Alexandria, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

624
FXUS61 KLWX 170753
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
353 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build into the area through today before
moving offshore tonight. A warm front will pass through Friday
and high pressure to the south will dominate the weather pattern
for Saturday. A cold front will pass through late in the
weekend before settling to the south early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

High pressure will be overhead today and move offshore tonight.
Under clear skies and light winds, temperatures will climb into
the low to mid 60s. Warmer tonight under high clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Upper ridge will continue to build over the East through the end
of the week supporting a significant warming trend. 850 mb temps
rise from near 0C today to +15C by Saturday supporting highs in
the 70s and 80s. A weak cold front will approach the area late
Sat night and may bring a few showers to far western MD and
eastern WV Sat afternoon and night. Otherwise, warm and dry with
passing high clouds. The cold front will push south of the area
early on Easter Sunday bringing temps down into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Model guidance is finally starting to come into better agreement
regarding the synoptic scale pattern across the country late this
weekend into early next week. That being said, considerable
uncertainties still remain with regard to the temperature forecast
on Sunday.

Upper troughing initially located to our north will progress eastward
toward the Canadian Maritimes during the day Sunday. Meanwhile, a
shortwave trough will lift northeastward from the Southern Plains
toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley and upper ridging will remain in
place over the Southeast. Such a pattern may cause a backdoor
cold front to drop southward into the region, which casts some
uncertainty on the high temperature forecast for Sunday, with highs
potentially as cool as the 60s or as warm as 90 depending on where
the front sets up. Most of the large scale forcing for ascent with
the shortwave over the center of the country should remain off to
our west, and as a result most guidance favors dry conditions.
However, a brief afternoon shower or storm can`t be completely be
ruled out to the west of the Blue Ridge.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will eventually close off into
an upper low as it lifts northeastward toward the Great Lakes on
Monday, and then eventually into the St. Lawrence Valley on Tuesday.
Guidance is in good agreement that the best chance for a shower or
storm will be later Monday afternoon into Monday evening as the
upper trough passes off to our northwest. The system`s cold front
will move through Monday night. High pressure will build in from the
west thereafter, leading to dry condition on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures early next week are expected to run slightly above
average, with most locations seeing highs well into the 70s and lows
in the upper 40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Light and variable winds today and tonight under high pressure.
Strengthening southerly winds Fri afternoon and through Sat. No
precip is expected. Wind shift late Sat night with frontal
passage.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Sunday and Monday.
Winds are forecast to be out of the north on Sunday, and then out of
the south on Monday. Temporary drops to sub-VFR conditions may be
possible in showers or storms on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

Diminishing winds today through tonight. Winds strengthen Fri
afternoon into the weekend with SCA conditions possible.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected on Sunday and Monday. Winds should
be out of the north on Sunday, and then out of the south on
Monday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ003>006-008-
     011-503>508.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ028-030-031-
     036>040-050-051-053-055-056-501-502-505-506-526-527.
     Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ025>027-029.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...LFR/KJP
MARINE...LFR/KJP