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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

WW 63 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 232320Z - 240600Z
WW 0063 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 63
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
620 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southen and East-Central Arkansas
  Northern Louisiana
  East Texas

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 620 PM
  until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop along and ahead of
a cold front this evening. Supercells will be capable of producing
scattered large hail, with the largest stones potentially reaching
up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. Damaging winds may also occur with
any clusters that form later this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north
northeast of Monroe LA to 40 miles south southwest of Longview TX.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 61...WW 62...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.

...Gleason

  WW 62 SEVERE TSTM TX 232250Z - 240600Z
WW 0062 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 62
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
550 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 550 PM
  until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue developing along a
cold front through the evening, while posing a threat for mainly
scattered large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. Some risk for
strong to severe winds, potentially up to 60-70 mph, will also exist
if small clusters can form.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Austin
TX to 70 miles north northeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 61...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Gleason

  WW 61 SEVERE TSTM AL AR LA MS 232205Z - 240500Z
WW 0061 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 61
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northwest Alabama
  Southeast Arkansas
  Northeast Louisiana
  Central Mississippi

* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large
to very large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter are expected to
develop and spread eastward through the evening. Damaging winds up
to 60-70 mph may also occur, especially if convection can develop
into a line. A tornado or two also appears possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Muscle Shoals AL to 30 miles east southeast of Natchez MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26035.

...Gleason

  WW 60 TORNADO AR KY MO MS TN 232015Z - 240400Z
WW 0060 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 60
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
315 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Arkansas
  Southwest Kentucky
  Missouri Bootheel
  Northern Mississippi
  Western and Middle Tennessee

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon
over eastern Arkansas and spread eastward across the watch area
through the evening.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
concern with these storms.  However, sufficient low level shear will
pose some risk of a few tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Memphis TN
to 45 miles southeast of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.

...Hart

  WW 0063 Status Updates
WW 0063 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 63

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..JEWELL..03/24/25

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC001-011-013-025-027-039-041-043-069-073-079-095-103-139-
240140-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS             BRADLEY             CALHOUN             
CLEVELAND            COLUMBIA            DALLAS              
DESHA                DREW                JEFFERSON           
LAFAYETTE            LINCOLN             MONROE              
OUACHITA             UNION               


LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-240140-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE            BOSSIER             CADDO               
CALDWELL             CLAIBORNE           DE SOTO             
GRANT                JACKSON             LA SALLE            
LINCOLN              NATCHITOCHES        OUACHITA            
RED RIVER            SABINE              UNION               
WEBSTER              WINN                

  WW 0062 Status Updates
WW 0062 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 62

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..JEWELL..03/24/25

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 62 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC001-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-171-185-187-
209-213-225-259-281-287-289-293-299-309-313-331-349-395-453-455-
471-477-491-240140-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON             BASTROP             BELL                
BLANCO               BRAZOS              BURLESON            
BURNET               CALDWELL            COMAL               
CORYELL              FALLS               FREESTONE           
GILLESPIE            GRIMES              GUADALUPE           
HAYS                 HENDERSON           HOUSTON             
KENDALL              LAMPASAS            LEE                 
LEON                 LIMESTONE           LLANO               
MCLENNAN             MADISON             MILAM               
NAVARRO              ROBERTSON           TRAVIS              
TRINITY              WALKER              WASHINGTON          
WILLIAMSON           


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  WW 0061 Status Updates
WW 0061 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 61

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..SPC.03/24/25

ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC033-057-059-075-077-079-083-093-107-127-133-240140-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLBERT              FAYETTE             FRANKLIN            
LAMAR                LAUDERDALE          LAWRENCE            
LIMESTONE            MARION              PICKENS             
WALKER               WINSTON             


ARC003-017-240140-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ASHLEY               CHICOT              


LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-240140-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

CATAHOULA            CONCORDIA           EAST CARROLL        
FRANKLIN             MADISON             MOREHOUSE           
  WW 0060 Status Updates
WW 0060 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 60

