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U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

WW 345 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 282255Z - 290600Z
WW 0345 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
555 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  South Central Kansas
  Northwest Oklahoma

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from
  555 PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over western Kansas will build southeastward
through the evening, posing a risk of large hail and perhaps a
tornado.  Storms may eventually organize into a line, increasing the
risk of locally damaging wind gusts as well.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast
of Dodge City KS to 65 miles southwest of Enid OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...WW 342...WW
343...WW 344...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.

...Hart

  WW 344 SEVERE TSTM LA MS 282020Z - 290200Z
WW 0344 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 344
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Louisiana
  Southern Mississippi

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM
  until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...At least an isolated downburst/damaging wind threat will
exist through late afternoon and early evening across the region
within a very moist and unstable air mass.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south
southwest of Natchez MS to 50 miles east southeast of Pine Belt MS.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...WW 342...WW 343...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
20025.

...Guyer

  WW 343 SEVERE TSTM TX 281945Z - 290300Z
WW 0343 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 343
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and South-Central Texas

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM
  until 1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms including supercells
capable of large hail are expected this afternoon across the region,
as the air mass further destabilizes after early day storms.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south
southwest of San Angelo TX to 20 miles southeast of Waco TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...WW 342...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29025.

...Guyer

  WW 342 TORNADO CO KS OK 281915Z - 290300Z
WW 0342 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 342
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Colorado
  Western Kansas
  Oklahoma Panhandle

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 215 PM
  until 1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 3 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells are expected to develop
across the region this afternoon, moving generally southeastward
through early/mid-evening. Large hail should be the most common
severe risk, with tornado potential increasing near/east of the
Colorado/Kansas border vicinity.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Burlington
CO to 30 miles east southeast of Guymon OK. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 30025.

...Guyer

  WW 341 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 281905Z - 290200Z
WW 0341 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
105 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  East-Central and Southeast Colorado
  Northeast New Mexico
  Western Oklahoma Panhandle
  Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM
  until 800 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected to
develop through the afternoon/early evening, posing a large hail
risk and some severe-wind potential.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of
Limon CO to 40 miles west southwest of Dalhart TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.

...Guyer

  WW 0345 Status Updates
WW 0345 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 345

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031.

..GRAMS..05/29/25

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 345 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC007-025-033-047-057-077-083-095-097-151-290140-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER               CLARK               COMANCHE            
EDWARDS              FORD                HARPER              
HODGEMAN             KINGMAN             KIOWA               
PRATT                


OKC003-011-043-045-047-053-059-073-093-151-153-290140-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA              BLAINE              DEWEY               
ELLIS                GARFIELD            GRANT               
HARPER               KINGFISHER          MAJOR               
WOODS                WOODWARD            


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
  WW 0344 Status Updates
WW 0344 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 344

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE ASD
TO 30 NNE PIB TO 20 NW HEZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029.

..GRAMS..05/29/25

ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 344 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MSC023-029-039-041-047-059-061-111-127-129-131-153-290140-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARKE               COPIAH              GEORGE              
GREENE               HARRISON            JACKSON             
JASPER               PERRY               SIMPSON             
SMITH                STONE               WAYNE               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  WW 0343 Status Updates
WW 0343 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 343

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SJT TO
45 N JCT TO 10 NW BWD TO 30 E BWD TO 45 ESE ACT.

..THORNTON..05/29/25

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 343 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC021-027-031-049-053-099-171-209-259-265-267-281-299-307-319-
327-331-333-411-413-435-453-491-290140-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BASTROP              BELL                BLANCO              
BROWN                BURNET              CORYELL             
GILLESPIE            HAYS                KENDALL             
KERR                 KIMBLE              LAMPASAS            
LLANO                MCCULLOCH           MASON               
MENARD               MILAM               MILLS               
SAN SABA             SCHLEICHER          SUTTON              
TRAVIS               WILLIAMSON          


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  WW 0342 Status Updates
WW 0342 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 342

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LAA
TO 15 NNE GCK.

..GRAMS..05/29/25

ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...AMA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 342 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

COC009-011-099-290140-

CO 
.    COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BACA                 BENT                PROWERS             


KSC055-067-069-075-081-093-119-129-175-187-189-290140-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FINNEY               GRANT               GRAY                
HAMILTON             HASKELL             KEARNY              
MEADE                MORTON              SEWARD              
STANTON              STEVENS             


OKC007-139-290140-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEAVER               TEXAS               
  WW 0341 Status Updates
WW 0341 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 341

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW COS
TO 10 W LAA.

