Morgantown, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

764
FXUS61 KPBZ 071754
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
154 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday with a
series of crossing disturbances. Strong wind gusts and
localized flooding remain possible in heavier storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Isolated showers possible in the ridges and portions of
  northern WV; otherwise dry weather expected through evening.
- Showers and storms return from southwest to northeast
  overnight tonight.

---------------------------------------------------------------

The front that stalled over the area on Friday has pushed to our
south thanks to the passage of a weak shortwave last night. As a
result, drier weather has settled in this afternoon with partly
cloudy skies and a rain free forecast through this evening for
most, save for a few isolated showers possible near the Mason-
Dixon line and along the ridges. Shower and thunderstorm
chances increase from southwest to northeast overnight as
another shortwave trough digs into the Ohio Valley, lifting the
front back northward into the local area.

High temperatures top out right around seasonal levels this
afternoon, but lows tonight remain mild as lingering low-level
moisture keeps dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and
increasing cloud cover limits radiative cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Marginal Severe and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for Sunday and
  Monday; unsettled weather continues through Tuesday.

----------------------------------------------------------------

As another shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley tonight, a
surface low begins to develop over OH and pushes northeast
during the day Sunday. This will bring widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity back to the forecast area, including the
potential for additional heavy rainfall during the day as the
low treks east in close proximity to (or directly through) the
local area. Depending on the track of this surface low, there
could be some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
during afternoon hours. A northerly low over Lake Erie and
western New York would allow a warm front to push north of the
local area, putting us in a warm sector where the latest HREF
suggests high probabilities (>70%) of at least marginal
instability (SBCAPE > 500 J/kg) and deep-layer shear exceeding
40 knots, which would support a damaging wind gust threat and
potentially even a tornado threat. Meanwhile, if the surface low
takes a more southerly track (say, across northern WV), the
front would remain to our south with little to no instability in
the local area and thus a much lower severe threat.

At this time, the most likely scenario appears to have the
surface low tracking almost straight across the local area,
which would leave portions of extreme southwest PA and northern
WV (generally areas southeast of Pittsburgh) in the more
favorable severe storm environment while areas farther north and
west remain less favorable.

The other main threat on Sunday will be rainfall. Right now, the
highest confidence in the potential for heavy rainfall is
generally near and south of the Mason-Dixon line, and even
more so over the ridges of northern WV. Both the NBM and HREF
suggest medium to high probabilities (40-70%) of at least an
inch of additional rainfall in these areas. Meanwhile, farther
north, there is lower confidence as the NBM shows a 20-30%
probability for an inch while the HREF suggests a second local
probability maximum of 30-50% over portions of eastern Ohio to
the west of Pittsburgh. These variances are likely attributed to
differences in the surface low track, but the key takeaway is
that at least a low-end threat for additional heavy rainfall
exists across most of the area. This is especially the case for
areas that have already seen heavy rainfall in recent days,
where soils are more likely to be saturated and runoff more
efficient.

There will be a trailing cold front draped across the area as
the main low lifts to the northeast Sunday night. This will
serve as a focus for additional convection on Monday. With
ensembles suggesting high probabilities of at least 1000 J/kg
SBCAPE ahead of this front, there will once again be a risk for
strong to severe storms Monday afternoon. Additionally, the
residence time of the boundary will continue to support some
potential for excessive rainfall. Thus, both the Storm
Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center have highlighted
marginal risks for severe storms and excessive rainfall,
respectively, across most of the local area.

The upper trough finally advances eastward across the Ohio
Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night, pushing the front through
and to the east of the area. More showers and storms will
accompany this passage and, given amount of rain that will have
fallen on prior days, carry a continued threat for excessive
rainfall and localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and less humid weather returns Wednesday through Thursday
  night.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The trough exits during the Wednesday morning period, with high
pressure building into the region. This will result in dry
weather from Wednesday through Thursday night, along with a
slow warming trend. A passing trough will bring a chance of
rainfall back to the area for Friday. Deep-layer flow during
this period will be out of the southwest and thus it will remain
to be seen if the potential leads to any severe or flood risk.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As expected clearing has occurred across the region with dry
advection and daytime mixing eroding our low clouds. A VFR
cu/stratocu deck largely between 3500-5000ft has spread across much
of the region and is expected to be with us until after sunset
before scattering.

Light SFC winds are expected to go calm overnight. Mid-level clouds
filter into the region beginning this evening ahead of our next low
pressure system. Restrictions in showers can occur again near
sunrise on Sunday as a warm front lifts S to N through the region.

Things are expected to become more convective during the afternoon
hours and the extended TAF period for PIT features a PROB30 group
for thunderstorms. The scope of these thunderstorms will depend on
the exact low track through the region, but at this time ports S and
E of PIT look to have the best chance to see storms tomorrow
afternoon. At this time heavy rain and 2-3SM VIS looks like a
possibility in heavier showers tomorrow but this has not yet been
included in the TAFs.

Outlook...  After a break in the rain the first half of Monday,
additional restrictions and showers/thunderstorms are expected
Monday afternoon into Tuesday with the approach and passage of a
cold front. VFR should return Tuesday and Wednesday under building
high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak
NEAR TERM...Cermak
SHORT TERM...Cermak
LONG TERM...Cermak/Shallenberger
AVIATION...WM/AK