Bluefield, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

658
FXUS61 KRNK 241104
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
604 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level ridge building over the eastern conus and surface
high pressure over the southeast will allow for mild
temperatures across the region today and Monday. A cold front
crosses the area Monday night and Tuesday with a chance of
precipitation mainly in the mountains. A complex low pressure
system over the southeast United States will bring widespread
precipitation to the area Wednesday night through Thursday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

Key message:

   - Mostly quiet weather with mild temperatures expected
     areawide.

Upper level troughing is expected to continue to progress
eastward into the Atlantic on Sunday as subtle upper level
ridging builds into the upper Mississippi valley. This will keep
the region primarily on the eastern periphery of the
aforementioned ridge during the day on Sunday. While ridging
builds into the region, 500mb heights look to rise throughout
the day into the 570 dam range by Sunday evening. This will
allow temperatures to rise into the upper 50s across higher
terrain regions, and low 60s across the Piedmont today. As upper
level ridging builds off to our west, surface high pressure
settling across the southeast will lead to
westerly/southwesterly winds across the region today, as well as
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies areawide. Temperatures
Sunday night will cool down into the low to mid 30s across the
region, with some patchy fog possible across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Dry Monday with milder temperatures.
2. Mainly mountain showers Monday night.
3. Cooler and dry Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Dry high pressure exits as a cold front enters the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys Monday. No rain is expected during the day Monday,
but clouds will increase over the area. Clouds may temper
temperatures, but highs will still manage to warm into the upper 50s
to lower 60s across the mountains and mid to upper 60s in the
foothills and piedmont. These temperatures are 7F to 12F warmer than
normal.

This cold front will slide across the mountains overnight, then
moves east over the foothills and piedmont Tuesday morning. Rainfall
amounts of up to a quarter of an inch are possible, especially in
the mountains. Mostly sunny skies will return in the afternoon as
another dry high pressure system tracks over the region. With zonal
flow aloft, this dry high will also move quickly over and out of the
area Tuesday night. Slight cooler temperatures expected Tuesday with
highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s across the mountains and
upper 60s to low 60s in the foothills and piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 AM EST Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Thanksgiving day will be chilly and wet.
2. Breezy plus mountain rain/snow showers on Friday.
3. Dry and colder for next weekend.

Deterministic long range models offering a different solution for
Thanksgiving day, but both bring rain into the area.

The 00Z GFS is similar to yesterday run with overrunning moisture
bringing rain to the area early Thursday morning. This rain will
keep the area cool and the frontal boundary south of the area.
During the afternoon and evening hours, a surface low tracks along
the boundary retaining strong convection and heavy rain in the
Carolinas. A secondary front will then kick rain showers east of the
area Friday morning.

The 00Z Euro has a stronger upper level trough that will guide the
surface low into the Ohio Valley Thursday morning, pushing a cold
front over the area Thursday afternoon and evening. The front exits
the piedmont by midnight, then upslope mountain showers persist into
Friday.

Either way you look at it, Thanksgiving day will be a wet one. There
are still questions with timing of onset and exit of the rain and
rainfall amounts.

Once the front exits, temperatures Friday into Sunday will run
around 10F colder than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 600 AM EST Sunday...

Due to FAA communications issues, amend not sked for BLF will
continue.

MVFR CIGs look to continue at LWB for the next few hours before
clearing out to VFR conditions. All other TAF sites are
expected to remain VFR with high clouds currently being
observed via Satellite pushing into the region. Surface high
pressure is expected to settle into the southeast today, which
will keep winds light around 5-10 knots today out of the
west/southwest. Outside of the current MVFR CIGs at LWB, VFR
conditions should prevail at all terminals through the taf
period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Good flying weather should continue through Monday, but a cold
front will arrive by Monday night into Tuesday to bring a chance
of rain and MVFR ceilings. High pressure should return for
Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 940 PM EST Saturday...

National Weather Service Radar, KFCX is operational.

Observations from the KBLF ASOS are not available due to a FAA
communications circuit outage.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB
EQUIPMENT...AMS/WP