United States & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast

U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast

Map is in operation from early April through October 31

U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 031636

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Valid 031700Z - 041200Z

   Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New
   Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back
   to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and
   considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to
   overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas
   through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below)
   remains on track.

   ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the
   West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge
   over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will
   develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone
   forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided
   by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of
   increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will
   develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here,
   around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor
   elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather
   conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy
   conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 031936 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in the lowlands of south-central New Mexico under diminishing southwest flow aloft amid residual surface dryness. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of a highly amplified large-scale trough centered on the Southwest, a belt of strong south-southwesterly flow and embedded midlevel speed maximum will shift eastward into TX. While a weak surface cyclone and related breezy conditions will persist over parts of southern/central NM, the meridional orientation and displacement of the midlevel jet will limit fire-weather concerns compared to previous days.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032134

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0434 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

   Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures accompanying an
   active trough pattern will mitigate fire weather concerns across the
   eastern U.S., as well as portions of the Southern Plains through the
   forecast period. An upper-level ridge, supporting dry and warmer
   than normal temperatures across the Western U.S., is expected to
   linger into early next week, though surface winds will remain light.
   Mid-level ridging transitions into a more zonal flow pattern
   beginning D6 (Sunday). The potential for stronger leeward
   downsloping winds emerges late in the forecast period across leeward
   northern Rockies locations, as northwest flow increases under an
   amplifying upper ridge across the western U.S. However, some
   precipitation in the Northern Plains increases the uncertainty in
   emergent Critical fire weather conditions during this time.

   ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025

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