Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

724
FXUS61 KRNK 111840
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
140 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Colder and drier weather is expected through the end of the
week under high pressure. Another low pressure system with
precipitation will arrive in the area this weekend. Temperatures
look to increase to above normal levels by the beginning of the
next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key messages:

   - Wind Advisory Issued through tonight

   - Winter Weather Advisory issued through Thursday morning

Upslope snow showers are expected to continue overnight tonight
across SE West Virginia and portions of SW Virginia along the
West Virginia border. Light accumulations will be possible along
these areas, with 1-3 inches forecast. Western Greenbrier county
will likely see the top end of those forecast totals, with the
remaining counties likely only seeing the bottom end of those
forecast totals. Snow showers and flurries are expected to end
by the early morning hours on Thursday. With continued height
falls overnight, cold air advection will continue through
Thursday morning with temperatures falling into the low to mid
20s west of the Blue Ridge, and into the upper 20s East of the
Blue Ridge. With the upper level trough still remaining over the
eastern conus on Thursday, low 500mb heights combined with 850
temperatures in the -5->-10 degree range, temperatures will
struggle to climb out of the low to mid 30s west of the Blue
Ridge. The Piedmont is expected to be slightly warmer in the mid
to upper 40s. Overall, as surface high pressure settles into the
region early Thursday morning, expect clear skies for much of
the day.

&&

Through Saturday night
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Warmer with periods of cloudiness.

2) Precipitation develops Saturday night as a warm front approaches.

The upper low responsible for bringing us rain today will continue
to eject northeast into northern Quebec. This will put our area in
near westerly flow. Early Friday morning high pressure will be
overhead and winds will be light and variable. Skies will be clear
to mostly clear for most of the night before cirrus drifts into the
area towards daybreak. Precipitable water will not be very low at
all, around a third of an inch (but still below the daily mean of
0.46 inches). With westerly flow temperatures will be warmer on the
ridges, in the upper 20s, and in the upper teens/20s for the lower
terrain.

High pressure will be in control both Friday and Saturday, with a
wedge developing Saturday. Cloud cover increases by early Saturday,
with 850mb flow turning southerly ahead of a warm front lifting into
the southern Appalachians. Precipitation develops after dark
Saturday night into Sunday morning. We should see mostly rain,
although the wedge will keep colder temperatures over the Alleghany
Highlands, and we may see a wintry mix develop there and mix in with
or changeover to rain sometime Sunday morning.

Temperatures look mild, in the 40s and 50s for highs. Overnight lows
warm above freezing by Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Confidence in the short term is high for most parameters except
lower for timing of precipitation.

&&

Sunday through Wednesday
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Dreary but on the warm side, with precipitation Sunday and early
Monday.

2) Warmer and dry early next week, followed by a low chance for rain
for midweek.

Rain and perhaps a little snow for the mountains continues Sunday
and Monday, making for dreary weather as a closed low sharpens and
passes nearby. Brief ridging will allow for a warmup early next week
into the 50s and low 60s, as well as a break from widespread rain.
Another low moves out of the Central Plains and towards the OH and
TN Valleys Tuesday. The likelihood of widespread rain for our area
currently looks slim here, with the dragging cold front very far
away from the parent low. The western mountains are the most likely
to see anything measurable. For most of the region, the GEFS
probabilities for more than a tenth of an inch of precipitation
is 30 percent or less.

Confidence is moderate for most parameters, but lower for the
timing/occurrence of precipitation midweek.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Wednesday...

MVFR to IFR CIGs are expected to continue across BLF, BCB, LWB,
and ROA through the Thursday morning, with LYH and DAN likely
lifting to VFR levels by this evening. Snow showers moving into
SE West Virginia will cause reduced visibilities at LWB and BLF
through the evening and during the overnight hours before
coming to an end by Thursday morning. The cold front has
predominantly made its way through the region so far this
afternoon, with westerly winds being reported at all terminals
over the last couple of hours. These winds will be gusty at
times, with gusts of 20 to 40 knots possible through 06Z
tonight.

Westerly winds do look to remain elevated through the end of
the TAF period Thursday afternoon, but will likely remain in the
15-25 knot range.


Note: The ceilometer at KLYH, Lynchburg Airport is inop. Electronic
techs will visit the site today to repair the instrument. Until
then, the ceiling will only be reported when the tower is
staffed.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Thursday morning any remaining MVFR upslope clouds along the
western slopes of the central Appalachians will dissipate. The
rest of the area will be VFR.

Dry and cold VFR weather is expected on Friday and Saturday.
The next weather system that may bring flight restrictions comes
in late Saturday night and Sunday and looks to be most, if not
all rain.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Thursday for VAZ007.
NC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Thursday for WVZ042-043-
     508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS