Teays Valley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

679
FXUS61 KRLX 111300
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
900 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper-level low brings clouds and showers today, mainly across
the east. Remaining chilly through Saturday, then gradually
warming up. Next cold front late Monday, then chilly midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 859 AM Friday...

The forecast generally remains in good standing, but we
increased PoPs slightly over the northern mountains to account
for latest radar trends. Otherwise, no other changes were made
at this time.

As of 230 AM Friday...

Overall, a rather cool and dreary day on tap. Upper low will
continue to dig south across the TN Valley region today, eventually
moving east of the area by late afternoon and evening, with a
strengthening surface low riding north along east coast. Bulk of
shower activity will generally remain across southern and eastern
zones today, with much of the western half of the CWA remaining
generally dry, but overcast. With a cool northerly flow expected to
be in place, and plenty of cloud cover, did elect to lower high
temperatures today a degree or two from previous forecast. There
could be a rumble of thunder today across the far south with upper
low nearby, but most areas should remain free of thunderstorms.

Tonight, showers will continue to linger across far eastern zones on
back side of low. Some partial clearing may try to occur across far
western/northern zones. In addition, cooler air filtering into the
area will result in a change over to light snow tonight across
the higher terrain, and we may approach or even touch freezing
across parts of SE Ohio and NE KY tonight. However, currently
thinking with expected gusty winds/cloud cover, that frost will
be prevented, and if locations are able to reach freezing, it
will be patchy, and not long lived enough in duration to warrant
headlines. Will however, have day shift reevaluate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Friday...

A high amplitude mid/upper-level trough between the Appalachians
and east coast Saturday morning, drifts off the east coast
Saturday through Saturday night, with a weak but stacked low
congealing off the eastern seaboard. This spells the chance for
showers in and near the northern and central mountains, with
snow showers over the higher mountainous terrain, Saturday into
Saturday night. Nothing more than a coating is anticipated
Saturday morning. Otherwise, stratocumulus will envelop the
area Saturday atop the mixing layer.

The trough shifts farther east Sunday through Sunday night,
allowing surface high pressure to cross overnight Saturday night
through Sunday, and mid/upper-level ridging to cross behind it
Sunday through Sunday night. This will allow conditions to
become clear and calm enough to allow temperatures to fall to
the lower to mid 30s for lows Sunday morning across active the
growing season area, which is much of the lowlands, resulting in
frost formation for which headlines may be needed as the time
draws nearer.

Clouds and increasing low level south to southwest flow ahead
of the next system will preclude frost Sunday night, with lows
just above normal, in the 40s. There is also the chance for
showers moving southeast across the area, ahead of the warm
front associated with that system. Any elevated mixed layer
looks too elevated with the column too dry in an absolute sense
for thunder at this juncture.

Below normal highs Saturday, in the lower to mid 50s, 40s
mountains, climb closer to normal Sunday, lower to mid 60s, 50s
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM Friday...

The next mid/upper-level short wave trough drives a cold front
toward the area Monday, and then on through the area late
Monday afternoon and evening. This brings an increasing chance
for showers to the area Monday afternoon, likely by Sunday
night, with the chance for thunderstorms Monday afternoon and
evening. With favored timing relative to diurnal heating, and
adequate shear, thunderstorms could be strong to severe, as
reflected in the Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook
in the extended period.

The driving mid/upper-level system is actually a series of short
wave troughs, the first, subtle, tied to the front, the next
two, the second most well defined, cross Tuesday and Tuesday
night, with clouds and the chance for showers, including the
chance for snow over the higher mountainous terrain late
Tuesday into Tuesday night.

As the system moves off the east coast Wednesday through
Wednesday night, surface high pressure crosses Wednesday night
into Thursday, and mid/upper-level ridging crosses behind it
Thursday into Thursday night. This may allow conditions to
become clear and calm enough to allow temperatures to fall to
the lower to mid 30s for lows Wednesday morning across active
the growing season area, resulting in frost formation. Frost is
more likely overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as
the high crosses.

The next system brings the next chance for showers late
Thursday through Friday, with thunderstorms possible Friday
afternoon.

Temperatures soar well into the 70s across the lowlands ahead
of the front Monday, before falling below normal Tuesday through
Wednesday night, and then climbing back to about normal for
Thursday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 128 AM Friday...

Widespread MVFR and areas of IFR ceilings have overspread the
area, with local LIFR/VLIFR conditions across the mountains.
Mountains are most likely to experience areas of LIFR/VLIFR
conditions in low ceilings/vsbys, with KEKN and KBKW likely to
remain IFR or worse for most of the TAF period.

For Friday, most of the precipitation will remain confined
across the mountains, and around KCKB and KCRW, with slight
chances for a thunderstorm, mainly across southern West Virginia
and southwest Virginia. In addition, northwesterly winds could
become gusty at times after 17Z, with occasional gusts in the
teens. Winds will gradually become light after 22Z, but
widespread MVFR and areas of IFR and local LIFR/VLIFR,
particularly across the mountains, will continue for the
remainder of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions associated with fog
and/or low stratus may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in stratus Saturday morning, mainly in and near
the mountains. IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening, and in stratus overnight Monday night
into Tuesday morning, the stratus mainly in and near the
mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/JMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL