Oak Hill, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

997
FXUS61 KRLX 210233
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1033 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather expected through Tuesday. Conditions become hot and
muggy for the new week with heat impacts accumulating through at
least the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1032 PM Friday...

No major changes made to the forecast other than adjusting
temperatures and dew points. Showers that crossed into our
forecast area from the north have since dissipated.

As of 715 PM Friday...

Forecast remains on track this evening as high pressure settles
in over the area keeping us mostly dry for the foreseeable
future. Showers and thunderstorms are just to our north across
northeast OH, Northern Panhandle of WV, and western PA though
as a stationary front remains parked over the Great Lakes.

As of 150 PM Friday...

High pressure has settled in for the long haul. It`s rather nice out
there today with highs in the lower to mid 80s and dew points only
in the lower to mid 60s, but the heat is coming. Evapotranspiration
from our lush vegetation is yielding a minor increase in dew point
over model guidance and a shallow unstable layer capped by an
inversion at H700 has allowed some moderate cumulus to blossom this
afternoon. Couldn`t completely rule out an isolated raindrop or two
making it to the ground out of this shallow convection and do have
an isolated shower mention in the forecast for some areas through
this evening. With loss of heating the cumulus field will dissipate
leaving only some thin cirrus resulting from blow off of convection
well upstream of us.

Some patchy valley fog will be possible tonight for areas that saw
heavy rain yesterday, but coverage should be significantly less than
was seen last night as soils begin to dry out.

The subsidence inversion should strengthen Saturday with only some
very shallow cumulus expected during the afternoon. Daytime highs
across the lower elevations will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s
with dew points generally still in the mid 60s - likely to be the
last day in a substantial stretch where we don`t see triple digit
heat indices for at least a portion of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 PM Friday...

Dry, but increasingly hot and humid Sunday into Monday with upper
ridge in control across the area.  Can`t completely rule out an
isolated shower or storm across the far south Monday afternoon, but
chances are low enough to maintain a dry forecast at this time.
Daytime high temperatures both days will be in the 90s across much
of the lowlands, and this, combined with increasing humidity, will
result in heat indices in the lower 100s. Excessive heat watch has
been expanded to include SW VA and southern coalfields.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...

Key Message:

* Heat impacts build during the next work week amid multiple days of
  heat and humidity, with warm, muggy nights providing little relief

A subtropical ridge remains the dominant feature across the region
through the end of the week, continuing to support hot and humid
conditions. The ridge will move southward starting Wednesday
allowing for some weak diurnally driven isolated convection. A small
disturbance in the upper levels and increased moisture may increase
the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms into the later
part of next week into Friday.

High temperatures will remain steady through the period, with
lowland areas reaching the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Dew points
in the upper 60s to low 70s will keep conditions muggy and
contribute to heat indices climbing into the low to mid 100s.
Overnight lows will stay warm, with little relief from the heat. An
Extreme Heat Watch continues through Wednesday. The watch has been
expanded into the Southern Coalfields due to prolonged heat impacts
with poor recoveries overnight. A spread of model solutions begins
to widen toward the end of the forecast period with uncertainty if
the high pressure and heat will continue or if we will see some
modest relief with the pattern becoming more progressive. Extension
of heat products may be required.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 725 PM Friday...

VFR conditions prevail with high pressure assuming control. Some
patchy valley fog is possible overnight with decoupling, but not
expecting it to be as dense as the previous night due to
scattered cloud cover. EKN is currently the only terminal that
may see IFR restrictions as they typically do. Otherwise, VFR
takes back over by ~13z Saturday morning with only FEW CU
littering the sky in the afternoon.

SW winds will be light this evening before going calm shortly
after ~00z. SW winds pick back up and will be light tomorrow
afternoon.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog ends up being more dense than
forecasted.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SAT 06/21/25
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034.
OH...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/SL
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...BAS/JP
AVIATION...LTC