WW 345 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 282255Z - 290600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
555 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South Central Kansas
Northwest Oklahoma
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from
555 PM until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over western Kansas will build southeastward
through the evening, posing a risk of large hail and perhaps a
tornado. Storms may eventually organize into a line, increasing the
risk of locally damaging wind gusts as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast
of Dodge City KS to 65 miles southwest of Enid OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...WW 342...WW
343...WW 344...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Hart
WW 344 SEVERE TSTM LA MS 282020Z - 290200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 344
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Louisiana
Southern Mississippi
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM
until 900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...At least an isolated downburst/damaging wind threat will
exist through late afternoon and early evening across the region
within a very moist and unstable air mass.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south
southwest of Natchez MS to 50 miles east southeast of Pine Belt MS.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...WW 342...WW 343...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
20025.
...Guyer
WW 343 SEVERE TSTM TX 281945Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 343
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and South-Central Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms including supercells
capable of large hail are expected this afternoon across the region,
as the air mass further destabilizes after early day storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south
southwest of San Angelo TX to 20 miles southeast of Waco TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...WW 342...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Guyer
WW 342 TORNADO CO KS OK 281915Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 342
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Colorado
Western Kansas
Oklahoma Panhandle
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 215 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells are expected to develop
across the region this afternoon, moving generally southeastward
through early/mid-evening. Large hail should be the most common
severe risk, with tornado potential increasing near/east of the
Colorado/Kansas border vicinity.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Burlington
CO to 30 miles east southeast of Guymon OK. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 30025.
...Guyer
WW 341 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 281905Z - 290200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
105 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
East-Central and Southeast Colorado
Northeast New Mexico
Western Oklahoma Panhandle
Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM
until 800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected to
develop through the afternoon/early evening, posing a large hail
risk and some severe-wind potential.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of
Limon CO to 40 miles west southwest of Dalhart TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Guyer
WW 0345 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 345
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031.
..GRAMS..05/29/25
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 345
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-047-057-077-083-095-097-151-290140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS FORD HARPER
HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA
PRATT
OKC003-011-043-045-047-053-059-073-093-151-153-290140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BLAINE DEWEY
ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT
HARPER KINGFISHER MAJOR
WOODS WOODWARD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
WW 0344 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 344
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE ASD
TO 30 NNE PIB TO 20 NW HEZ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029.
..GRAMS..05/29/25
ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 344
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC023-029-039-041-047-059-061-111-127-129-131-153-290140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE COPIAH GEORGE
GREENE HARRISON JACKSON
JASPER PERRY SIMPSON
SMITH STONE WAYNE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0343 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 343
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SJT TO
45 N JCT TO 10 NW BWD TO 30 E BWD TO 45 ESE ACT.
..THORNTON..05/29/25
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 343
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC021-027-031-049-053-099-171-209-259-265-267-281-299-307-319-
327-331-333-411-413-435-453-491-290140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BASTROP BELL BLANCO
BROWN BURNET CORYELL
GILLESPIE HAYS KENDALL
KERR KIMBLE LAMPASAS
LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON
MENARD MILAM MILLS
SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SUTTON
TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0342 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 342
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LAA
TO 15 NNE GCK.
..GRAMS..05/29/25
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 342
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-099-290140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT PROWERS
KSC055-067-069-075-081-093-119-129-175-187-189-290140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY GRANT GRAY
HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY
MEADE MORTON SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS
OKC007-139-290140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER TEXAS
WW 0341 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 341
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW COS
TO 10 W LAA.
..GRAMS..05/29/25
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 341
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC025-041-071-089-101-290140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROWLEY EL PASO LAS ANIMAS
OTERO PUEBLO
NMC007-021-059-290140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX HARDING UNION
OKC025-290140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
MD 1031 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345... FOR NORTHWEST OK AND THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Areas affected...northwest OK and the northeast TX Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345...
Valid 290004Z - 290130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345
continues.
SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected downstream of an
accelerating cluster from the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. Severe
gusts, large hail, and a brief tornado are all possible.
