Redmond, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

675
FXUS66 KSEW 070357
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
800 PM PST Thu Feb 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cold temperatures will settle into the region by
Friday morning as the upper trough pushes inland over the Pacific
Northwest. A weak system will bring additional chances of snow
showers to the area over the weekend. Cool temperatures and
periodic chances of snow showers will persist into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...While there are some
lingering low clouds out there, current satellite shows the majority
of W WA has cleared out thanks to influence from the incoming ridge.
Radar is equally clear. Much of the area seeing temps in the lower
to mid 30s as of 7 PM PST with most dewpoints in the mid 20s to just
under freezing...thus giving a bit of a preview of what overnight
lows will look like. That said, while these possible lows look like
they may not make it to Cold Weather Advisory criteria, wind chill
will be an important factor overnight as winds remain breezy in
places now and are only expected to very gradually ease overnight.
Portions of Whatcom county, however, stand apart here, with current
temps in the mid to upper 20s and dewpoints in the teens thanks to
persistent Fraser outflow winds. The headline in place is very apt
and as such will continue unaltered.

Inherited forecast covering all of the above nicely, thus no need
for an evening update. For additional forecast details, please refer
to the Previous Discussion section below.

18

From Previous Discussion...Conditions will continue to dry out today
as the upper level trough that has been producing snow showers
across western Washington finally exits the region to the southeast.
Clouds will continue to thin out throughout the rest of the
afternoon and evening, giving way to mostly clear skies.
Additionally, with snow cover in place, overnight temperatures will
drop into the teens to mid 20s across the lowlands, with wind chills
dipping as low as 10 degrees from Bellingham northward. A Cold
Weather Advisory remains in place for much of the interior lowlands
for Friday morning, which will be the coldest morning of the week.
Any lingering moisture from melting snow will also refreeze
overnight, resulting in areas of ice that may cause slippery
conditions during the Friday morning commute.

Weak ridging will pass over western Washington on Friday,
providing us with dry conditions ahead of the next incoming
system. Increasing cloud cover throughout the day Friday will
limit highs to the upper 30s and lower 40s.

A shortwave embedded in a longwave trough will pass over western
Washington late Friday into Saturday, stirring up another round
of scattered showers. Precipitation will spread inland from the
coast by the late evening, filling in across much of the region
throughout the overnight hours and into the morning Saturday.
Forecast models show a wide range of solutions with this system,
with uncertainty over the timing and location of showers, as well
as temperatures which will largely influence precipitation type
and accumulation amounts. Temperatures will also be warmer over
the weekend with lows across the lowlands in the upper 20s to
lower 30s and highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s, so much of the
incoming precipitation may fall as a wintry mix or even rain.
Ensembles highlight the highest potential for accumulating snow
over higher terrain, while the lowlands may see some brief snow on
Saturday that melts fairly quickly. Moist northwest flow will
develop aloft on Sunday, with potential for some flurries and
light drizzle over the region but accumulations will be mostly
limited to the mountains.

15

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...From Previous
Discussion...Forecast models show strong agreement for a positively
tilted trough passing over the Pacific Northwest by Monday
afternoon. This will reintroduce cooler temperatures into the
region, with lows falling once again into the teens to low 20s for
the lowlands. Depending on the exact placement and amplitude of this
troughing, temperatures will could end up anywhere from below
average to exceptionally cold. Heading into the rest of next week,
large variations in the forecast remain. While models remain
uncertain on exact outcomes at this time, ensemble products reflect
high confidence in extended cold conditions across western
Washington. By the end of the forecast period, ridging across the
eastern Pacific may break down, leading to increased precipitation
chances across the area.

Knauss

&&

.AVIATION...Northerly flow aloft this evening and overnight before
turning westerly Friday morning. Most terminals reporting surface
winds with at least some northerly component. Majority showing
northeasterly to match up with persistent Fraser outflow, although
some sites reporting more north to northwesterly. HQM is doing its
own thing with easterly winds there. These directions will persist
overnight before changing over to more southerly by late Friday
morning/early Friday afternoon. Current speeds dependent on terrain
and orientation with regard to said Fraser outflow. Most sites
reporting NE winds seeing speeds generally 8-12 kts with occasional
gusts while remainder of terminals generally 4-8 kts.

Cigs a mixed bag over the area with terminals around the Sound and
along the Strait seeing MVFR to IFR conditions while remaining sites
are VFR due to clearing. Models continue to suggest locations with
MVFR to IFR conditions will see cigs lift into VFR overnight, though
it may take longer than current TAF projections. Will need to take
this revised timing into account with the 06Z update. Widespread VFR
conditions expected Friday morning and persisting throughout the
remainder of the TAF period.

.KSEA...MVFR conditions persist as low clouds linger. Models still
advertising some improvement late tonight into the early morning
hours with VFR conditions emerging and persisting for the majority
of the TAF period. North/northeasterly winds 10 to 15 knots expected
to begin subsiding around 09Z-15Z late tonight or early Friday
morning before shifting southerly/southwesterly after 19Z, with
speeds easing to 5 to 7 kt.

18/MGF

&&

.MARINE...A surface trough over the coastal waters will gradually
move over the coastal waters Friday through the weekend bringing an
increase in winds late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, but
should remain below small craft criteria, according to guidance.
Waves are expected to remain below 10 ft through next week; combined
seas this weekend will be around 3 to 5 ft. They will build to 4 to
7 ft by Monday and continue through mid next week.

MGF

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Western Whatcom
     County.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Bellevue and
     Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-East Puget Sound Lowlands-
     Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Seattle and Vicinity-
     Tacoma Area-Western Skagit County.

PZ...None.
&&

$$