Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

822
FXUS61 KRNK 230839
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
339 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds and upslope precipitation will subside through this
afternoon and evening. Dry weather and gradually warming
temperatures through the beginning of next week ahead of a cold
front that is expected to arrive on Tuesday. Increasing rain
chances and cooler weather possible late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Upslope precipitation comes to and end today.

2) Gusty winds will continue to subside throughout the day.

Upslope flow continues to supply upslope moisture to the West
Virginia mountains. Main precipitation type is now liquid with
temperatures in the 33F to 38F range and warming mid-levels. Only a
few areas at the highest elevations along the western slopes still
seeing snow with surface temperatures around 32F. Thinking with
marginal temperatures, any locations still seeing ongoing snow will
have difficulty accumulating. With that in mind, have trimmed
accumulations down to only to an additional 1 to 3 in western
Greenbrier and little to none outside of Western Greenbrier. Seems
likely that some of the winter headlines will allowed to expire
early later this morning.

Winds still remain gusty this morning in the mountains with
widespread gusts still in the 35 to 45mph range. Wind Advisory
remains in effect until about daybreak, but should begin to see
winds gradually subside over the next few hours. However, will not
see winds completely relax today, remaining gusty in the 20mph range
throughout the daylight hours, eventually subsiding tonight.

Warmer temperatures today compared to the past few day. Mid to lower
40s in the mountains and low to mid 50s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Warming trend Sunday and Monday

2) Next chance of precipitation is Monday night

Surface high pressure builds in from the southwest while heights
aloft increase on Sunday. Temperatures will warm into the 50s across
the mountains and low to mid 60s in the foothills and piedmont
Sunday afternoon. Sunday night`s low temperatures will be in the
30s. Both the daytime highs and nighttime lows are 4F to 7F warmer
than normal.

Surface high pressure begins to exit as a cold front enters the Ohio
Valley Monday. Southwesterly winds will increase ahead of the front
and help temperatures warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s west of the
Blue Ridge and into the upper 60s east. Moisture advection will also
increase ahead of the front, pushing PWATs up to an inch. The daily
mean PWATs for Blacksburg (11/25) is 0.39". Models have the front
and associated showers moving quickly across the region Monday
night. Rainfall amounts of up to a quarter of an inch are possible,
especially in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Saturday...

Key Points:

1) Potent weather system to arrive during Thanksgiving holidays

2) Be careful when traveling and stay tuned for updates

High pressure will move across the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
Dry conditions with near normal temperature are expected each day.

A disturbance is expected to track along a stalled front over
Tennessee Wednesday night, then tracks across the southern
Appalachians into North Carolina Thursday and Thursday night. If
this track verifies, an active weather day is possible across
southern Virginia into the Carolinas on Thanksgiving day.

A cold front will move across the area Friday with a pressure
gradient forming over the mountains. Cooler than normal temperatures
expected Friday and Saturday along with breezy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1235 AM EST Saturday...

Due to FAA  comms issues, amend not sked for BLF will continue.

Keeping sub-MVFR cigs/vsbys over BLF and at times LWB through
the morning with MVFR to BCB/ROA and VFR east. Roanoke should
go VFR by 12z this morning. Northwest winds will continue with
gusts 30-45kt possible across the mountains/Blue Ridge/ROA, then
winds will start to subside somewhat by midday, but still gusts
to 20-25kts likely through this evening, eventually subsiding
late tonight. Expect snow showers, possibly freezing drizzle at
BLF and maybe LWB.

BLF/LWB should improve to low end MVFR cigs by Saturday
afternoon, with VFR east.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will eventually arrive by Sunday to provide VFR
conditions. Good flying weather should continue through Monday,
but a cold front will arrive by Monday night into Tuesday to
bring a chance of rain and MVFR ceilings. High pressure should
return for Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 612 PM EST Friday...

KFCX is back in service through tonight, but it will be brought
back down tomorrow to continue the ongoing maintenance and
repairs. Please use the following surrounding radars on
Saturday: KRLX (Charleston, WV), KLWX (Sterling, VA), KAKQ
(Wakefield VA), KRAH (Raleigh, NC), KGSP (Greenville-
Spartanburg SC), and KMRX (Morristown TN).

Observations from the KBLF ASOS are not available due to a FAA
communications circuit outage. Technicians are currently
working to restore service.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VAZ015.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ007-
     009.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ001-
     018.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     WVZ042>044-507.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...BMG/WP
EQUIPMENT...PW/WP