DISCUSSION...An intense, nearly-stationary supercell has been
anchored over Beaver County, OK. It is in the process of being
merged with an upstream cluster. Primary severe threat through
mid-evening is expected downstream of this merging complex, aided by
a ribbon of higher theta-e coinciding with a strengthening low-level
jet, already sampled by area VWP data. Severe wind-driven large hail
appears increasingly likely into northwest OK as this leading
cluster moves east-southeast. A brief tornado is possible given
enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, but may be curtailed by the
outflow-dominated cluster.
..Grams/Hart.. 05/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37080031 37029941 36659835 36129790 35759843 35799924
35889995 36090063 36380085 36700099 37080031
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 1030 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Areas affected...portions of central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 343...
Valid 282326Z - 290100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 343
continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) continues
within WW343.
DISCUSSION...Two strong supercells continue within WW343 across
central Texas this evening, with a history of producing hail up to 2
inches. The environment within this region continues to be very
favorably unstable, with steep lapse rates, and strong deep layer
shear. This will continue to support strong supercells over the next
few hours.
Some mesoscale enhancement has occurred with the cell over
Williamson/Travis counties as it interacted with a remnant outflow
boundary. This storm produced hail up to 2 inches as it topped out
around 50kft. It will continue southward and local extension of
WW343 may be needed to account for this threat.
..Thornton.. 05/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31420016 31989977 32219914 31979867 31499796 31019725
30779713 30409734 30129747 30049780 30099839 30599949
31420016
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
MD 1029 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344... FOR EASTERN LA...SOUTHERN MS...FAR SOUTHWEST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 1029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Areas affected...eastern LA...southern MS...far southwest AL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344...
Valid 282253Z - 290100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344
continues.
SUMMARY...Localized strong gusts remain possible with a
northward-moving line across southern Mississippi and far southwest
Alabama, and an eastward-moving cluster across far southeast
Louisiana. An additional watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A northward-moving west/east-oriented line that began
in southeast LA/MS has progressed across southern MS into a bit of
southwest AL. Measured wind gusts have only reached 30-35 mph at
several sites as the line passed, given its orientation and weak
low-level flow regime. Meanwhile, the north/south-oriented line
moving east in southern LA has weakened across the northern portion
as it impinges on the convective overturned airmass in the wake of
the MS line. Any strong gust potential with this cluster should be
confined to near-coastal portions of southeast LA where a pocket of
mid 80s surface temperatures persists.
..Grams/Hart.. 05/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 31429131 32039101 32459021 32458859 31778770 31558774
30738813 29329033 29629162 30619143 31169133 31429131
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today across
parts of the southern/central Plains. Isolated wind damage may occur
across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
...20z Update...
Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook on the western edge
for ongoing convection. Scattered severe storms, currently
developing across eastern CO and northeast NM, will gradually expand
in coverage/intensity eastward across the southern and central High
Plains this afternoon/evening. Supercells with all hazards are
probable ahead of MCS development and continuation of severe
potential downstream over the southern Plains tonight.
Across the Southeast states, sporadic damaging gusts are possible as
several clusters of strong to severe storms continue eastward along
a broad frontal zone. The primary focus for locally higher damaging
gust potential remains across portions of the lower MS Valley and
Gulf Coast regions through this evening.
No changes were made to the risk areas over western and central TX,
see the prior outlook for more information.
..Lyons.. 05/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025/
...Eastern Colorado/Kansas to western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles...
A closed upper low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will
drift slowly eastward today. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded
on the western periphery of this low will move southeastward across
the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Modest
low-level moisture return should occur over parts of the
southern/central High Plains ahead of this shortwave trough, with a
narrow zone of weak to moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop across
eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/northern
Texas Panhandles by mid-afternoon. Multiple thunderstorms should
initiate across eastern Colorado/southwest Nebraska and vicinity by
18-21Z as large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough
overspreads the developing warm sector.
Weak low-level flow is forecast to veer to west-northwesterly and
gradually strengthen with height through mid-levels. Around 30-40 kt
of deep-layer shear should support mainly supercell structures, with
an initial threat for large to isolated very large hail. With time,
a bowing complex should evolve from parts of western/southern Kansas
into northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with a
greater threat for scattered severe winds apparent this evening. A
few tornadoes may also occur in a zone either side of the
Colorado/Kansas border into southwest Kansas, where low-level
shear/SRH should maximize early this evening.
...Western North Texas to North/Central Texas...
