Burlington, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

793
FXUS61 KBTV 040534
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1234 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread snow is expected tomorrow afternoon through early
Friday, with a few to several inches of accumulation is
expected. Periods of windy conditions will result in low
visibilities with blowing and drifting snow. Unseasonably cold
weather will follow for the first half of the weekend before
moderating early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1226 AM EST Wednesday...The pesky lake effect band off the
south end of Lake Champlain has finally dissipated early this
morning. However, isolated showers continue, mainly across the
Northeast Kingdom and into the southern Greens. Skies have
cleared over much of northern NY, while VT remains socked in
clouds. Do expect the clouds to decrease over VT as we head
into early Wednesday morning, while clouds increase across
northern NY in response to some lake enhanced showers. Overall
the forecast has this covered, just needed to make some
adjustments to PoPs and sky cover to match the above trends.

Previous discussion...Aside from a few narrow clusters of light
snow showers, it is generally a dry and cloudy evening across
the region. This is the calm before the storm. The upcoming
storm won`t seem like a storm if you`re looking for heavy
precipitation amounts, but it will involve some impressive
pressure gradients resulting in quite a bit of wind. Through
Wednesday night, the strongest wind will be focused up the
Champlain Valley due to a southerly direction, although winds
will become gusty first across much of northern New York and
then late in the day across the rest of Vermont. The combination
of wind and light snowfall necessitates winter weather
headlines, which begin 1 PM Wednesday. Hazardous travel possibly
will probably develop in time for the afternoon/evening commute
where we have issued Winter Weather Advisories. Snowfall
amounts in much of the region will be 2 to 6 inches through
Thursday morning. Heaviest amounts through this period are
favored across southern Rutland and Windsor counties closer to
where some frontogenetic forcing will reside, but much of the
northern mountains could see several inches of snow as well.
Where no headlines were issued, snowfall may struggle against
dry low level air to become more than a dusting or so of
snowfall through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 446 PM EST Tuesday...As the clipper system races eastward
from southwestern Quebec to northern Maine Thursday morning, we
will see a significant lull in winds as broad low pressure
reside over the North Country. With a cold pool aloft following
the low pressure system, by Thursday afternoon we should see
some steep low lapse rates develop, resulting in some
instability that helps generate ingredients favorable for snow
squalls. So while precipitation will no longer be widespread,
hazardous travel due to brief heavy snowfall rates and
associated low visibilities will continue through the day on
Thursday. Greater coverage of snow showers will develop late in
the day as winds turn westerly and increase greatly in
magnitude. At this time, there does not appear to be a sharp
boundary to focus precipitation along, but we`ll have to watch
for enhanced impacts with any linear shower development that
could impact the evening commute. Additional snowfall on
Thursday and Thursday night will largely be 1 to 4 inches, but 4
to 8 inches could be common in the western slopes of the
Adirondacks and near the Green Mountains with prolific upslope
for several hours. Very favorable conditions for heavy mountain
snow associated with moist northwesterly unblocked flow seems
likely to develop overnight Thursday, and widespread blowing
snow will be likely with strong cold air advection occurring.
Wind chills will tumble into the teens and single digits with
some gusts between 30 and 40 MPH for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 447 PM EST Tuesday...Lingering upslope showers will
continue into Friday morning in the wake of the exiting clipper
system, gradually coming to an end through the morning. Brisk
northwesterly flow will continue through the end of the week
into the weekend, especially on Friday with a tightening
pressure gradient as the surface low departs and ridging begins
shifts eastward. Friday and Saturday will be quite blustery,
with high temperatures in the teens and 20s, and wind chills in
the single digits and teens during the day with the brisk winds.
Overnight lows will also be quite cold, in the single digits
and teens Friday night. Additional snowfall will be possible
this weekend, as a shortwave moves through the region, although
there is still some uncertainty with the exact progression and
location of this feature, with the latest 12Z guidance showing
the disturbance passing to our north, so continued to utilized
the blended guidance and NBM forecast.

Heading into next week, temperatures will trend milder with
highs likely in the upper 30s and even low 40s for the start of
the work week. Another system and associated frontal boundaries
look to bring more widespread precipitation to the region. With
such mild temperatures, rainfall looks likely especially in the
broader valleys, with a rain/snow mix across the higher terrain,
although at this time range things are still quite uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Primarily VFR conditions prevailing
across all terminals at this hour, with the exception of
localized IFR at KRUT/KSLK due to low clouds and lingering snow
showers. These showers will die down in the next couple hours,
and expect these two terminals to return to VFR by 10z. VFR will
continue until early afternoon, then conditions will worsen as
snow spreads from west to east, generally from 18z onward.
Ceilings will gradually lower to 2500 ft, and visibilities 2-3sm
in steady snow. All terminals affected by 02z Thu. Light winds
will trend toward S/SW by 12z Wed, then becoming increasingly
breezy through the day, with gusts of 20-30 kt at most
terminals. These winds will persist through the end of the TAF
period, along with LLWS.

Outlook...

Thursday: MVFR and IFR. Likely SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Chance SHSN, Areas BS.
Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Friday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-011-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ029>031-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Hastings/Neiles