Norfolk, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

926
FXUS61 KAKQ 212035
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
335 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Several disturbances drop across the area over the next couple
of days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty winds and chilly
temperatures. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in
the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 335 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages...

- Second surge of cooler air comes in tonight helping to drop
temperatures in the lower 30s and upper 20s.

- A Freeze Warning has been issued for Thursday night over interior
northeast NC and portions of the Tidewater area.

Afternoon analysis shows a potent upper level low and trough
stretching from New England down towards Florida. At the surface two
strong (sub 1000mb) areas of low pressure are noted. The first one
that brought us the wind and showers yesterday is currently centered
just off the northeast coast. The second one is currently located
over lake Michigan. Temperatures across the area were able to warm
up a couple degrees higher due to downsloping winds from the
mountains. Temperatures across the area are sitting in the lower 50s
inland and middle 50s along the coast.

The strong trough and the associated low pressure at the surface
will slide to the south-southeast continuing to dig across the
southern Mid-Atlantic this evening and tonight. Multiple shortwaves
have been noted using SPC Meso analysis. The first one has already
moved through the area bringing the gusty winds and helping to
initiate cloud cover across the Piedmont. The second one will move
through this evening possibly initiating a isolated shower along the
Eastern Shore.

Some of the latest model guidance for tonight has the winds
decoupling inland at the surface. Low temperatures are expected to
fall in the upper 20s to the Piedmont and lower 30s across portions
of Eastern Shore, southeastern Virginia, and northeastern North
Carolina. Along the shore winds are expected to remain breezy
helping temperatures to stay up in the middle to upper 30s. A freeze
warning has been issued across portions of Tidewater and
northeastern North Carolina. The growing season has not yet ended
there and temperatures are progged to get below freezing. Will note,
if winds remain higher than forecasted it will be difficult to get
below freezing. However, low temperatures last night were able to
drop close to freezing with the wind. With the previous night
over preforming with lows, cooler air moving into the region, and a
little lighter wind expected there is high enough confidence in a
freeze warning.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages...

- Another disturbance dropping across the region will provide
another day of gusty winds, and increasing clouds for Friday.

- More widespread showers are possible on Friday. A few  instances
of graupel or even some wet snowflakes are possible  over northern
portions of the area Friday morning into early  afternoon.

-Winds will diminish late this weekend as the trough exits the
region.

The final shortwave will be transversing across the are Friday
morning as the surface low moves over eastern Pennsylvania and the
upper low diving into the southern Mid-atlantic. This shortwave will
be slightly stronger than the other two. It will bring in a stronger
shot of CAA with highs in the mid upper 40s across the Piedmont and
lower 50s along the SE coast. Pops have been extended further south
with categorical pops ending just north of the Richmond metro area.
Given the relatively shallow moisture layer between 850-700 mb
farther south, would expect minimal QPF. With the moisture layer
being primarily in the DGZ this could result in a couple reports of
graupel and or even a few snowflakes primarily north of I-64. This
will only last for a brief period of time early Friday morning before
temperatures start to warm. Ground temperatures would be much too
warm for any impacts, but certainly a sharp contrast from just a few
days ago. Showers will taper down Friday evening allowing the region
to dry out. Fridays lows will be slightly warmer as the upper low
moves out of the area and ridging takes place. Early morning low
temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Saturday and Sunday
will be slightly warmer as ridging continues to take place across the
region. Highs both days in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The lows
will be in the middle to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages...

-  High pressure moves back in bringing dry weather back across the
region to start off the weekend.

- Rain potential increases by the end of the week with another
possible system.

The latest 12z/21 ensemble guidance is in decent agreement into
early next week. A ridge and surface high pressure will move into
the area bringing dry and pleasant conditions across the CWA. By the
middle of the week ensembles begin to disagree in placement and
strength of a clipper system ushering in a cold front that will move
across the CWA. Where the low is currently forecasted the region
will see no precipitation from the system but will experience its
cold front. By Thanksgiving day Pops are reintroduced into the
forecast as the ensembles hint on a potential system moving across
the region. There is again disagreement with the models on strength
and placement. However, they do have a decent single on a potential
system bringing in showers across the region. Pops are ranges
between 15-30% for both Thursday and Friday.

Temperature wise both Monday and Tuesday will be pleasant with highs
warming back into the upper 50s to around 60s on Monday, with highs
in the lower 60s by midweek. Early morning lows warm back into the
40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Then Wednesday highs will cool
down into the lower the 50s behind the front.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EST Thursday...

Conditions have greatly improve in the wake of the front, and
CIGs have returned to VFR across area terminals. Expect the VFR
CIGs persist through the period, with NW winds to average 10-15
kt w/gusts to around 25 kt from late morning through early
evening. Sct CU/Stratocu clouds are expected, but CIGs should
remain VFR, averaging 6-8 Kft AGL. As of the latest satellite
scans these clouds have begun to develop across the Piedmont
and are now moving into the RIC terminal. Winds tonight are
expected to remain the same around most of the terminals. Some
of the latest model guidance does have wind gusts lowering
across ECG and SBY later this evening.

Outlook: Additional upper disturbances pinwheeling through will
maintain gusty W-NW winds Fri- Sat. Winds will gust to 25-30 KT
on Friday, before gradually diminishing Saturday into Sunday.
Scattered to numerous showers and flight restrictions are expected
across N/NE sections of the area (KSBY) Friday aftn/Fri night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 700 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters
  through Friday afternoon.

- Gale Warnings have been issued for most waters from late
  Friday afternoon through Friday night. Gale Watches remain in
  effect for area rivers.

The region currently is between two areas of low pressure, one
off the NJ coast and a second area over Lake Michigan. Winds
have remained at low end SCA levels through this afternoon.
Expect these winds to continue through the overnight hours as
another shortwave trough rotates through the broad closed low.
As the wave hits the coast toward 12z, winds could increase a
little and some rain showers are possible too. But SCA
conditions will persist into Friday even after this wave passes
off the coast.

The last wave that will impact the area with this upper trough
arrives late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This wave
will help a stronger sfc low over PA to drop SE off the DE coast
by early Saturday morning. The combination of the Cold Advection
and tighten pressure gradient will kick winds up to 30 - 35 kt
with gust around 40 kt possible. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts are
high for this surge with probs between 70% - 90%. SCA
conditions will continue Sat before winds gradually diminish
Sat night into Sun as high pressure builds in. As a result have
issued a Gale Warning for tomorrow afternoon into Saturday
morning for all except the area rivers where confidence is still
only moderate that gale force winds will be experienced. So have
left the Gale Watch in place for now.

Waves and seas have subsided to 2-3 ft on the Bay and 4 - 6 FT
on the ocean this afternoon. The seas will remain in this range
through Friday afternoon before increasing again Friday night
into Saturday with the strong surge of winds and then gradually
subsiding Sat afternoon into Sunday as high pressure returns to
the area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for VAZ089-090-092-
     093-096-097.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ630>638-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.
     Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for
     ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...HET/LKB/MAM
MARINE...ESS/RMM