Brattleboro, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

259
FXUS61 KALY 170535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A chilly northwest flow will remain in place tonight into
Thursday morning. Temperatures will moderate to near normal
levels Thursday afternoon with dry conditions. Friday starts out
dry, although a warm front approaching late in the day could
bring some showers and even a few thunderstorms into Friday
night. Much warmer temperatures expected on Saturday as the warm
front lifts north of our area. Highs could reach well into the
70s across lower elevations.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Message:

- Decreasing winds overnight with clouds lingering.

Discussion:

.UPDATE...As of 1:35 AM EDT...Still a few lingering light snow
showers in the ADKs, but current radar imagery shows these
starting to diminish, and they should continue to taper off over
the next few hours. Otherwise, mainly dry across the region.
Lake effect clouds remain widespread, with a few breaks in the
valley areas. Given this and continued breezy conditions, we
bumped up temperatures a few degrees through the remainder of
the overnight period, but otherwise previous forecast remains on
track with more details in the previous discussion below...

.Previous...Winds have been decreasing over the last few hours,
with most peak gusts now below 30 mph. Expect a further
decrease in winds overnight.

Clouds should be persistent for much of the overnight period
given lowering subsidence inversion and lingering low level
moisture. Have increased cloud coverage through much of the
overnight hours, with a more gradual clearing trend developing
toward and especially after daybreak.

Even with the persistent wind, low temperatures look below
normal ranging from the mid/upper 20s in the mountains to
lower/mid 30s in the valleys. Along with NW flow, there will be
enough moisture to result in upslope snow showers persisting
into parts of the W. Adirondacks and S. Greens through at least
the first half of tonight with an additional dusting to 1" in
some spots.

On Thu, high pressure to our west will gradually build eastward
into our area during the afternoon. There will still be enough
of a pressure gradient much of the day for NW winds to gust
15-25 mph, but not as strong as Wed. Subsidence should lead to
plenty of sunshine by late morning. After a chilly start,
temperatures will moderate to reach highs in the 50s in lower
elevations with cooler 40s in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in well above normal temperatures Saturday.

- Medium chances(40-70%) for showers with a low chance(20-30%)
  for thunderstorms on Saturday north/west of Albany ahead of a
  cold front.

Discussion:

High pressure moves east across the area Thu night, so winds
will diminish. This will also lead to good radiational cooling
conditions with clear skies and light winds, as low temperatures
cool into the 20s to lower 30s.

On Fri, high pressure will quickly shifts eastward off the
coast with a warmer southerly flow developing around the
departing high. So after a chilly start to the day, temperatures
should warm into the lower/mid 60s in lower elevations. Clouds
will increase in the afternoon ahead of a warm front approaching
from the Ohio Valley region, with a chance of some light
showers developing late in the day. Most of the day looks to be
dry for much of the area though.

The aforementioned warm front will continue to lift north/east
across our area Fri night, brining additional chances for
showers and even a few thunderstorms due to the presence of some
elevated instability. Greatest probs for showers(50-70%) looks
to be over the Adirondacks where the best forcing will be, with
decreasing chances (20-40%) farther south/east. Low temperatures
look much milder with mid 40s to lower 50s.

On Sat, much of the region should get into a warm sector in
wake of the warm front passage, although the system`s cold front
will already be encroaching on the Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley
during the afternoon with clouds/showers developing. However,
farther south/east temperatures could get quite warm ahead of
the cold front with a gusty SW breeze developing. NBM probs for
highs > 70F are 70- 95% in lower elevations from around the
Hudson Valley east. There is a slight chance for some thunder
north/west of Albany as SBCAPE forecast to be in the 300-700
J/Kg range, but this is also dependent on if any sunshine can
occur since low level moisture looks limited (dewpoints low/mid
50s).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Active weather pattern next week with daily chances (15%) of
  light precipitation.

Discussion:

As the low pressure system heads east, Sunday is looking to be
a pleasant Spring day with highs in 50s and 60s as surface high
pressure builds in from the west. Winds could be breezy in the
early morning hours and early afternoon, but diminish to light
and calm for Sunday night. Depending on when the second cold
front moves through and cloud coverage, temperatures Sunday
night into Monday morning could range between 10 and 15 degrees
than currently forecasted as latest National Blend of Models
(NBM) 4.2 probabilistic data suggests temperatures could be in
the low 30s and upper 40s.

An active weather pattern continues Monday and Tuesday next
week with daily chances of light precipitation, mostly in the
form of rain as temperatures should remain above freezing.
Monday night into Tuesday is looking most favorable for
accumulating precipitation amounts of greater than 0.1 inches as
latest probabilities range between 40 and 60 percent. Finally
feeling like spring outside next week with highs in the 50s and
60s. Overnight temperatures don`t get too cold either with lows
in the upper 30s across the western Adirondacks and in the 40s
elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
In the cyclonic flow aloft with low pressure over the Canadian
Maritimes cloud cover will gradually erode this morning.  VFR
conditions will continue at KGFL/KALB/KPOU with a brief instance to
high MVFR levels possible at KALB, but overall sct-bkn clouds in the
3.5-5 kft AGL range with some mid level clouds around.  KPSF will
continue to be low VFR with some MVFR level clouds at times in the 2-
3 kft AGL range.  Drier air will build in from aloft with high
pressure moving in over the Northeast in the late morning with VFR
conditions and mostly clear/clear conditions for the afternoon into
the evening.

West/northwest winds will range from 5-15 KT with the greatest
sustained winds at KALB/KPSF, where some gusts 20-27 KT will be
possible.  West/northwest winds 8-15 KT will continue through the
day with some gusts around 25 KT at KALB/KPSF.  The winds will
decrease to l0 KT or less after 23Z/THU.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
*SPS for elevated risk of fire spread in effect for the Hudson
 Valley and Catskills Today*

Today, RH values drop as low as 20-30% this afternoon, with the
lowest RH values in the Hudson Valley. Winds will not be as
strong as the past few days, but gusts of 20-25 mph are expected
for much of the region, with some locally higher gusts to near
30 mph possible around the Capital District tomorrow afternoon.
While state partners in CT and MA have confirmed that fuels are
not yet receptive, the NYS DEC has confirmed that fuels in the
Hudson Valley and Catskills have dried out enough from the
rainfall earlier in the week to warrant and SPS for today. We
have also coordinated with BTV to determine that an SPS will not
be needed for southern VT based on the fact that this are saw
more upslope precip yesterday. Winds Thursday night should
quickly become light and variable after sunset, with RH values
recovering to 60-80% overnight.

On Friday, minimum RH values should not be as low as Thursday
with 30-45% expected. Southerly winds will be increasing during
the afternoon, with gusts of 15-25 mph developing, but the
strongest gusts may not occur until later in the day when RH
values are beginning to recover. Additionally, there could be a
few showers around Friday afternoon, especially north of I-90.
Therefore, it appears conditions will not be as conducive for
fire spread compared to Thursday.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/Main/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Main