South Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

625
FXUS61 KRLX 071817
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
217 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Possibly MCS arrival this evening and crossing tonight. Active
weather persists Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM Saturday...Corrected...

Heavy rainfall, to the tune of 2 to 3.5 inches plus, resulted
in flash flooding in northeast portions of the forecast area,
especially Barbour county, where numerous roads were flooded
and many streams out of their banks across central portions of
the county. Flooding also occurred back into northern Upshur
County and the notorious Duck Creek in Washington County, Ohio.
The flood waters in northeast WV were beginning to recede.

With the surface cold front and mid/upper-level short wave
trough having moved out of the area, coverage of convection in
the still warm and moist post-frontal environment this afternoon
should remain limited to roughly the southeast half of the
forecast area, and what does stand up should be of minimal
impact save for a slow moving heavy downpour.

A mid/upper-level short wave trough tied to a convective complex
moving into the Tennessee Valley early this afternoon will move
across the area tonight, with widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. With associated PW values climbing as high as
1.8 inches, he Weather Prediction Center has upgraded the
excessive rainfall outlook to a slight risk throughout the area
for tonight.

The system will pull the front back north as a warm front to a
point, although the cool pool associated with the convective
complex will shunt or reverse its progress for a time overnight
into Sunday morning. The best chance for strong thunderstorms
is across far southern portions of the area overnight, where
strong low level west to southwest flow will develop south of
the warm front aloft. This is reflected via a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms from the Storm Prediction Center for
tonight.

While the system pulls out Sunday morning, another mid/upper-
level short wave trough crossing in tandem with diurnal heating
is likely to spawn new shower and thunderstorm development
Sunday afternoon. With modest shear spreading north across the
area, and PW values still up around 1.5 inches or higher,
thunderstorms can become strong and heavy Sunday afternoon, as
reflected with a marginal risk from Storm Prediction Center and
marginal to slight excessive rainfall risk from the Weather
Prediction Center. These threats could diminish from the
southwest Sunday afternoon, depending upon the forward progress
of the short wave and slightly drier air moving in behind it.

Highs range in the lower to mid 80s across the area this
afternoon, and then are limited to around 80 or less Sunday
afternoon with more widespread clouds and precipitation. Lows
tonight range in the lower to mid 60s, upper 50s over the
higher ridges.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

A frontal boundary stalled across the region will gradually push
back northward on Sunday. In addition, an upper level short
wave will move across the area, enhancing the chances for
showers and thunderstorms. With some mid level dry air and most
unstable CAPES in the 1500 to 2500 range, could see some storms
produce damaging wind gusts. Some large hail is also possible
with a freezing level below 13K feet. With the ground becoming
saturated in many locations from storms on previous days, flash
flooding is a concern.

An upper level trough moves into the region Monday into
Tuesday. This will provide additional chances of showers and
thunderstorms, but will also push a cold front through the area.
With the ground becoming saturated in many locations from storms
on previous days, flash flooding is a concern on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...

A high pressure system will build over the area on Wednesday,
providing dry weather. This dry weather will remain for most
locations on Thursday as the high shifts eastward. Models vary
on how fast moisture returns to the region, with some bring
chances of showers and thunderstorms back on Friday, while
others hold off until Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM Saturday...

Lifting of the morning MVFR stratocumulus and IFR stratus will
allow for a VFR afternoon and evening, save for BKW, where MVFR
stratocu persists. While a shower or thunderstorm may pop this
afternoon, coverage is expected to be too widely scattered to
encode into any of the TAFs.

The next disturbance will bring an increasing chance for
showers tonight, with thunderstorms also possible. The main
threat with this activity overnight into early Sunday morning
would be heavy rainfall. MVFR conditions should become
widespread overnight, with IFR at least on ceiling at BKW early
Sunday morning, and possible anywhere in heavy rainfall
overnight into Sunday morning.

While shower and thunderstorm coverage will decrease Sunday
morning, improvement will again be slow, especially on ceiling.
Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms are likely to start
refiring early Sunday afternoon, as yet another disturbance
approaches, this time in tandem with diurnal heating. This gives
rise to the potential for strong thunderstorm wind gusts, in
addition to heavy downpours.

Light northwest surface flow behind a cold front this afternoon
will become light and variable tonight, then light southeast as
the front returns as a warm front early Sunday morning, and
then light southwest southern sites HTS, CRW and BKW, early
Sunday afternoon, as the warm front pushes through. Light
northwest flow aloft this afternoon will become light and
variable tonight, light south overnight tonight, and then light
to moderate west to southwest across southern portions of the
area Sunday morning, as the warm front aloft pushes north.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection affecting any
terminal could vary. There may be low level wind shear for a
time at BKW early Sunday morning with the warm front pushing
through aloft.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM