Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1156 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 07 2025 - 12Z Tue Jul 08 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE NORTHEAST TO THE OZARK REGION,
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...Eastern North Carolina and Southeastern Virginia...
The threat for heavy rainfall will continue to decrease, however
some additional heavy amounts are possible as Tropical Cyclone
Three is expected to dissipate over eastern North Carolina.

...Northeast to the Ozark Region...
The previously noted cold front will push across the Northeast
while lingering back across the Ohio into the mid Mississippi
Valley. Overnight models indicate a greater threat for heavy
amounts will focus along with some right-entrance region upper jet
forcing and greater moisture anomalies across northern New England.
However, sufficient moisture is expected to remain in place ahead
of the boundary to support at least localized heavy amounts and an
isolated flooding threat further southeast along and ahead of the
boundary.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
Models show a well-defined shortwave moving across the region this
period. With plenty of differences in the details, models indicate
some potential for organized heavy rains developing ahead of this
wave as it interacts with an influx of deeper moisture.

...Central Plains to the Southern High Plains/Rockies...
Similar to the previous day, the models are presenting a notable
signal for showers and storms, supported by moist low level inflow,
to develop over High Plains, with some potential for locally heavy
amounts to occur as they move east.

Meanwhile, the coverage of storms and potential flooding concerns
is expected to expand across New Mexico as the monsoon pattern
builds, with moisture increasing across the region.

Pereira
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt