Cheat Lake, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

642
FXUS61 KPBZ 071128
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
728 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will drift south today, with shower
and storm chances diminishing. Unsettled weather is then
expected Sunday through Tuesday with a series of crossing
disturbances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Lingering convection along the southern border through the
  day today.
---------------------------------------------------------------

The predawn hours will feature a stalled frontal boundary
sagging south through the morning. Expect some showers and
thunderstorms to be ongoing in the predawn hours over the
northern WV area. The main concern here will be the rainfall
which may lead to some minor flooding problems.

As the shortwave departs this morning, the front will be pushed
south of the region during the mid-morning. This results in a
decrease in PoPs during the daylight hours, with most locations
from PIT on north expected to remain dry. This dry weather
continues into Saturday evening, although a few showers/storms
may linger near the Mason-Dixon Line through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Marginal Severe and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for Sunday
- Unsettled weather Monday/Tuesday
----------------------------------------------------------------

Another shortwave will lift north through the area tonight. This
will bring the frontal boundary back north as a surface low
begins to develop over OH and push northeast. This will bring
the rainfall back to the forecast area. During the day on Sunday
the surface low will push east bringing additional heavy
rainfall. Instability will be something to watch for Sunday as
most places only register a 60% to 70% probability of even
reaching 1000 J/Kg of SB CAPE. The other main threat would be
rainfall. Most runs of the NBM give a 20% to 30% probability of
even an inch for the area on Sunday. Nevertheless, a Marginal
severe (1 of 5) and a Marginal Excessive rainfall is in effect
for Sunday.

There will be a trailing cold front across the area as the main
low lifts to the northeast. This trailing front will also be
the focal point for additional convection on Monday. The
residence time of the boundary will also pose the potential for
excessive rainfall again on Monday afternoon. A larger area for
Monday is roughly around 80% probability for over 1000 J/Kg of
SB CAPE. This is a bit better than expected. Thus a marginal
severe by SPC and marginal excessive rainfall is in effect for
the area on Monday as well.

The mentioned trough advances across the Central Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then over the Upper Ohio Valley by Tuesday night.
A frontal passage will create another round of showers and
storms on Tuesday. This potential for heavy rainfall will linger
into the overnight as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and less humid weather returns Wednesday through Thursday
  night.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The trough exits during the Wednesday morning period, with high
pressure building into the region. This will result in dry
weather from Wednesday through Thursday night, along with a
slow warming trend. A passing trough will bring a chance of
rainfall back to the area for Friday. The main flow during this
period will be out of the southwest and thus it will remain to
be seen if the potential leads to any severe or flood risk.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The TAF period is beginning with rather widespread IFR and LIFR fog
behind recent heavy rain. Despite this, the back edge of the clouds
is racing towards the region and ports in NE Ohio have already
cleared and gone to VFR.

Clearing is expected across the region as we move through the mid
morning hours, first with an end to fog and mist then a gradual rise
in CIGs as dry advection and mixing erode our lower cloud base. VFR
is expected to be more so the rule rather than the exception by
early afternoon with a VFR cu/stratocu layer sticking around. Once
we break into VFR today it is likely to stick around through the
remainder of the day and into the evening and overnight hours.

Mid-level clouds filter into the region beginning this evening ahead
of our next low pressure system. Restrictions in showers and
thunderstorms can occur again near sunrise on Sunday as a warm front
lifts through the region.

Outlook...  After a break in the rain the first half of Monday,
additional restrictions and showers/thunderstorms are expected
Monday afternoon into Tuesday with the approach and passage of a
cold front. VFR should return Tuesday and Wednesday under building
high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...WM/AK