ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 201650
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025
Valid 201700Z - 211200Z
...Northeastern Minnesota...
Recent precipitation in addition to cool temperatures and higher
relative humidity have mitigated the fire weather threat across the
Red River Valley of the North. Elevated fire weather conditions
including east winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity as low as 20
percent are still expected across northeastern Minnesota where fuels
remain marginally dry/receptive to spread.
..Williams.. 05/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025/
...Synopsis...
A midlevel low will drift slowly northward across portions of the
northern Plains, while an accompanying surface low advances eastward
from the Mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. North
of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient will favor
breezy/gusty easterly surface winds across parts of the Upper MS
Valley. Over northern MN, these breezy/gusty surface winds will
combine with around 25 percent afternoon RH, and given modestly
receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions can be expected.
On the backside of the surface low, locally dry/breezy post-frontal
conditions will develop across parts of the central High Plains.
While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a
limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH atop
receptive fuels should generally limit the fire-weather risk.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 201949
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
A departing mid-level jet should support localized downslope
enhancement of winds and drying along the Colorado Front Range
Wednesday. However, fuels are not particularly receptive to fire
spread with ongoing green up along the Front Range, mitigating
overall fire weather threat. Otherwise, no widespread fire weather
concerns across the CONUS.
..Williams.. 05/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025/
...Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced westerly midlevel flow will be in place across
the central Rockies on Wednesday. This will promote locally
dry/breezy conditions along the CO Front Range during the afternoon.
While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the
overall risk appears too localized for highlights. Elsewhere across
the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm, dry, and windy conditions
should limit fire-weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 192022
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give
way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen
across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the
weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will
de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high
pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the
week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of
moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward
the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected
through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future
significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the
Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the
continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range
guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying
western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may
develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence
in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical
probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025