In April 2025, ENSO-neutral continued, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) covering most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. All of the latest weekly Niño index values were near zero, ranging from -0.2°C to +0.1°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures were mostly near average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 3], with above-average subsurface temperatures remaining at depth in the western Pacific [Fig. 4]. For the month, low-level and upper-level winds were near average across the equatorial Pacific. Convection remained suppressed near and west of the Date Line and was enhanced near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was ENSO-neutral.

The IRI and North American Multi-Model Ensemble anticipate ENSO-neutral will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer and early autumn 2025 [Fig. 6]. The forecast team also favors ENSO-neutral, especially through the summer, with chances nearing 50% during the autumn. The uncertainty increases at longer time horizons, with a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral and a 41% chance of La Niña during November 2025 - January 2026 (chances of El Niño are under 15%). In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), with chances exceeding 50% through August-October 2025 [Fig. 7].