..GRAMS..05/29/25

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...AMA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 341 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

COC025-041-071-089-101-290140-

CO 
.    COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CROWLEY              EL PASO             LAS ANIMAS          
OTERO                PUEBLO              


NMC007-021-059-290140-

NM 
.    NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLFAX               HARDING             UNION               


OKC025-290140-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CIMARRON             


  MD 1031 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345... FOR NORTHWEST OK AND THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE
MD 1031 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...northwest OK and the northeast TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345...

Valid 290004Z - 290130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345
continues.

SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected downstream of an
accelerating cluster from the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. Severe
gusts, large hail, and a brief tornado are all possible.

DISCUSSION...An intense, nearly-stationary supercell has been
anchored over Beaver County, OK. It is in the process of being
merged with an upstream cluster. Primary severe threat through
mid-evening is expected downstream of this merging complex, aided by
a ribbon of higher theta-e coinciding with a strengthening low-level
jet, already sampled by area VWP data. Severe wind-driven large hail
appears increasingly likely into northwest OK as this leading
cluster moves east-southeast. A brief tornado is possible given
enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, but may be curtailed by the
outflow-dominated cluster.

..Grams/Hart.. 05/29/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37080031 37029941 36659835 36129790 35759843 35799924
            35889995 36090063 36380085 36700099 37080031 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

  MD 1030 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
MD 1030 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 343...

Valid 282326Z - 290100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 343
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) continues
within WW343.

DISCUSSION...Two strong supercells continue within WW343 across
central Texas this evening, with a history of producing hail up to 2
inches. The environment within this region continues to be very
favorably unstable, with steep lapse rates, and strong deep layer
shear. This will continue to support strong supercells over the next
few hours. 

Some mesoscale enhancement has occurred with the cell over
Williamson/Travis counties as it interacted with a remnant outflow
boundary. This storm produced hail up to 2 inches as it topped out
around 50kft. It will continue southward and local extension of
WW343 may be needed to account for this threat.

..Thornton.. 05/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31420016 31989977 32219914 31979867 31499796 31019725
            30779713 30409734 30129747 30049780 30099839 30599949
            31420016 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

  MD 1029 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344... FOR EASTERN LA...SOUTHERN MS...FAR SOUTHWEST AL
MD 1029 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...eastern LA...southern MS...far southwest AL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344...

Valid 282253Z - 290100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344
continues.

SUMMARY...Localized strong gusts remain possible with a
northward-moving line across southern Mississippi and far southwest
Alabama, and an eastward-moving cluster across far southeast
Louisiana. An additional watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A northward-moving west/east-oriented line that began
in southeast LA/MS has progressed across southern MS into a bit of
southwest AL. Measured wind gusts have only reached 30-35 mph at
several sites as the line passed, given its orientation and weak
low-level flow regime. Meanwhile, the north/south-oriented line
moving east in southern LA has weakened across the northern portion
as it impinges on the convective overturned airmass in the wake of
the MS line. Any strong gust potential with this cluster should be
confined to near-coastal portions of southeast LA where a pocket of
mid 80s surface temperatures persists.

..Grams/Hart.. 05/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   31429131 32039101 32459021 32458859 31778770 31558774
            30738813 29329033 29629162 30619143 31169133 31429131 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

  SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today across
parts of the southern/central Plains. Isolated wind damage may occur
across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

...20z Update...
Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook on the western edge
for ongoing convection. Scattered severe storms, currently
developing across eastern CO and northeast NM, will gradually expand
in coverage/intensity eastward across the southern and central High
Plains this afternoon/evening. Supercells with all hazards are
probable ahead of MCS development and continuation of severe
potential downstream over the southern Plains tonight.

Across the Southeast states, sporadic damaging gusts are possible as
several clusters of strong to severe storms continue eastward along
a broad frontal zone. The primary focus for locally higher damaging
gust potential remains across portions of the lower MS Valley and
Gulf Coast regions through this evening.

No changes were made to the risk areas over western and central TX,
see the prior outlook for more information.

..Lyons.. 05/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025/

...Eastern Colorado/Kansas to western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles...
A closed upper low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will
drift slowly eastward today. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded
on the western periphery of this low will move southeastward across
the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Modest
low-level moisture return should occur over parts of the
southern/central High Plains ahead of this shortwave trough, with a
narrow zone of weak to moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop across
eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/northern
Texas Panhandles by mid-afternoon. Multiple thunderstorms should
initiate across eastern Colorado/southwest Nebraska and vicinity by
18-21Z as large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough
overspreads the developing warm sector.

Weak low-level flow is forecast to veer to west-northwesterly and
gradually strengthen with height through mid-levels. Around 30-40 kt
of deep-layer shear should support mainly supercell structures, with
an initial threat for large to isolated very large hail. With time,
a bowing complex should evolve from parts of western/southern Kansas
into northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with a
greater threat for scattered severe winds apparent this evening. A
few tornadoes may also occur in a zone either side of the
Colorado/Kansas border into southwest Kansas, where low-level
shear/SRH should maximize early this evening.

...Western North Texas to North/Central Texas...
A remnant MCV over west Texas will drift slowly eastward today
towards north/central Texas. At least some destabilization will
occur through this afternoon along/near a remnant surface front
draped generally west to east over central Texas. Most
high-resolution guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by
mid-afternoon in close proximity to the MCV. Modest enhancement to
the mid-level westerlies associated with this feature should support
enough deep-layer shear for updraft organization and some
supercell/large hail potential initially. With time, a small bowing
cluster may develop and pose more of a severe wind threat through
the late afternoon and evening as convection spreads generally
east-southeastward into central Texas before eventually weakening. A
tornado or two may also occur, as low-level shear will be modestly
enhanced by the MCV.

...Far West Texas and Southeast New Mexico...
This region will remain generally displaced to the west/behind
large-scale ascent associated with an eastward-moving MCV over west
Texas, and upper troughing over the north-central states. Still,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop through peak
afternoon heating across the higher terrain of the Davis/Guadalupe
Mountains and vicinity with large hail as the primary hazard.

...Upper Texas Coast to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A loosely organized complex of storms across east Texas and upper
Texas coast should drift eastward, with additional
development/intensification this afternoon preceding it to the east.
While locally damaging winds will be possible across a broad
regional extent, a somewhat more focused potential for wind damage
may exist within a very moist air mass and instability gradient
(largely influenced by storms in prior days) across southern
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

  SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...New Mexico...
Limited mid-level moisture across the upper Rio Grande Valley in New
Mexico will keep a rather low dry thunderstorm threat across
southern and central New Mexico where fuels remain quite dry. Less
receptive fuels in addition to showers and thunderstorms on the
wetter side should limit fire spread potential along and east of the
New Mexico central mountain range.

...Northwest...
An upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest will bring a
cold front into the region Thursday. Dry, post-frontal flow with 
some downslope enhancement lee of the Cascades is expected in the
Columbia Basin. Although pockets of dry grasses exist across the
region, ongoing green up and ERCs in the 60-70th percentile range
will limit significant fire spread within overall fuelscape.

..Williams.. 05/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited on Thursday. As a
shortwave trough clips the Pacific Northwest, westerly flow will
increase across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and the
Blue Mountains into the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Fuels in these
regions are not quite ready to support fire spread, but this will
likely lead to a period of drying. 

Moisture will continue to increase into New Mexico, with better
chances for wetting rainfall on Thursday. In addition, humidity will
increase with better recovery in the overnight periods. As such, no
isolated dry thunderstorm chances are needed on Thursday.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

  SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

...Southwest...
Surface high pressure pressing southward into the Southern Plains
will facilitate low-level moisture transport into southern New
Mexico from Day 3/Friday through the weekend. Daytime heating and
instability over higher terrain will support some dry thunderstorm
development with little rainfall over the eastern Mogollon Rim where
fuels remain receptive to spread. A 10 percent dry thunderstorm area
was largely maintained for Day 3/Friday. A similar meteorological
setup exists across central New Mexico but slightly deeper moisture
and slow storm movement precludes addition of dry thunderstorm
probabilities for Day 4/Saturday.

A cut-off low near Baja California will aid in northward transport 
of deeper tropical moisture into southern Arizona and New Mexico
through the weekend, supporting additional showers and thunderstorms
by Day 5/Sunday. Ensemble guidance indicates anomalously high PWAT
values moving into the region for the Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time
frame in conjunction with better forcing as the cut-off low ejects
into the Four Corners region. This could support widespread,
potentially wetting rains for much of the Southwest, temporarily
mitigating fire weather concerns where dry fuels remain. Fire
weather threat reemerges Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday across the
Southwest with dry and breezy conditions within an area of stronger
mid-level flow on the southern periphery of an upper-level trough
across the western U.S.

...Northwest and Western Great Basin...
Broad ridging across the region is expected to bring record warmth
to portions of the western U.S. through Day 4/Saturday, accelerating
the drying/curing of fuels. A Pacific Northwest trough will bring
breezy downslope winds across portions of the Columbia Basin on
Saturday, allowing for at least Elevated fire weather conditions but
within a marginal relative humidity and fuel environment. A strong
cold front associated with a deepening trough across the West will
bring breezy and dry post-frontal conditions into southeastern
Oregon and northwestern Nevada Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday. However, fuels
remain in green up phase and should limit significant fire spread.

..Williams.. 05/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

 






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