SPC AC 250046
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SOUTH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from
from eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas into western Oklahoma,
the Panhandles and West Texas. Very large hail is possible, along
with a few tornadoes.
...Central and southern Plains...
Scattered severe storms persist this evening over West TX including
the Panhandle, with very large/damaging hail in progress. Other
severe cells, some with tornadic circulation, persist over northwest
OK within a cluster, also with damaging hail and wind potential.
Given the uncapped air mass across most of these areas, storms
should persist for a few hours, and the increasing 850 mb winds out
of the south may favor right moving supercells. The 00Z AMA sounding
confirms the lack of inhibition, showing steep lapse rates through a
deep layer.
Isolated marginally severe storms also persist over eastern CO, and
north of the tornadic northwest OK cluster into southwest KS.
For more information, see mesoscale discussions 548, 549, 550, 551.
..Jewell.. 04/25/2025
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 241727
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma,
northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and
evening.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and
the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface
cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low
develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will
advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys,
and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area.
Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will
deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California
Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify
across the central U.S. through the period.
...Southern Plains...
Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of
the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front.
Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should
support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon,
particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate
afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale
ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of
hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development
expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain
convection through the overnight hours.
...Elsewhere...
Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms
capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected
across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and
ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is
expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any
severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local.
..Goss.. 04/24/2025
WUUS02 PTSDY2
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 241915
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas.
...Discussion...
Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central
and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface
baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas
and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across
the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with
ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward
progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain
roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for
storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as
heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale
subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple
of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or
wind are expected.
..Goss.. 04/24/2025
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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