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..SPC..03/24/25

ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 60 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC035-037-077-093-107-111-123-240140-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRITTENDEN           CROSS               LEE                 
MISSISSIPPI          PHILLIPS            POINSETT            
ST. FRANCIS          


KYC007-033-035-039-047-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-219-221-
240140-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALLARD              CALDWELL            CALLOWAY            
CARLISLE             CHRISTIAN           FULTON              
GRAVES               HICKMAN             LIVINGSTON          
LYON                 MCCRACKEN           MARSHALL            
TODD                 TRIGG               


MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-240140-

  MD 0257 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 60... FOR MID-SOUTH
MD 0257 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Tornado Watch 60...

Valid 232357Z - 240130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues.

SUMMARY...A concentrated corridor of supercells is expected across
portions of the Mid-South this evening.

DISCUSSION...LLJ is shifting southeast early this evening along the
southern fringe of a trough that is shifting towards the lower Ohio
Valley. Large-scale synoptic front is expected to advance across
western KY/TN/eastern AR, but pre-frontal confluence appears to be
aiding scattered-numerous robust updrafts, including supercells,
along a corridor from southeast AR-northern MS-northwest AL. Most of
the longer-lived updrafts are producing hail and this should
continue into the mid-evening hours. Additionally, forecast
soundings suggest some tornado risk where dew points have risen into
the lower 60s, as SBCAPE in this environment is fairly substantial
within a strongly sheared environment. With time this corridor is
expected to gradually sag southeast.

..Darrow.. 03/23/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33329217 34059008 35018743 34308716 32779056 33329217 

  MD 0256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
MD 0256 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Areas affected...central into eastern Texas...northern Louisiana and
southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 232229Z - 240100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along the cold front
from southern Arkansas southwestward toward San Antonio. Large hail
is likely and localized wind damage is possible.

DISCUSSION...Relatively strong instability has developed ahead of
the cold front, owing to strong heating, steep lapse rates aloft and
dewpoints in the 60s F. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg, which will certainly support robust updrafts.
Effective deep-layer shear is averaging around 40 kt over northern
areas, with a bit weaker flow over parts of TX. However, as storms
develop, they will likely propagate rightward off the hodograph,
resulting in clusters of severe storms. Spotty reports of 2.00" hail
appear likely across the region with the strongest cells. The entire
threat area is expected to remain within a relatively narrow
southwest-northeast zone, though a gradual southward propagation is
expected. As such, much of the area is being considered for a severe
thunderstorm watch.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/23/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29179825 29089917 29389961 29789976 30099967 30299952
            30789859 31289752 31949617 33579287 33459225 33059198
            32379199 31969256 29179825 

  SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a
couple of tornadoes could also occur.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities
were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN,
where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the
middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast
soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this
evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are
warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe
risk.

..Weinman.. 03/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/

...Lower MS Valley...
A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today,
with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL.  To the south of this
feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf
moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR.  As
continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur,
sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm
development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. 
These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level
lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.  Strong deep-layer shear
will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening
low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are
the primary concern.  Storms will track eastward into middle TN by
early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. 
Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a
greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening.  Activity is
expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the
03-05z period.

...East TX...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into
north-central TX.  This boundary will continue southward through the
day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm
sector to the south of the front.  CAM solutions are in strong
agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of
the front by early evening.  Forecast soundings show sufficient
vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail.

  SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS 
on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the
western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday.
Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will
accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge,
overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter,
guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter
the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central
Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However,
medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday,
resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the
second trough evolution.

...D5/Thursday...
The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return
flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of
New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no
probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range
from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support
continued drying of fuels.

...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday...
Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across
portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level
trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving
mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable
disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall
pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time
frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of
potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas
on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been
introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the
most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later
outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain.

..Karstens.. 03/23/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

 






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