A remnant MCV over west Texas will drift slowly eastward today
towards north/central Texas. At least some destabilization will
occur through this afternoon along/near a remnant surface front
draped generally west to east over central Texas. Most
high-resolution guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by
mid-afternoon in close proximity to the MCV. Modest enhancement to
the mid-level westerlies associated with this feature should support
enough deep-layer shear for updraft organization and some
supercell/large hail potential initially. With time, a small bowing
cluster may develop and pose more of a severe wind threat through
the late afternoon and evening as convection spreads generally
east-southeastward into central Texas before eventually weakening. A
tornado or two may also occur, as low-level shear will be modestly
enhanced by the MCV.
...Far West Texas and Southeast New Mexico...
This region will remain generally displaced to the west/behind
large-scale ascent associated with an eastward-moving MCV over west
Texas, and upper troughing over the north-central states. Still,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop through peak
afternoon heating across the higher terrain of the Davis/Guadalupe
Mountains and vicinity with large hail as the primary hazard.
...Upper Texas Coast to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A loosely organized complex of storms across east Texas and upper
Texas coast should drift eastward, with additional
development/intensification this afternoon preceding it to the east.
While locally damaging winds will be possible across a broad
regional extent, a somewhat more focused potential for wind damage
may exist within a very moist air mass and instability gradient
(largely influenced by storms in prior days) across southern
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...New Mexico...
Limited mid-level moisture across the upper Rio Grande Valley in New
Mexico will keep a rather low dry thunderstorm threat across
southern and central New Mexico where fuels remain quite dry. Less
receptive fuels in addition to showers and thunderstorms on the
wetter side should limit fire spread potential along and east of the
New Mexico central mountain range.
...Northwest...
An upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will bring a
cold front into the region Thursday. Dry, post-frontal flow with
some downslope enhancement lee of the Cascades is expected in the
Columbia Basin. Although pockets of dry grasses exist across the
region, ongoing green up and ERCs in the 60-70th percentile range
will limit significant fire spread within overall fuelscape.
..Williams.. 05/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited on Thursday. As a
shortwave trough clips the Pacific Northwest, westerly flow will
increase across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and the
Blue Mountains into the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Fuels in these
regions are not quite ready to support fire spread, but this will
likely lead to a period of drying.
Moisture will continue to increase into New Mexico, with better
chances for wetting rainfall on Thursday. In addition, humidity will
increase with better recovery in the overnight periods. As such, no
isolated dry thunderstorm chances are needed on Thursday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
...Southwest...
Surface high pressure pressing southward into the Southern Plains
will facilitate low-level moisture transport into southern New
Mexico from Day 3/Friday through the weekend. Daytime heating and
instability over higher terrain will support some dry thunderstorm
development with little rainfall over the eastern Mogollon Rim where
fuels remain receptive to spread. A 10 percent dry thunderstorm area
was largely maintained for Day 3/Friday. A similar meteorological
setup exists across central New Mexico but slightly deeper moisture
and slow storm movement precludes addition of dry thunderstorm
probabilities for Day 4/Saturday.
A cut-off low near Baja California will aid in northward transport
of deeper tropical moisture into southern Arizona and New Mexico
through the weekend, supporting additional showers and thunderstorms
by Day 5/Sunday. Ensemble guidance indicates anomalously high PWAT
values moving into the region for the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time
frame in conjunction with better forcing as the cut-off low ejects
into the Four Corners region. This could support widespread,
potentially wetting rains for much of the Southwest, temporarily
mitigating fire weather concerns where dry fuels remain. Fire
weather threat reemerges Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday across the
Southwest with dry and breezy conditions within an area of stronger
mid-level flow on the southern periphery of an upper-level trough
across the western U.S.
...Northwest and Western Great Basin...
Broad ridging across the region is expected to bring record warmth
to portions of the western U.S. through Day 4/Saturday, accelerating
the drying/curing of fuels. A Pacific Northwest trough will bring
breezy downslope winds across portions of the Columbia Basin on
Saturday, allowing for at least Elevated fire weather conditions but
within a marginal relative humidity and fuel environment. A strong
cold front associated with a deepening trough across the West will
bring breezy and dry post-frontal conditions into southeastern
Oregon and northwestern Nevada Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday. However, fuels
remain in green up phase and should limit significant fire spread.
..Williams.. 05/28/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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