Suffolk, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

597
FXUS61 KAKQ 251045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
645 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north across the area today, followed by a cold
front Saturday. This will result in a period of unsettled weather
today through Saturday. Drier and cooler weather return for Sunday
and Monday, followed by another warmup with above normal
temperatures heading into the middle of next week. Another cold
front approaches the region by Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Patchy fog is possible early this morning across SE VA and NE NC.

- A warm front lifts across the forecast area today, with
  scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms mainly
  west of I-95.

High pressure was centered well offshore early this morning, with a
ridge aloft across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Temps as of
640 AM ranged from the upper 40s E to lower 60s SW with lower
50s for most. Additionally, given the mostly clear skies across
SE VA/NE NC and calm winds, some patchy fog has developed.
Patchy fog will remain possible across these areas for the next
hour or so with conditions quickly improving later this morning.

A warm front lifts N across the area today, allowing for scattered
showers/storms to develop generally W of I-95 (40-60% PoPs). Cloud
cover increases ahead of the convection with skies becoming mostly
cloudy this afternoon. Otherwise, temps warm into the upper 70s to
lower 80s across the area today, apart from upper 60s to around 70F
across the Eastern Shore coastline. Lows tonight remain mild in the
low-mid 60s.

Dew points increase into the mid 60s tonight with a plume of
elevated instability lifting N across the area. As such, additional
scattered showers and storms likely develop overnight across the FA,
moving E/NE with time. Given the elevated instability and seasonally
high dew points, have kept a chance for storms in the forecast
overnight (as opposed to just showers). Overall QPF amounts are
expected to be generally light through tonight, with generally less
than 0.10" E of I-95 and 0.1-0.25" W of I-95. However, locally
higher amounts are likely given the scattered nature of the
convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are likely on Saturday as a cold front
  moves across the area.

- Much cooler and drier weather arrives Sunday behind the cold front.

A cold front moves SE across the area Sat before pushing offshore
Sat evening. Scattered showers and storms will be possible through
the day Sat with two main rounds of convection. The first round is
the continuation of convection from tonight into Sat morning,
associated with a broad shortwave moving through the area. Behind
this convection, there may be a brief break in the precip before
additional scattered showers/storms develop along the cold front as
it moves into the area. Models are in disagreement with how
much instability forms behind the first round of storms and
ahead of the second round. The GFS keeps SBCAPE below 1000 J/kg
Sat afternoon whereas the 3km NAM is the most aggressive with
1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE. The HRRR is in between both of these
solutions, showing 1000- 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. As such,
confidence is low in instability. Given this uncertainty, SPC
has not issued a Marginal risk for severe storms. However, if
models trend higher with instability and any breaks in the cloud
cover occur, storms may become strong to severe with strong
winds the primary hazard. Will note that the general model
consensus is for stronger shear and higher storm coverage across
the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore. As such, this area has
the highest chance for strong to severe storms at this time.
Convection tapers off from NW to SE Sat evening as the cold
front drops SE with dry weather returning after ~midnight Sat
night. Total QPF (rainfall) is expected to be light across the
region with generally 0.1-0.25" of additional rainfall Sat.
However, locally higher totals are likely. Nevertheless, heavy
rain and flooding is not expected.

Much cooler and drier weather arrives Sun, allowing for quite a
split in the weekend weather. Highs cool from the lower 80s (locally
mid 80s) Sat to the lower 70s (upper 60s across the Eastern Shore)
Sun. Lows in the mid 40s NW to mid 50s SE Sat night and mid 40s
inland (low-mid 50s along the coast) Sun night are expected.
Additionally, Sun will be breezy behind the cold front with NW
winds gusting to ~20-25 mph inland and 30 mph along the coast
and across the Eastern Shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Near normal temperatures Monday, with well above average temperatures
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms are possible Wednesday
  and Thursday.

Aloft, a tall ridge builds across the East Coast through midweek
before a shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and Canada by
midweek. At the surface, high pressure remains over the area Mon
before sliding SE offshore Tue. This will allow for a warmup with
well above normal temps expected through midweek as temps warm from
the 70s Mon to the low-mid 80s Tue and upper 80s Wed. A cold front
approaches the area from the N Wed into Wed night, allowing for
cooler temps with highs in the low-mid 70s NE to mid-upper 80s SW
Thu. Additionally, scattered (mainly diurnal showers and storms are
possible Wed and Thu afternoons and evenings.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Friday...

