Fairmont, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

131
FXUS61 KPBZ 111742
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
142 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect some showers behind a low pressure system passing to the
south. The lake effect showers will persist through Saturday.
High pressure then returns for Sunday as dry weather is
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Some morning patchy fog possible.
- Lake effect showers expected through Saturday.
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The current setup features showers coming to an end across the
area as the upper trough axis swings through the area later this
morning. This will bring northwest flow over the area and
allowing some lake effect showers to continue especially into
the afternoon with some differential heating as high
temperatures will warm into the lower 50s this afternoon. This
will still be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The continued
northwest flow will be amplified as the mentioned low pressure
system passes the forecast area to the south and then swings up
the east coast. This is expected to keep most of the precip to
the east of the PBZ CWA. Still, the continued northwest flow
will keep the threat of lake effect showers in the forecast
through tonight and into Saturday for that matter. The HREF
precip amounts keep only about 20% to 30% chance of 0.50 inches
only in Preston and Tucker Counties. The rest of the area will
see much less precip, perhaps barely even enough to get a
quarter of an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions Saturday night and continuing through Sunday.
- The next system brings a slight chance of precip Sunday night.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure is expected to develop and move into the region by
Saturday night. There is the potential of a few stray showers
Saturday night along the Laurels, but should dissipate by
Sunday morning. Temperatures are expected to return to normal
values by Sunday as highs return to highs near 60 degrees. Dry
conditions are expected during the day.

By Sunday night, another low pressure system will lift northeast
into the Great Lakes with the warm front lifting north of the
forecast area Sunday night. This will bring a slight chance of
showers to the area with a 5% to 10% chance of a tenth of
rainfall. This will also bring the warm sector the area heading
into Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Potential of Severe Weather on Monday.
- A few snow showers possible Tuesday night.
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The main concern for the extended forecast period will be the
potential of severe weather as a stout cold front swings through
the forecast area Monday late afternoon/evening. A 40 knot low
level jet is possible as the front approaches the forecast area.
The NBM statistics indicate that the SB CAPE heading into this
event is 500 J/Kg or less but the proximity of the front and the
low center will make this event one to watch. Any clearing into
the warm sector will make a huge difference in the instability
available. The NBM does suggest the CWASP will register around
50 to 60 for Monday hinting at the potential. Especially since
temperatures on Monday will warm in to the low 70s, roughly 5 to
10 degrees above normal.

The front will pass through the area leading to another cold
snap behind the front. This will make for a few instances of
post frontal showers and even a few snow showers for Tuesday
evening and Tuesday night. There is not expected to be any
significant accumulation as ground temperatures will still be
quite warm after highs on Monday. High pressure will then
infiltrate the region keep dry conditions in place for Wednesday
and Thursday. The NBM probs suggest a 80% probability of dry
conditions during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly MVFR ceilings are ongoing this afternoon except for
terminals near the ridges and north of I-80 (FKL, DUJ, LBE, MGW)
where a mix of IFR/LIFR continues. Little additional improvement
is expected through the remainder of this afternoon before
widespread IFR (potentially LIFR at the aforementioned trouble
spots) returns overnight. Improvement is once again expected
Saturday morning, but only to MVFR for most.

ZZV continues to be an outlier given its location farther west
and on the periphery of the lowest stratus. Maintained MVFR
there through tonight and into Saturday morning, but hi-res
ensemble probabilities suggest as high as a 50-70% chance that
it breaks into VFR at least briefly overnight before dropping
back to MVFR Saturday morning.

Winds remain light and generally out of the north throughout the
TAF period.

Outlook...
Restrictions are likely to continue, along with rain and snow
showers, through Saturday night as an upper low drifts across
the region. VFR returns Sunday under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...Cermak