Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

681
FXUS61 KRNK 111428
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1028 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system over the central Appalachians will move east
today bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms, before tracking
offshore Saturday. Sunday and Monday will be dry and warmer under
high pressure. Another front sends temperatures below normal
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

     - High confidence for rain today

     - Threat of Flooding is minimal

Upper trough over the eastern United States continues to
amplify. A 500 MB Low closes off over the Delmarva by Saturday
morning. Positive vorticity advection, colder air aloft and
larger lapse rates, and some upper diffluence all aide in
providing lift and rain for the area today. The air mass overall
cools and 850 mb temperatures by late tonight drop below zero
degC in the mountains.

The surface low crosses North Carolina by the end of the day with
the wind turning from northeast to northwest. The northwest
wind will result in the ending the precipitation east of the
Blue Ridge per development of downslope drying. In the west upslope
precipitation may continue albeit light. The clouds will also
linger.

Given the dynamic nature of the system will maintain a slight
chance for a thunderstorm in the piedmont of southern Virginia
and northern North Carolina where NBM probabilities are the
highest this afternoon. There is also a low threat of flooding
(mainly poor drainage areas) in the Virginia piedmont east of
US-29 where the duration of the rainfall will be longer today.

Based on the cloud cover and persistent precipitation will
again have maximum temperatures on the cold end of the range of
guidance for today. Lows tonight will be near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for cooler and unsettled weather to linger
into Saturday.

2) Drier weather will arrive by Sunday, and above normal
temperatures should return on Monday ahead of a cold front.

A deep upper level low will slowly drift towards the East Coast on
Saturday. Showers may linger during the morning and slowly fade by
the afternoon. Upslope flow from a gusty northwest wind and colder
air may allow some snow showers to mix with the rain across the
higher elevations from Boone to Lewisburg, but hardly any
accumulations are expected. Drier air should bring an end to the
lingering moisture by Saturday night. While temperatures will remain
well below normal for Saturday and into Sunday morning, they will
moderate by Sunday afternoon as high pressure arrives. However, a
weak warm front may provide a low chance of showers across parts of
Bath and Greenbrier counties during early Sunday night.

Monday appears notably warmer as an upper level ridge builds
overhead and a southwest breeze develops. The increased sunshine and
warm air advection should push temperatures into the 70s for a
majority of locations. The southwest breeze is in response to an
approaching cold front over the Ohio River Valley. This frontal
boundary may bring scattered showers towards the Appalachian
Mountains by Monday evening, and there may be enough instability for
an isolated thunderstorm across southeast West Virginia before the
atmosphere stabilizes during Monday night. Because the cold front
does not contain a lot of moisture, it appears that the rain may
stay mostly west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for cooler weather and a gusty northwest
wind during Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Drier conditions should return on Wednesday, but another cold
front could approach by late Thursday.

By Tuesday, a cold front should sweep across the Mid Atlantic.
Colder and drier air should follow in the wake of this frontal
boundary, which will allow a gusty northwest wind to shove
temperatures lower on Tuesday night. Lingering upslope moisture
across southeast West Virginia should fade by early Wednesday
morning. With high pressure returning on Wednesday, drier conditions
should return. Temperature should moderate back to near normal
values by Thursday as the flow turns to the southwest to increase
warm air advection. Another cold front will approach from the west
to provide a chance of showers towards late Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

Conditions ranged from VFR to LIFR due to ceilings and dense
fog. As showers continue to advance north through Virginia the
visibility will improve. Ceilings, however, will take much
longer to lift.

A surface low crosses North Carolina by the end of the day with
the wind turning from the southeast to northeast to northwest.
The northwest wind and passage of the cold front will result in
the ending the precipitation east of the Blue Ridge. In the west
the low level jet is less then 30 kts and the wind direction is
more north than would be more favorable for upslope
precipitation. Still some gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon
and evening are possible at higher elevations.

The MVFR to IFR clouds will remain over the area through at
least 00Z/8PM. NBM has the highest probability of thunderstorms,
20 to 30 percent in the piedmont of southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina this afternoon. Confidence too low to
include in the KDAN TAF at this time.

Above average confidence for sub-VFR for most of the TAF period
Average confidence on wind and when the rain will end this
evening.

FYI...The ASOS at KLYH ceilometer readings may be compromised
due to equipment issues. Use the reported ceiling with caution.
AMD NOT SKED has been added to the KLYH TAF.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Showers and sub-VFR linger into early Saturday, and even after
showers end, it may take until Sunday morning for the area to
return to VFR flight conditions.

Expect VFR Sunday into Monday. May see some sub-VFR cigs with a
few showers Tuesday but low confidence.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/EB