Richland, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

836
FXUS66 KPDT 111125
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
425 AM PDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SHORT TERM...Friday through Monday Morning...

1) Dry conditions for most of the period
2) Chance of widespread below freezing min temps Sun AM

A trough is currently bringing isolated showers at the Cascades and
along the Foothill of the Blue Mountains. Precip will move away as
we head into the overnight hours before popping up again Friday
evening along the Mountain areas. Precip will dry out and skies will
clear out by Saturday evening as ridging begins to push over the
PacNW region.

Overnight Sunday, effective radiation cooling coupled with upper
northwest winds will drop minimum temperatures in the low to mid 30s
across the region. Confidence is high (70-90% chance) that
temperatures will fall at or below freezing heading into Sunday
morning for most of the region. Although many parts of the region
will eligible for freeze warnings starting April 15th, no warnings
or highlights will be issued for this particular day. As we get
closer to the ridge axis heading over the region, temperatures will
begin a warming trend heading through the short term into the long
term.

By Saturday afternoon, a trough will enter the region, tightening
the pressure gradient and increasing the winds 25-35 knots across
large swaths of the CWA. NBM is giving the Basin and the Foothills
40-60% chances of wind gusts greater than 25 mph Saturday afternoon
with 60-80% chances in the higher elevations around the Kittitas
Valley/Ellensburg area. No wind highlights are expected with this
system with low confidence at this time (20-30% confidence).

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Weather conditions through
the extended forecast will for the most part be warm and dry with
light winds. That said, the beginning of the work week may see
another round of near to just below freezing morning temperatures
in the lower elevations.

Ensemble guidance is in great agreement that upper level ridging
will sit over the PacNW through much of next week, producing
dry conditions with passing bands of cirrus. The upper ridge
overhead will also promote warming temperatures, with the trend
continuing through the end of the work week. That said, at the
start of this warming trend, members from the ECMWF, GFS, and
Canadian ensemble suites are split on how low temperatures will
be Monday morning. Overall, the dry conditions (PWATS of 0.35" or
lower) with a lack of any cloud cover present in all three
ensemble suites will result in great radiative cooling across the
lower elevations, leading to another morning of near to below
freezing temperatures (confidence 50-60%). At this time, freeze
warnings are not being considered as many of the forecast zones in
the Lower Columbia Basin, including the Yakima/Kittitas valleys
and the eastern Gorge are not eligible until the morning of April
15th.

While upper level ridging will persist through much of extended
forecast, it is worth mentioning that ensemble cluster solutions
do indicate that a shortwave trough passage Tuesday into early
Wednesday will result in the ridge flattening. Nearly 80% of the
cluster members favor no precipitation during this shortwave
passage, but the remaining members do favor very light
precipitation across the Cascade crest and portions of the
northern Blues. Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble cluster
solutions all favor the upper level ridge rebounding in some form,
however there is disagreement in placement of the ridge axis and
amplitude of the ridge that persists through the end of the week.
That said, there is mod-high confidence (60-80%) that a warming
trend with dry conditions will persist through this period. By
Friday, there is good agreement that the ridge axis will shift
east of the PacNW, but disagreement on whether the Cascade crest
will continue to see dry conditions (~65% of members) or if very
light showers will return under a southwest flow aloft. Lawhorn/82

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR conditions to prevail through the
period. A cold front is beginning to exit the area this early
morning, resulting in dry conditions through the rest of the
period. CIGs of around 5kft AGL to 10kft AGL will improve to 10kft
AGL or higher by the late morning. Winds at site DLS will increase
to 12-17kts with gusts to around 25kts around 18Z and persist into
the overnight hours. Winds at site PDT are expected to increase
to 12-17kts with gusts to 20-25kts around 6Z and persist
overnight. Otherwise, light winds, 12kts or less, will prevail
through the period. Lawhorn/82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  38  57  33 /   0  10   0   0
ALW  62  40  56  35 /   0  10  10   0
PSC  67  39  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  36  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66  38  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  59  36  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  63  30  57  26 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  60  35  51  29 /  10  20  10   0
GCD  62  35  52  29 /  20  40   0   0
DLS  63  38  59  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...82