Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

310
FXUS61 KRNK 170748
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
348 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring light winds and mostly sunny skies
to the region today. Southerly winds will bring warming
temperatures by Friday, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
warmer than normal for the weekend. There are several low
chances for rain next week as several frontal systems linger in
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Frost dissipates quickly later this morning.

2) Warmer and quiet weather.

Frost has developed across the area this morning, in response to
temperatures between 33 and 37 degrees, lower dew points, and
light winds. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for much of the
piedmont, where the growing season has started. Temperatures
should warm quickly later this morning in the dry air mass, and
frost will dissipate quickly.

An upper trough continues to move east off of New England this
morning, while ridging over the southern Plains and the Midwest
also builds east today. Surface high pressure centered just to
our north will move off the Mid Atlantic coast by tonight.
Today should be mostly sunny, with some passing cirrus at times.
Mid and high clouds build in from the west this afternoon and
evening as an elevated warm front pushes through. No
precipitation is expected with plenty of dry air still in place.
Increasing heights and sunny skies will help temperatures
increase to the low to upper 60s areawide. Lows tonight will be
near normal.

Confidence is high in this scenario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Warming trend by the weekend

2) Gusty conditions as cold front approaches

A pressure gradient will form over the Mid-Atlantic as a low
pressure system from the west travels northeastward. Winds are
not expected to meet Wind Advisory criteria but could be gusty
between 25-35 mph at the highest elevations along the Blue
Ridge. A low level jet could potentially graze the northern
counties and create local wind gusts in West Virginia, but
current confidence of any influence from this jet is low. Winds
will be from the southwest which will permit warm and moist air
to enter the region. Dew points are projected to reach up into
the upper 50s and high temperatures could be in the lower 80s by
this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) A few chances of precipitation early next week

2) Warming trend continues

There are few chances of precipitation for next week. The first
one is less confident as it is highly dependent on the presence
of a cold front. A 500mb ridge off the Carolina coast will be
responsible for redirecting any storms away from the Mid-
Atlantic and preventing an approaching cold front from passing
through. There is still a chance, however, the boundary will
intersect with at least the more northern counties. Storms may
form as a result along this area due to other somewhat favorable
parameters such as high temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s
and lapse rates between 6-7 C/km. Potential impacts regarding
severe weather and rainfall amounts are still uncertain and will
become clear as we get closer to the weekend.

A better chance for precipitation will be mid-next week where
a separate cold front is projected to pass through the area and
act as a lifting mechanism for thunderstorms. Warm and moist
conditions are likely to still persist into the week, setting up
conditions for widespread thunderstorm development. It is
currently too early to be confident of any severe weather
potential and the SPC has not made any mention of this event.

A large high pressure system moves in after the cold front
passes, but at this point there is too much model guidance
disagreement to ascertain what weather is expected by the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Widespread VFR expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. High
pressure will bring mainly clear skies and light winds.
Increasing high level clouds are forecast tonight into Friday
morning as a short wave moves through aloft...but no
precipitation is expected.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure is expected through Friday, before another system
over the weekend brings increasing chances for sub-VFR
conditions, with storms possible Sunday and Monday.

Winds Friday through the weekend look southwesterly and gusty
at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Dry Weather through Saturday.

High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and light winds to
the area today. Increasing high level clouds are forecast
tonight into Friday morning as a short wave moves through
aloft...but no precipitation is expected. Increasing southwest
winds will bring warming temperatures Friday and Saturday with
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for the
weekend. No rain is forecast through Saturday.

A variance may be needed for low RH Thursday afternoon, but wind
will NOT be a factor. A variance may be needed Friday and
Saturday for higher elevation burns due to elevated wind speeds
near the exposed ridgetops (gusts 20 mph). Dewpoints/humidity
increase over the weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...SH
FIRE WEATHER...PM/SH