Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

586
FXUS61 KAKQ 240837
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
337 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the Southeast today before moving offshore
Monday. This will bring dry conditions and gradually warming
temperatures. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday with a few
light showers possible. Widespread rain is expected by Thanksgiving
as low pressure moves over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 335 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Patchy frost is possible early this morning.

- Mild today with highs in the 60s.

A strong area of low pressure (~976mb) was moving towards the Gulf
of St Lawrence early this morning with high pressure over the
Southeast, ridging into the local area. Temps as of 240 AM ranged
from the upper 30s to lower 40s for most with local areas of mid
30s. Partly to mostly clear skies were noted with cirrus moving
across much of the area. However, the cirrus appears to be thin
enough for minimal impact on temps. As such, expect morning lows in
the mid 30s inland (locally upper 30s) and low-mid 40s along the
coast and across the Eastern Shore due to winds remaining elevated.
Additionally, given temps in the mid 30s, patchy frost is
possible for portions of E/SE VA and NE NC where the
frost/freeze program is still active.

High pressure continues to build into the Southeast today as a ridge
aloft begins to build into the E CONUS. This will result in a mild
day with highs in the mid 60s for most (upper 50s to around 60F
across the Eastern Shore). Most model guidance shows clear skies
today. However, given the widespread cirrus noted over the area and
upstream into the Great Lakes, this appears too optimistic. The HRRR
is the only CAM that shows cirrus lingering over the FA through the
day, but given the current satellite presentation, this appears
plausible. As such, expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
today with plenty of sunrise filtering through cirrus. Cirrus
lingers into tonight, but appears thin enough to have minimal
impact on temps once again with lows in the low-mid 30s W to the
upper 30s to lower 40s E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages...

- A warmup is expected early this week.

- A few isolated showers are possible Tuesday as a cold front
  moves through.

High pressure centered over the Southeast moves offshore by Mon
underneath a ridge aloft. As such, warm weather is expected with
highs in the mid-upper 60s (locally 70F) Mon and Tue. Cloud cover
increases late Mon into Tue afternoon ahead of a cold front.
Moisture will be limited with the front given the low and upper
level forcing displaced well to the N. However, a few light showers
are possible (20-30% PoPs). Cooler air moves in Tue night behind the
front with lows in the lower 30s inland and upper 30s to lower 40s
closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 335 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Confidence has increased in widespread rain arriving on
  Thanksgiving.

- Very cold weather moves in next weekend.

Dry weather is expected on Wed with highs in the mid 50s to lower
60s. Confidence has increased in an area of low pressure moving
through the area late Thu into Fri, deepening as it moves NE off of
the New England coast on Fri. As such, rain chances have increased
with the EPS showing 0.4" of mean QPF and the GEFS showing 0.5-0.75"
of mean QPF. While details regarding exact timing of the low remain
uncertain, there is a high chance of >0.1" of rain with the highest
chance on Thu. This increase in confidence has been reflected in NBM
PoPs which now show a 65-80% chance of rain across the entire FA on
Thu into Thu night with the best chance across the Piedmont.
Additionally, expect the temp forecast for Thu to change in the
coming days as models get a better handle on the timing and track of
the low. A wide range of temps are possible depending on the low
track which makes the difference between a cold rain or a mild
rain. A very cold airmass arrives behind this system for next
weekend into early next week for a fitting start to the month of
December. Highs in the 40s are possible Sat and Sun with lows
in the 20s (mid 20s for most) possible Sat and Sun nights. Temps
may even drop below freezing all the way to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1235 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions continue through the 6z taf period. FEW-SCT
cirrus continue through Sunday with otherwise mostly
clear/sunny conditions. Light W winds continue into early this
morning, becoming SW after sunrise with winds increasing to 5-10
kt in the afternoon. Winds become calm overnight.

Outlook: Mainly dry and VFR continue through Wednesday. One
exception will be a cold front early Tuesday that will bring a
minimal chance of showers, mainly from RIC to SBY. Low pressure
will bring a higher chance for rain and degraded flight
conditions by Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions return later this morning and
  continue into early this week.

- A cold front crosses the waters on Tuesday leading to a brief potential
  for SCA conditions.

- A stronger frontal system approaches late in the week, leading
  to the potential for a prolonged period of elevated
  winds/seas.

Early this morning, low pressure continues to lift further north and
high pressure is building in from the south. The pressure gradient
continues to relax, which has allowed for winds to diminish below
SCA criteria. Winds are generally out of the west this morning and
range from 10 to 15 knots (15 to 20 knots far northern coastal
waters). Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet across the southern
waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters.

Winds continue to diminish this morning into this afternoon as high
pressure builds into the area and will average around 10 to 15
knots. Sub-SCA conditions are expected this afternoon through Monday
with high pressure in control. Winds become southerly and increase
later Monday evening into Monday night ahead of the next cold front,
but should generally stay sub-SCA through this timeframe. There will
be a brief window of potential SCA winds Tuesday morning with the
frontal passage, especially over the Chesapeake Bay and coastal
waters. After Tuesday morning, generally benign conditions return
into Thursday before a stronger front crosses the area Thursday
night. There will likely be a prolonged period of elevated
winds/seas behind this front as much colder air filters in the
region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB