Richmond, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

943
FXUS61 KAKQ 111500
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1100 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaches the region today, bringing
widespread rainfall and unsettled conditions into tonight.
Dreary conditions continue through much of Saturday with an
upper low remaining over the area. High pressure gradually
builds back into the area Sunday into early next week bringing
a warming trend. A series of cold fronts likely cross the region
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers continues over the area today, with locally
  heavy rainfall possible.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Virginia
  and northeast North Carolina this afternoon into this
  evening.

- The primary threats with any stronger storms will be the potential
  for hail and strong wind gusts.

1014mb low pressure is centered over the Carolinas late this
morning with a warm front extending out ahead of it into eastern
NC. Low pressure gradually lifts into southeastern portions of
the area this afternoon/evening. Widespread rain showers are
then expected to continue through much of the day, with PoPs
into the 90-95% chance range for many. Rain will be moderate to
heavy at times, with widespread 1-2" rainfall totals (locally
higher) today through tonight. This rainfall will generally be
beneficial, but some localized instances of flooding will be
possible (especially in urban or poor drainage areas), thus WPC
has placed the entire area in a Day 1 Marginal ERO. Trimmed PoPs
late this afternoon and evening across the south based on the
latest model guidance.

Will also be keeping a close eye on a Marginal (1 out of 5) severe
weather threat across our far southern and southeastern areas this
afternoon into this evening. Mid-level lapse rates become locally
steep later today as an upper low moves in (mid-level lapse rates
around 7-7.5 C/km possible). Low level moisture will also be on
the increase for our southern areas later today, with dewpoints
in the mid to upper 50s, allowing for at least some modest CAPE
to develop. Finally, 0-6km shear will be increasing to around
50 knots (potentially higher). Severe hail and/or wind will be
possible with any stronger storms. Additionally, cannot
completely rule out a few rotating storms with a 2% tornado
chance clipping areas along the Albemarle Sound. However, with
dew points less than 60F, the tornado threat is very limited.
The main limiting factors are widespread convection and low
dewpoints/CAPE. Given the lapse rates and favorable time of year
for hail, would not be surprised to get at least small hail out
of several storms if we can get enough instability. Overall,
today`s severe weather threat is more of a conditional threat
locally, with the best parameters likely located further south.

Trimmed a few degrees off of afternoon high temperatures across
the Piedmont with in-situ CAD likely to lock in across these
areas. Temperatures today will range from the low 50s across
the NW, to the mid 60s across the SE. Rain chances gradually
diminish from south to north tonight as the low lifts along far
eastern portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures and cloudy skies continue on Saturday.

- Temperatures gradually rebound Sunday.

Surface low pressure lingers off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday
into early Sunday, with an upper low also becoming centered over
the area during that timeframe. This will lead to a mostly
cloudy to overcast day on Saturday, with lingering light rain
chances (best chances east) or drizzle over the region.
Temperatures will remain chilly, with highs only in the 50s.
Some locations across the northern MD Eastern Shore will likely
only climb into the mid to upper 40s. A mainly dry day is
expected for Sunday with rebounding temperatures as the low
pulls further east. Highs on Sunday will generally be in the low
to mid 60s (Upper 50s Eastern Shore).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A warmup is expected early next week with dry weather returning.

A warmup is expected Monday and Tuesday as a ridge briefly builds
over the area before sliding offshore. Temps warm into the mid-upper
70s Monday and upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday. A series of cold fronts
push through Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday with cooler
temps arriving by midweek. Breezy W winds are expected Tuesday
afternoon with winds gusting to 20-30 mph. Temps cool by mid week
with highs in the upper 50s NE to mid-upper 60s S Wednesday and 60s
Thursday. Lows back into the upper 30s (locally mid 30s) are
possible Wednesday night, however, confidence is low at this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Friday...

MVFR to IFR CIGs across northern and western portions of the
area this morning (RIC and SBY), with VFR CIGs remaining across
the SE. CIGs will continue to lower from NW to SE through this
morning, with IFR eventually reaching all sites (minus ECG) by
late morning or early afternoon. May see a brief improvement in
CIGs at ECG and potentially ORF later this afternoon as low
pressure continues to move north. All sites are then expected to
see IFR CIGs later this evening through at least Saturday
morning.

Rain chances rapidly increase this morning from south to north,
continuing through much of the day with multiple rounds of
moderate to potentially locally heavy showers expected
(potentially reducing VSBYs to MVFR or even IFR at times).
Shower chances gradually diminish from south to north later this
evening into tonight. Some thunder is also possible this
afternoon/evening, with the highest confidence at ECG at this
time where a PROB30 mention was introduced.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely to continue into at
least Saturday as an upper level low lingers across the area
through this weekend, allowing for unsettled weather and
occasional showers to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1045 AM EST Friday...

- SCAs are in effect north of Parramore Island due to building
  seas this morning, N of Cape Charles this afternoon.

- SCAs are in effect for the Ches. Bay as winds increase with
  the low pressure system.

- SCAs are possible Saturday through early Sunday morning
  behind a cold front.

High pressure is still located off the New England coast this
morning and an area of low pressure is developing to the SW of
the local area. Later today, the low will deepen and slide NE
across the FA, tightening the pressure gradient and thus
increasing winds ahead of it. Latest obs indicate onshore winds
are at 10-15kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the Ches. Bay and
northern coastal waters. The continued onshore flow has led to
seas in the northern coastal zones building to around 5ft,
causing the SCAs for these zones. Winds will remain onshore and
gradually increase through this morning and afternoon. Have
added SCAs to the Ches. Bay as winds have begun to increase and
will continue to increase throughout the day. There may be a
lull for a few hours overnight as the low pressure centers over
NE NC.

Low pressure pushes off the coast tonight into Saturday. The wind
gradually becomes northerly tonight, and then increases to
15-20kt Saturday into Saturday night (strongest Ches. Bay and
ocean). SCAs will eventually be needed for the remainder of the
ocean zones, which should remain elevated into Sunday. High
pressure builds in from the W Sunday and passes across the
region Monday. Another cold front potentially moves across the
coast by Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ/AC/KMC