Beckley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

515
FXUS61 KRLX 200148
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
948 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and tranquil tonight. Low pressure slowly crosses the region,
bringing periods of showers/storms Tuesday through Wednesday.
Cooler and drier conditions return late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 947 PM Monday...

Changes not required to the forecast at this time. Warm front is
just to our south currently. Some high clouds are blowing over
ahead of it and will likely remain overhead during the night.
Ceilings will gradually lower tomorrow morning as the front
starts moving northward into our area.

As of 555 PM Monday...

Not much to change with the forecast other than an update to
dew points which are trending drier, closer to the 25th
percentile.

As of 212 PM Monday...

Key Point:

 * Flash Flood Watch in effect for Tuesday through Tuesday
   night.

Surface high pressure provides dry and warm weather through tonight.

A low pressure system over the central plains approaches from the
west on Tuesday. An associated warm front is expected to lift north
across the area through the day, spreading showers and storms.
Unstable conditions possible along and south of the warm front with
SBCAPE exceeding 2000 J/Kg, deep layered shear exceeding 50 knots
and PWATs about 1.6 inches. These ingredient are ideal for afternoon
strong to severe convection. SPC has the southern half of the CWA
under a Slight Risk for severe storms, while the rest of the area
are under a Marginal Risk. WPC has outlooked Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall for late Tuesday into Wednesday. The main
threats with the expected convection will be damaging winds,
large hail and localized heavy downpours.

Due to recent heavy rainfall across our south, and expected
rainfall from 1 to 1.5 inches, believe soils will quickly
saturate on Tuesday. In collaboration with neighboring offices,
elected to issue a Flood Watch for portions of southern WV, NE
KY and SW VA for Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Temperatures will be not as cool as today. Lows will generally be in
the 50s across the southern lowlands, and from the upper to mid 40s
across the central and northern mountains. Highs on Tuesday will
range from the upper 70s across extreme southern WV and SW VA, into
the low 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

Key Points:

* Storms approaching from the west Tuesday evening will be
  decreasing in strength, but may still be strong to severe when the
  arrive

* Locally heavy rainfall Tuesday night could lead to isolated flash
  flooding, especially in urban or poorly drained areas

The main feature to watch late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening will be the slug of low level moisture being advected into
the region on southwesterly flow combined with some contribution
from warm frontal precipitation earlier in the day. Assuming this
plume of low level moisture manifests as advertised, we should be
able to realize 1000-2000J/kg MUCAPE despite rather modest mid-level
lapse rates of 6.3C/km amid deep layer shear of 40-45KTs. Low level
flow will not be especially robust, generally less than 20KTs below
H850, but will be veered in a very moist low level environment.
Initial storms may have a low end damaging wind threat with some
initially drier mid-level air, but think this threat wanes fairly
rapidly with column saturation. With wet bulb zero values
approaching 12kft the hail threat should be limited to marginally
severe at best. The tornado threat may be limited by a somewhat
congested storm mode, but if any semi-discrete convection can be
realized this threat would likely become the primary severe threat.

With precipitable water values approaching 1.8 inches expect locally
very high rainfall rates in any heavier convection Tuesday night.
Although we have had some intervening dry days, soils remain locally
moist, especially across the Southern Coalfields. While flash flood
guidance has recovered quite a bit, locally heavy rates could
quickly overcome soil capacity and lead to localized issues in areas
of poor drainage. If a heavier downpour were to get over a build up
urban area, some local water issues would also likely manifest
Tuesday night. A flash flood watch has been issued for these
locations through late Tuesday night.

Widespread precipitation exits Wednesday morning with some
additional instability showers and storms developing Wednesday
afternoon an initial shot of cooler air aloft moves in. WRF based
guidance is probably a little too aggressive on holding onto low
level moisture yielding too much afternoon destabilization, but
should be able to realized at least some destabilization amid deep
layer shear increasing to 50KTs. We are not currently outlooked by
SPC for anything other than general thunder, but would not be
shocked to see a marginal added for some marginally severe hail
across our northern counties closest to the colder air aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

Key Point:

* Cool air aloft coupled with lake enhanced moisture on
  northwesterly flow mid to late week will yield diurnally enhanced
  chances for showers and storms

We maintain a cool northwest flow regime for much of the extended
period with lake enhanced low level moisture streaming into the
region beneath cool temperatures aloft. This should allow for
diurnally enhanced showers with isolated storms. Any stronger
updrafts could produce a large amount of small hail.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 733 PM Monday...

Remaining dry overnight courtesy of high pressure to the north.
VFR will remain until after ~06z when shallow valley fog is
expected to form. Expecting MVFR conditions at CRW with IFR or
lower anticipated for EKN. Fog will be too shallow at other
sites to really make an impact. There is a chance that cloud
cover overnight disrupts fog formation entirely. Any fog that
forms will lift and dissipate by ~13z Tuesday.

Warm front lifts north over the area Tuesday morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible at BKW, CRW, and HTS by mid-
morning as a result. Storms will become more scattered through
the afternoon and into the night as a cold front approaches from
the west. MVFR and IFR restrictions will subsequently accompany
any storms Tuesday afternoon and overnight. Damaging winds, hail
and heavy rainfall are possible with any thunderstorms that form
Tuesday.

NNE Winds will go light to calm overnight picking back up at a
light clip Tuesday morning.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of any
overnight fog and also showers and storms Tuesday may vary from
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 05/20/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions in heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop by
late Tuesday, and then at times into Wednesday night, and then
to a lessening extent through Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for WVZ005-006-013>015-024>026-033-034-515>518.
OH...None.
KY...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ/LTC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...LTC