Racine, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

458
FXUS63 KMKX 020812
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
312 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers this morning with some additional shower activity
  expected this afternoon.

- Mostly dry on Saturday, with a few showers/sprinkles possible
  over far southern Wisconsin.

- Rain chances increase Sunday, before temperatures turn warmer
  next workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 312 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Today through Saturday:

Light showers are moving across the region this morning as
multiple shortwaves rotate across the area, within a larger
digging trough stretching from the Great Lakes into the Central
Plains. A lull in shower activity is possible later this morning
in the wake of an initial shortwave, before picking back up this
afternoon ahead of another vort max. QPF will be light with this
activity, likely no more than a few hundreths of an inch at
most. Highs today will remain on the cool side, with mid to
upper 50s inland, and upper 40s and low 50s near the lake.

By tomorrow morning the upper level trough is expected to become
a closed low over the the lower Missouri Valley. High pressure
building in from the north and relatively dry northeast surface flow
will favor mostly dry conditions for Saturday, though with a
fair amount of cloud cover. Mid to upper 50s are again expected
inland, with the northeast flow keeping readings closer to the
upper 40s to around 50 near the lake.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 312 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Saturday night through Thursday:

Sunday into Monday look to have the best chances for some
precip (particularly in the east) associated with the upper low
as it lifts back the north and northwest. Models do start to
push the system east later Monday into Tuesday, likely bringing
drier conditions back to the area. It does tend to be difficult
to trust how fast models push this system out and it remains
quite possible that the low lingers a bit longer than models
suggest. Behind this low ridging will then likely hold for at
least a few days with dry conditions expected.

The development of another closed upper low to the west will be
the thing to watch later next week as models are not in great
agreement with this feature. If the low can track through the
region precip will become more likely, but some models show it
weakening or shifting south and leaving the ridge in place over
the region. Ensemble averages for the GEFS and EC Ens seem to
favor a weakening of the upper low, with the upper ridge
dominating and taking over much of the US.

Warm conditions are expected early next week, but that upper low
may produce northeasterly winds off the lake and keep our east
cooler.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 312 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Variable ceilings are in place across the region this morning,
with a mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR. Light rain showers are
expected through sunrise this morning, with a break during the
mid morning hours, followed by more showers this afternoon.
Ceilings will likely continue to vary quite a bit, though MVFR
will generally prevail for most terminals. Lower ceilings and
additional shower activity is expected tonight.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 312 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Low pressure over Georgian Bay this morning will lift
northeastward into Quebec by this evening. High pressure will
expand across Lakes Superior and Michigan today and tonight,
strengthening by Saturday morning.

This high will remain centered around Lake Superior through early
next week, with persistent low pressure across Ohio and West
Virginia. This will result in north to northeast winds across
Lake Michigan through the weekend. Waves may build enough to
require a Small Craft Advisory over the nearshore waters on
Sunday. Occasional showers and patchy fog will also be
possible.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee