SPC AC 180041
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible tonight
across parts of the lower Mississippi into Tennessee Valleys and
adjacent Gulf Coast vicinity.
...01Z Update...
Downstream of building mid/upper ridging across the northeast
Pacific through Alaska/Yukon vicinity, large-scale mid/upper trough
amplification is underway along a positively tilted axis roughly
extending across the Hudson Bay vicinity into the lee of the
southern Rockies. This has been preceded by the east-northeastward
acceleration of initially significant troughing emerging from the
southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific, which is becoming
increasingly sheared across the southern tier of the United States.
One still notable embedded short wave perturbation is in the process
of accelerating east-northeast of the southern Great Plains, and
forecast to approach the southern Appalachians by 12Z Saturday.
In response to the aforementioned short wave, low-level warm
advection now overspreading the southeastern Great Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley will continue to develop eastward tonight. Even
with a sizable westerly component to the low-level wind fields, it
appears that elevated moisture return emanating from a slowly
modifying boundary layer over the Gulf of Mexico will contribute to
weak destabilization. Latest model output continues to suggest that
this may become sufficient for scattered, generally weak,
thunderstorm activity as cooling aloft begins to overspread areas
across and east/southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by around
05-06Z.
..Kerr.. 01/18/2025
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 171717
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on
Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low.
...Northern Florida/Florida Panhandle...
A large upper-level trough will amplify through the period on
Saturday with eventual phasing of the southern stream and polar jet
across the Southeast by 12Z Sunday. Low-level flow will be mostly
weak through the day Saturday which will keep better low-level
moisture offshore. Saturday night, low-level flow will start to
strengthen which may bring mid 60s dewpoints inland across the
Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula. As the upper-level
jet phases and consolidates, a surface low will start to deepen
across the Southeast with a sharpening cold front. Thunderstorm
activity is expected in the vicinity of this front Saturday night
into early Sunday. If any storms can remain along or ahead of the
surface front, a strong to isolated severe storm may be possible.
However, the orientation of the front would seem to favor mostly
anafrontal convection. Given the relatively weak instability
forecast, elevated thunderstorms will likely not pose any severe
weather threat despite the strongly sheared environment.
..Bentley.. 01/17/2025
WUUS02 PTSDY2
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
SPC AC 171908
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over the central
Florida Peninsula on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough will dominate the pattern across the
CONUS on Sunday. A continental polar airmass will be in place across
the majority of the CONUS which will limit thunderstorm potential.
The only exception will be the Florida Peninsula where some moisture
will remain ahead of a southward moving cold front. A few
thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and
persist through the morning, but forcing will shift well north of
the area by the afternoon which will likely bring an end to any
thunderstorm potential.
..Bentley.. 01/17/2025
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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