Partly cloudy skies and calm winds early this morning will
become mostly cloudy by this afternoon. Patchy fog across SE
VA/NE NC is expected to dissipate between 12-13z this morning.
For now, have a brief tempo at PHF and ECG for the fog. CIGs
remain generally VFR today, gradually lowering tonight to MVFR
CIGs possible after 4z Sat. SBY may lower to IFR CIGs by around
9z Sat. As a warm front lifts N today, scattered showers/storms
develop generally along and W of I-95 this afternoon into early
this evening. Confidence in any shower/storm reaching RIC or SBY is
too low for any given time to reflect as prevailing in the TAF
before 9z Sat. As such, have added a PROB30 at RIC and SBY to
account for the uncertainty. For the rest of the terminals,
showers/storms should hold off until after 9z Sat with PoPs
continuing from late tonight through Sat. Winds become S 5-10 kt
(10 kt for most) this afternoon behind the warm front.

Outlook: Scattered showers and storms are likely Sat ahead of
and along an approaching cold front. However, rainfall totals
appear low with low confidence in timing for any given
shower/storm. MVFR CIGs are possible during this timeframe. VFR
conditions return for Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Relatively benign marine conditions continue today, although
  there is the potential for marine fog this morning.

- Winds increase ahead of a cold front tonight into Saturday
  with low-end Small Craft conditions expected. High end Small
  Craft Advisory are likely Saturday night into early Sunday
  behind that cold front.

- SCAs have been issued for all marine zones starting either
  tonight or Saturday night and continuing through Sunday.

Light onshore flow continues across the marine area early this
morning with sfc high pressure offshore. Winds remain E-SE at 5-10
kt this morning before becoming SE at 10-15 kt (highest on the bay)
during the aftn. There is the potential for marine fog (possibly
dense for a few hrs) across the ocean (especially N of Cape Henry)
between 5 AM-noon. Will monitor this and issue MWSs/Marine Dense Fog
Advisories as necessary. A cold front approaches from the NW tonight
as low pressure tracks well N/NW of the area. With the pressure
gradient tightening, winds increase to 15-20 kt tonight (with gusts
of 20-25 kt) and veer to the south. Also, seas are expected to build
to 4-5 ft N/3-4 ft S by late tonight. While it is marginal, went
ahead and issued SCAs starting at 08z/4 AM tonight for the bay,
James River, and coastal waters N of Parramore Island. SCAs run
through Sunday and have been issued for the remainder of the waters
for the post-frontal winds starting Sat night. Still expect a brief
lull in the winds Saturday aftn before the cold front crosses the
waters Saturday night. Tstms are possible late Sat aftn through Sat
evening along and just ahead of the front, which could necessitate
SMWs.

The front (with decent CAA for late April with 925mb temps dropping
to 3-6C) is progged to cross the waters during the first part of Sat
night. While the 00z/25 guidance has backed off by a couple of knots
with respect to winds, still expecting solid SCA conditions for 6-12
hours following the FROPA. NNW winds will average 25 kt with gusts
of 30-35 kt between midnight and 10 AM Sunday morning. While
occasional low-end gale gusts are likely (especially on the bay at
elevated terminals), there is not enough confidence to issue Gale
Watches attm. Will note that the stronger (~35-40 kt) 900-925mb
winds remain just to our north Sunday AM as per the NAM/GFS. Local
wind probabilities for >34 kt gusts have decreased a bit, and are 20-
30% north and around 10% S of Windmill Pt/Parramore Island. Small
Craft Advisory winds continue through most of Sunday, followed by
much lighter winds Sunday night into the first half of next week.
SCAs potentially return early Wednesday in elevated SW flow, though
uncertainty is high at this time range.

Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 1-2 ft and seas of 2-3 ft persist
today. Seas build to 4-5 ft across the northern coastal waters by
late tonight/Saturday with 3-4 ft seas farther south. Seas build
further to 4-6 ft Sunday morning behind the front, with 3-5 ft waves
on the bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 4 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ630>632-634-637-638-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 4 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ635-636-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI