WW 63 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 232320Z - 240600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 63
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
620 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southen and East-Central Arkansas
Northern Louisiana
East Texas
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 620 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop along and ahead of
a cold front this evening. Supercells will be capable of producing
scattered large hail, with the largest stones potentially reaching
up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. Damaging winds may also occur with
any clusters that form later this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north
northeast of Monroe LA to 40 miles south southwest of Longview TX.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 61...WW 62...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Gleason
WW 62 SEVERE TSTM TX 232250Z - 240600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 62
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
550 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 550 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue developing along a
cold front through the evening, while posing a threat for mainly
scattered large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. Some risk for
strong to severe winds, potentially up to 60-70 mph, will also exist
if small clusters can form.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Austin
TX to 70 miles north northeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 61...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Gleason
WW 61 SEVERE TSTM AL AR LA MS 232205Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 61
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Alabama
Southeast Arkansas
Northeast Louisiana
Central Mississippi
* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large
to very large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter are expected to
develop and spread eastward through the evening. Damaging winds up
to 60-70 mph may also occur, especially if convection can develop
into a line. A tornado or two also appears possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Muscle Shoals AL to 30 miles east southeast of Natchez MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26035.
...Gleason
WW 60 TORNADO AR KY MO MS TN 232015Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 60
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
315 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Arkansas
Southwest Kentucky
Missouri Bootheel
Northern Mississippi
Western and Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon
over eastern Arkansas and spread eastward across the watch area
through the evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
concern with these storms. However, sufficient low level shear will
pose some risk of a few tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Memphis TN
to 45 miles southeast of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Hart
WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..03/24/25
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-025-027-039-041-043-069-073-079-095-103-139-
240140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LINCOLN MONROE
OUACHITA UNION
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-
119-127-240140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER SABINE UNION
WEBSTER WINN
WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..03/24/25
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 62
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-171-185-187-
209-213-225-259-281-287-289-293-299-309-313-331-349-395-453-455-
471-477-491-240140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BASTROP BELL
BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON
BURNET CALDWELL COMAL
CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE
GILLESPIE GRIMES GUADALUPE
HAYS HENDERSON HOUSTON
KENDALL LAMPASAS LEE
LEON LIMESTONE LLANO
MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM
NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS
TRINITY WALKER WASHINGTON
WILLIAMSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC.03/24/25
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-057-059-075-077-079-083-093-107-127-133-240140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FAYETTE FRANKLIN
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MARION PICKENS
WALKER WINSTON
ARC003-017-240140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-240140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 60
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..03/24/25
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 60
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC035-037-077-093-107-111-123-240140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE
MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT
ST. FRANCIS
KYC007-033-035-039-047-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-219-221-
240140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON
LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
TODD TRIGG
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-240140-
MD 0257 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 60... FOR MID-SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 0257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Areas affected...Mid-South
Concerning...Tornado Watch 60...
Valid 232357Z - 240130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues.
SUMMARY...A concentrated corridor of supercells is expected across
portions of the Mid-South this evening.
DISCUSSION...LLJ is shifting southeast early this evening along the
southern fringe of a trough that is shifting towards the lower Ohio
Valley. Large-scale synoptic front is expected to advance across
western KY/TN/eastern AR, but pre-frontal confluence appears to be
aiding scattered-numerous robust updrafts, including supercells,
along a corridor from southeast AR-northern MS-northwest AL. Most of
the longer-lived updrafts are producing hail and this should
continue into the mid-evening hours. Additionally, forecast
soundings suggest some tornado risk where dew points have risen into
the lower 60s, as SBCAPE in this environment is fairly substantial
within a strongly sheared environment. With time this corridor is
expected to gradually sag southeast.
..Darrow.. 03/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33329217 34059008 35018743 34308716 32779056 33329217
MD 0256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Areas affected...central into eastern Texas...northern Louisiana and
southern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 232229Z - 240100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along the cold front
from southern Arkansas southwestward toward San Antonio. Large hail
is likely and localized wind damage is possible.
DISCUSSION...Relatively strong instability has developed ahead of
the cold front, owing to strong heating, steep lapse rates aloft and
dewpoints in the 60s F. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg, which will certainly support robust updrafts.
Effective deep-layer shear is averaging around 40 kt over northern
areas, with a bit weaker flow over parts of TX. However, as storms
develop, they will likely propagate rightward off the hodograph,
resulting in clusters of severe storms. Spotty reports of 2.00" hail
appear likely across the region with the strongest cells. The entire
threat area is expected to remain within a relatively narrow
southwest-northeast zone, though a gradual southward propagation is
expected. As such, much of the area is being considered for a severe
thunderstorm watch.
..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29179825 29089917 29389961 29789976 30099967 30299952
30789859 31289752 31949617 33579287 33459225 33059198
32379199 31969256 29179825
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a
couple of tornadoes could also occur.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities
were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN,
where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the
middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast
soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this
evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are
warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe
risk.
..Weinman.. 03/23/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/
...Lower MS Valley...
A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today,
with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this
feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf
moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As
continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur,
sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm
development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY.
These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level
lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear
will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening
low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are
the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by
early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS.
Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a
greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is
expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the
03-05z period.
...East TX...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into
north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the
day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm
sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong
agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of
the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient
vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail.
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Valid 251200Z - 311200Z
A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS
on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the
western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday.
Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will
accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge,
overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter,
guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter
the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central
Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However,
medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday,
resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the
second trough evolution.
...D5/Thursday...
The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return
flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of
New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no
probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range
from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support
continued drying of fuels.
...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday...
Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across
portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level
trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving
mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable
disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall
pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time
frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of
potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas
on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been
introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the
most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later
outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain.
..Karstens.. 03/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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