Montpelier, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS61 KBTV 040845
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
345 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread snow will move into the region this afternoon into this
evening. The snow will persist through early Friday, with a few to
several inches of snow accumulation expected. Winds will become
gusty as well, likely producing areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Unseasonably cold weather will follow for the first half of the
weekend before moderating early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Wednesday...The forecast for widespread snow from an
incoming clipper system remains on track this morning, and no
significant changes have been made with this forecast package.
Snowfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches in the wider valleys and 3 to 8+
inches in the higher terrain will result in hazardous travel through
the near term period. Gusty winds will produce areas of blowing and
drifting snow through the entire event, as well, only adding to the
travel woes. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for entire
area except the Champlain Valley and the northern St Lawrence
Valley, starting this afternoon and running through Thursday
evening.

Low pressure currently centered north of Lake Superior will slowly
push east-southeastward today and tonight, eventually moving by to
our north on Thursday. Winds are already starting to shift to the
south this morning, and a bit of lake effect will likely shift
across southern St Lawrence County early this morning. However, the
bulk of the snow from the clipper system will not make its
appearance in our area until mid/late afternoon, first moving into
the St Lawrence Valley. The snow spreads eastward overnight, though
becoming a bit more spotty on the northern side of the Adirondacks
and into the Champlain Valley due to strong south/southwest winds
and shadowing off the higher terrain. After highs in the upper 20s
to mid 30s today, temperatures will remain fairly steady overnight,
hovering in the mid 20s to around 30F.

The clipper moves to our east Thursday afternoon/evening, shifting
winds to the west/northwest. Snow will become more focused in the
favored upslope areas of the western Adirondacks and Green
Mountains, while trending more showery in the wider valleys due to
downsloping off the higher terrain. Lapse rates will steepen as cold
air moves in behind the departing clipper, leading to some
instability during the afternoon. Hence still anticipate the
possibility of some convective showers during the afternoon, with
moderate to perhaps briefly heavy snow at times. Snow will linger
through Thursday evening. As mentioned above, snow totals in the
wider valleys will average 1 to 4 inches, with 3 to 8+ inches
elsewhere. Elevations above 2000 ft will likely see 8-10 inches,
with some spots exceeding a foot. Highs on Thursday will range from
30F to 35F.

The other concern will be gusty winds, both ahead of the clipper and
after it departs. South winds will increase through the day tonight
and continue tonight, with some lessening early Thursday as the low
traverses along the international border. These winds will turn to
the west/northwest by Thursday afternoon once the low moves to our
east, but either way, expect gusts of 20 to 30 mph, with localized
gusts up to 40 mph. SLRs will remain around 13-17:1 through much of
the event, so the snow will be somewhat light in nature. Even fairly
minimal snow accumulations combined with the gusty winds will likely
result in areas of blowing and drifting snow, heightening the
potential for hazardous travel, especially this evening`s commute as
well as both the morning and evening commutes on Thursday. If you`re
going to be traveling, please plan ahead and leave yourself plenty
of time to arrive safely at your destination.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Wednesday...Vertically stacked low pressure will be
swirling into Atlantic Canada by Thursday night, leaving behind
fairly strong west to northwesterly unblocked surface flow and heavy
upslope snow showers, particularly for western and northern slopes.
Additional snow accumulations up to 3-5 inches in the mountains with
at least another good dusting to an inch in valleys are expected.
Strong cold air advection will drop temperatures into the mid teens
to mid 20s overnight as wind gusts 20-40 knots will make conditions
feel quite a bit colder. Some mountaintops could even see wind gusts
up to 50 knots. Apparent temperatures are anticipated to fall as low
as 0-10 degrees F during the coldest part of the night, potentially
as low as -15 to -20 degrees on summits.

Upslope snow showers will finally taper off on Friday morning as
gradient winds let up and the low pressure pulls farther away.
However, conditions will still be cold and blustery on Friday with
west/northwesterly wind gusts 15-30 knots and high temperatures
struggling to hit the upper teens to mid 20s. At their warmest,
apparent temperatures will be in the single digits to mid teens
Fahrenheit, and clouds will be on a slow clearing trend throughout
the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Wednesday...Friday night will likely be the coldest
of the week with lows in the single digits to mid teens. Blustery
overnight westerly winds will plummet wind chills into the single
digits for most, below zero at higher elevations. A crossing
shortwave will bring returned chances of precipitation Friday night
into Sunday, with highest chances in northern New York. Continued
cold conditions Saturday and Saturday night with highs in the 20s
and lows in the teens to lower 20s will result in primarily snow to
start before the region begins to warm next week. Temperatures
Sunday will creep into the mid to upper 30s, allowing for some rain
to potentially mix into the wider valleys in the afternoon.

Temperatures continue to trend milder into the work week with highs
in the upper 30s to 40s for most and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
A frontal system is anticipated to slide through the forecast area
for the first half of the work week bringing widespread
precipitation. With such mild temperatures, we`ll likely see rain in
the broad valleys and snow or rain/snow in higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Primarily VFR conditions prevailing
across all terminals at this hour, with the exception of
localized IFR at KRUT/KSLK due to low clouds and lingering snow
showers. These showers will die down in the next couple hours,
and expect these two terminals to return to VFR by 10z. VFR will
continue until early afternoon, then conditions will worsen as
snow spreads from west to east, generally from 18z onward.
Ceilings will gradually lower to 2500 ft, and visibilities 2-3sm
in steady snow. All terminals affected by 02z Thu. Light winds
will trend toward S/SW by 12z Wed, then becoming increasingly
breezy through the day, with gusts of 20-30 kt at most
terminals. These winds will persist through the end of the TAF
period, along with LLWS.

Outlook...

Thursday: MVFR and IFR. Likely SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Chance SHSN, Areas BS.
Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect today, and will likely
remain so through at least Thursday night. South winds will increase
through the daylight hours today, becoming sustained at 15 to 25 kt
with gusts of 30 to 40kt by this evening. These south winds
will continue overnight tonight, with a bit of a lull possible
early Thursday morning. Winds will then switch to the
west/northwest, but remain gusty to around 30 kt thereafter.
Waves of 3 to 6 ft are expected during the periods of strongest
winds.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Friday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-011-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ029>031-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Hastings
MARINE...WFO BTV