Leesburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

645
FXUS61 KLWX 071352
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
952 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly settle southward toward the area
through today, then meander across the Mid-Atlantic through
Monday. A stronger cold front will cross the area on Tuesday
night, followed by high pressure Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shortwave-trough over the OH Valley early this morning is
supporting widespread showers across the region.

A better defined line of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms
developed along I-95, and is now pushing east toward the
Chesapeake Bay. Given a stable near-surface layer, have not
noticed much wind making it down to the surface in recent obs.
These storms should move over the Eastern Shore by 11AM.
Otherwise, we will continue with intermittent light showers
through the early afternoon.

As the shortwave moves south of the area this afternoon
conditions are expected to dry out for most of the area. Higher
instability and moisture remains over portions of Central VA
where a few additional thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon. High res models continue to depict a few showers
developing in the northwesterly flow this afternoon, though
these should be quick moving and not impactful.

Mostly dry conditions this evening into the overnight, though
rain chances do start to increase late tonight as another trough
approaches from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday as
better/stronger forcing spreads across the area with more potent
shortwave-trough. HREF`s updraft maps suggest a severe wx
threat during the afternoon Sunday, generally south of I-66,
while an isolated flash flooding threat may exist further north
in the cooler air. However, storm motions are likely to be too
fast to support t-storms sitting over any particular area for
too long.

Shortwave-ridging/subsidence Sunday night and Monday should
result in more tranquil conditions. Additional shortwave energy
dropping south associated from Upper Midwest closed low will
help trigger more showers and thunderstorms across eastern OH,
western PA Monday with convection arriving late in the day in
western MD and across the rest of the area Mon night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An unseasonably deep longwave trough and embedded upper low will
approach from the west on Tuesday, while an associated area of low
pressure at the surface tracks across Southern Canada. As height
falls aloft move overtop a seasonably warm and humid airmass in
place at the surface, instability is expected to develop in what
will be a strongly sheared environment (around 50 knots of effective
bulk shear). While there may still be appreciable shifts in guidance
this far out, the ingredients appear to be there for thunderstorms,
and potentially strong to severe thunderstorms, on Tuesday.

Longwave troughing will progress off to the east by Wednesday, with
zonal flow aloft moving in for the middle to end of the week. High
pressure will build in at the surface, and drier air will advect in
at low levels behind the cold front associated with Tuesday`s
system. This will lead to drier conditions and seasonable
temperatures (highs low to mid 80s, lows upper 50s and 60s) for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread showers continue this morning, with a line of heavy
showers and some thunderstorms moving through DCA/BWI/MTN late
this morning. After this, expecting mostly light showers through
the early afternoon, then mostly dry through this evening.

More showers will move in late tonight after 06Z, with nmrs to
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon.
Severe t-storms are possible, but should remain south of the
metro terminals, potentially only affecting KCHO.

Sct t-storms possible Monday, but coverage should be lesser and
development is likely to be much later in the afternoon.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temporary drops to sub-VFR conditions may be possible on
Tuesday in showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be out of the west
to southwest on Tuesday and northwest on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA winds today, then possible SCA conditions Sun-Sun night
and again Monday night. Lightning will be the main hazard with
potential severe storms on Sunday afternoon.

Sub-SCA level west to southwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday.
Sub-SCA level northwesterly winds are expected on Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will likely impact the waters on Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A wave of low pressure along a stalled front will increase
onshore to southeast flow Sunday into Monday. Some locations
may approach minor flood levels during this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...KRR/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KRR/LFR/KJP
MARINE...KRR/LFR/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR