Norfolk, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

450
FXUS61 KAKQ 071819
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
219 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves into the region today, before lingering over
the area Sunday. Afternoon and evening showers and storms are
expected both today and Sunday, with severe weather possible.
Drier weather returns on Monday, with increasing storm chances
again on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon/evening. The highest coverage of storms, and the
  greatest severe potential will be across the southern half of
  the area.

Morning surface analysis depicted a cold front approaching the
Appalachian Mountains with a shortwave aloft beginning to move
across the region. The shortwave will slide E across the region
later this morning with a few showers possible. Will note that
a few storms are possible across the MD Eastern Shore over the
next few hours. The cold front approaches from the NNW later
today and this (along with a prefrontal trough) will serve as a
trigger for convective initiation. No more than scattered
showers/isolated tstms are expected through early afternoon.
While there are some questions regarding sfc heating farther
north, temps should rise well into the 80s-near 90F south of a
FVX-PTB line with upper 60s- 70F dew pts area-wide. This will
allow for ample instability (1000- 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along and
south of I-64 despite meager mid- level lapse rates (5.5 to
6C/km), while modest height falls and the approaching cold front
provide the necessary lift for convection to develop by 2-3 PM.
Initial development will likely be across central/eastern VA.
Then, there is very good agreement in the 00z/07 CAMs that tstms
increase in coverage as they move to the SE during the late
aftn/evening before exiting the area late in the
evening/overnight. Unsure how much in the way of storms form
across northern areas (from LKU-SBY) where sfc heating won`t be
as strong. But, now have high confidence in at least scattered
tstms along and south of I-64. One factor that could suppress
convection today is if morning clouds/showers linger long enough
to impact convective initiation during the aftn/evening. With
the instability in place combined with 30-40 kt of effective
shear, strong to severe tstms are possible. The highest threat
is south of I-64 where SPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for
severe wx, while the Marginal Risk has been maintained farther
N. Still looks like primarily a damaging wind threat with storm
mode likely becoming linear...although the initial cells may be
able to produce small hail (not as confident in large hail given
high freezing levels and only 5.5 to 6C/km mid- level lapse
rates). In addition to the severe threat, localized urban/poor
drainage flooding cannot be ruled out across SE VA/NE NC. PWs
will be near 2" and despite the relatively fast storm
motions/dry antecedent conditions...a quick 2-3" would cause
some issues. Given the agreement in the CAMs, the 00z/07 HREF as
10%+ probs of 3" in 3 hours across our SE zones. As such, WPC
has introduced a MRGL Risk for Excessive Rainfall in these
areas.

Showers/tstms should temporarily exit after 10 PM or so, but another
shortwave in the fast zonal flow aloft (along with an associated sfc
low) begin to approach Sunday AM. The approaching sfc low will allow
the front to start moving back north as a warm front...and despite
the unfavorable timing in the diurnal cycle...we could see scattered
showers and isolated tstms develop as the front moves back north
through part of the CWA (mainly between 4-10 AM). Lows tonight will
mainly be in the mid 60s to around 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again Sunday  as
  a frontal boundary lingers across the region.

- A few of the storms may be strong to severe, with damaging
  wind gusts being the main threat. A brief tornado can`t
  completely be ruled out near the front.

The front continues to move north on Sunday before stalling as
secondary low pressure develops and tracks from W-E along it. The
position of the front Sunday afternoon will dictate where the
highest severe threat is as another robust shortwave aloft is
progged to quickly cross the region during the aftn-evening. A few
showers (with perhaps a rumble of thunder) are possible Sunday
morning, with scattered-numerous tstms expected once again during
the aftn/evening. Similar to Saturday, the main focus for severe wx
will be along and south of that front. Models differ on how far
north the front makes it, with the NAM and some of the CAMs showing
it from FVX-RIC-JGG during the aftn, while the HRRR and a few other
CAMs are farther north and shows the front making it to northern
portions of the CWA. Regardless, it appears as if the most likely
timing for severe wx is from 2-10 PM Sunday. Instability/deep
shear parameters on Sunday look to be roughly similar to what
they will be today. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat,
but large hail can`t completely be ruled out, given somewhat
more favorable mid level lapse rates (potentially 6 to 6.5
C/Km). Lastly, there is a low but non-zero tornado threat near
the front where winds will be locally backed and more out of the
SE. SPC has expanded the SLGT (Level 2/5) Risk to include the
entire area on Sunday. There will also be the potential for
locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding given PWATs remaining
elevated and with the front nearly parallel to the mid level
flow. Precip quickly exits after 10-11 PM Sun night once again
with lows falling into the mid-upper 60s.

By Monday, PW anomalies return to near normal with the front washing
out across NC, so PoPs are mainly 20% or less, with the exception of
20-30% near the Albemarle Sound.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Unsettled conditions return Tuesday, with mostly dry weather
  expected by Wednesday/Thursday.

Scattered-numerous aftn/evening tstms are once again expected on
Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of another (fairly strong)
shortwave trough pushing through the lower Great Lakes. There will
likely at least some sort of organized severe threat given that the
mid-level flow will be 30-45 kt with a decent amount of instability
to work with. By Wednesday, high pressure and drier conditions
potentially return to the region as the trough axis moves offshore.
Dry wx continues on Thu, with isolated aftn/evening convection
potentially returning on Fri. Temperatures will be near normal Tue,
then trending above normal later in the week with highs into the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Saturday...

A cold front approaches the area later this afternoon into this
evening, allowing for scattered showers and storms to develop.
Mainly SCT sky cover is expected outside of convection this
afternoon with BKN conditions with areas of convection.
Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon at all terminals with
the highest confidence at ORF/ECG. As such, have added TEMPOs
to narrow down the timing for each terminal. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rain are possible in any stronger storms.
Additionally, cannot rule out some MVFR CIGs with showers/storms,
but confidence is lower. The one exception is SBY where MVFR
CIGs are likely through the afternoon. Showers and storms taper
off from NW to SE later this afternoon into this evening with
another round of scattered showers and storms moving into the
area late tonight into Sun morning. Scattered storms will
continue to be possible through Sun afternoon. CIGs lower to
MVFR by 6-8z, eventually lowering to IFR after 9z. A mixture of
MVFR/IFR CIGs is likely through Sun afternoon.

Degraded flying conditions linger into Mon morning with
improving conditions expected Mon. Generally dry conditions are
expected Mon with additional scattered showers and storms moving
through on Tue with flight restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue
through the weekend and into early next week.

- Potential for scattered to widespread strong thunderstorms this
afternoon into this evening and again on Sunday.

Weak low pressure remains situated off the NJ coast this afternoon
and a nearly stationary front is draped northwest of the local
waters. Winds this afternoon are generally out of the S or SW and
range from 5 to 10 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet, and
waves in the Chesapeake Bay generally around 1 foot (up to 2 feet at
the mouth).

Light flow onshore flow develops late this afternoon into the
evening at 5-10 kt. A prefrontal trough will help to initiate
showers and storms over inland areas this afternoon, moving toward
the coast this evening. A few of these could be locally strong to
severe with gusts 35-50 kt possible. The southern Chesapeake Bay and
coastal waters have somewhat higher chances strong storms this
evening vs points to the north. Sub-SCA conditions continue tonight
(outside of any thunderstorm influences). Onshore flow develops
again by Sunday afternoon with greater coverage of showers and
storms expected area wide from late afternoon into the early
overnight hours. Strong winds will be the main threat once again on
Sunday. An area of low pressure potentially forms along the front
early next week (late Monday into Tuesday) which could allow the
front to drop south of the waters by mid week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB/RHR