Milton, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

673
FXUS61 KBTV 121729
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
129 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry conditions will persist through mid week before
chances of showers increase late week and especially over the
weekend. Otherwise, some breezes are expected this afternoon
and temperatures will warm to well above seasonal average by
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1227 PM EDT Monday...Temperatures are warming quickly
today and they are ahead of the typical diurnal curve. Continued
warm advection will send them well into the 70s. The eastern
slopes of the Adirondacks will make a run at 80 this afternoon
when winds shift westerly and downsloping begins. Skies will be
mostly sunny for most areas though there will be some intervals
of clouds in the Northeast Kingdom. A sprinkle cannot be ruled
out there either but any precipitation will have trouble
reaching the ground due to a significant amount of dry air in
the low levels. Overall, the forecast was in good shape so few
edits were needed.

Previous Discussion...The threat of frost will rapidly
deteriorate this morning as cloud cover increases. After 6AM,
temperatures begin to warm in earnest with highs today generally
in the low/mid 70s. Did increase winds for this afternoon based
off of mixing and projected 925mb wind speeds. Gusts will
generally be out of the south range 15 to 25 mph. High pressure
amplifies today with strong subsidence over the North Country.
Clear skies will support strong radiation inversions, but a
slight bump in dew points over will help keep tonight`s lows
warmer in 40s and low 50s. Tuesday will be somewhat interesting.
A trough will be moving along the backside of the upper ridge
and could support a few isolated thunderstorms towards the St
Lawrence Valley of NY. Temperatures will otherwise warming into
the mid/upper 70s for most spots to around 80 degrees for a few
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 AM EDT Monday...The rex block anchored across the central
US will continue to break down Tuesday night and Wednesday with deep
layer ridging gradually weakening and shifting eastward.
Nevertheless, it appears we will remain on the dry side through
Wednesday night. Global guidance, now with support from regional
guidance, is suggesting that a warm front will move from south to
north across the North Country on Wednesday but subsidence from the
upper level ridge and lack of any appreciable low level convergence
will likely cause any shower activity to our south to fall apart
prior to moving into southern Vermont. We have introduced 10-20%
PoPs for southern Vermont on the outside chance that we could see a
few showers but chances are much more likely that dry weather will
prevail. In addition, we should continue to see above normal
temperatures with highs in the 70s on Wednesday and overnight lows
in the 50s Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 334 AM EDT Monday...With a full collapse of the rex block
expected, deterministic and ensemble guidance is hinting at large
scale upper level troughing remaining across the Northeast late this
week and well into the upcoming weekend. This will likely result in
a showery regime with diurnal convection in the form of showers and
isolated thunderstorms likely on Thursday and Friday afternoon. As
we head into next weekend, there is increasing consensus within the
individual members of the GEFS, GEPS, and Ecmwf ensemble. that a
potent lee side low will form off the Rocky Mountains and track
across the western Great Lakes. While this feature will be well to
our west, the upper level flow will become increasingly conducive
for a large fetch of Gulf moisture and favorable mid-level jet
dynamics. Widespread showers, and likely some thunderstorms, seem
like a good bet for at least part of Saturday, if not all of
Saturday, but there remains considerable timing differences given
the low hasn`t formed yet. No significant weather appears likely in
the long term but it may be a good idea to hold onto your rain
jackets and umbrellas as another unsettled period of weather appears
likely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday... VFR conditions are expected for the next 24
hours. Winds will generally be westerly this afternoon, before
becoming more northwesterly this evening after the passage of a weak
cold front. BTV and PBG will be exceptions as they should switch
from southerly to northerly due to funneling up and down the
Champlain Valley. MSS will instead switch from southwesterly to
northeasterly after the frontal passage. Wind go mostly calm late in
the evening. Winds will increase during the day tomorrow and quickly
become southerly in most places. Winds will generally gust in the 10-
20 KT range this afternoon and then in the 5-15 KT range tomorrow.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Myskowski