Current SPC Activity Chart

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SPC Activity Chart
Hazard Thu (01/23) Fri (01/24) Sat (01/25) Sun (01/26) Mon (01/27) Tue (01/28) Wed (01/29) Thu (01/30)
Severe No Thunder No Thunder No Severe No Area No Area No Area No Area No Area
Fire Critical Elevated No Area No Area No Area No Area No Area No Area

Forecast Discussion - Convective Outlook

   SPC AC 240043

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

   Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm threat is negligible tonight.

   ...01z Update...

   Continental air mass dominates the majority of the CONUS this
   evening. Offshore flow and stable conditions will prevent deep
   convection along with any threat for lightning.

   ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025

    

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
   SPC AC 231718

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday.

   ...Synopsis...

   An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf will shift
   east, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by Saturday morning.
   Meanwhile, low-amplitude westerly flow will emerge east of the
   Rockies in the wake of the upper trough as another trough begins to
   dig across the western U.S. late in the period. At the surface, high
   pressure over the eastern U.S., and across the northern Rockies,
   will maintain a dry and stable airmass, precluding thunderstorm
   activity.

   ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025

   WUUS02 PTSDY2 

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
   SPC AC 231912

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0112 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...

   Upper ridging will build over the southern/central Rockies and
   adjacent Plains as an upper trough continues to deepen across the
   Pacific Coast vicinity. As this occurs, a surface low will move
   across northern Mexico. Resulting south/southeasterly low-level flow
   across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across
   portions of southern and southeastern TX. Within this warm advection
   regime, weak elevated instability is expected to develop due to cool
   temperatures aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This should
   be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms Saturday night/early Sunday
   across southeast TX and portions of the Middle and Upper TX Coasts.
   Severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time given a lack
   of surface-based instability.

   ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025

   WUUS03 PTSDY3 

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z