Bennington, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

258
FXUS61 KBTV 161746
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
146 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope snow showers will continue through tonight, producing accumulating
snow in western portions of the Adirondacks and in the vicinity
of the Green Mountains. More seasonable and dry conditions will
return Thursday before another system brings more widespread
rain chances over the weekend. Mild and unsettled weather
continues early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 136 PM EDT Wednesday...No major changes to the forecast.
Snow showers continue to fall along the upslope facing mountains
in the Greens and Adirondacks. Wet-bulbing is keeping
precipitation mainly as snow north of Rutland even with
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The shortwave over Canada
will slowly track into northern New York over the next few
hours keeping shower activity present at least through this
evening in the valleys.

Previous Discussion...A primarily westerly upslope,
mainly high elevation snowfall event will continue through
tonight. Deepening, broad low pressure near the Quebec/New
Brunswick border in Canada will occlude this morning. Its upper
level circulation, gradually shifting eastward just north of our
area, will continue to bring areas of enhanced spin spiraling
into our region on its western flank. A push of colder and drier
air this morning from the west will set the stage for lower
snow levels later today as a push of deeper moisture and
blossoming of precipitation occurs. The latest observations and
model guidance suggests there may be a push of snow showers late
this morning followed by a short lull this afternoon as Froude
numbers become supercritical unblocked. Then a resurgence of
more widespread snow should develop this evening as a more
typical northwest (or at least west-northwest) upslope regime
sets up with the upper level low departing to the northeast.
This pattern supports some heavier precipitation rates for a few
hours possible farther south into the central Greens/Green
Mountain National Forest where 1 to 4 inches could accumulate
above 2500 feet. Farther north and across the Adirondacks the
previous forecast is largely unchanged with Jay Peak still
looking most primed to see a total near one foot. Despite being
in mid-April and surface temperatures near freezing, the cold
air aloft and steep lapse rates actually suggest a moderately
fluffy snow with snow ratios largely 12 to 15:1.

As moisture gets squeezed out with drying aloft, eventually the snow
growth layer will desaturate leading to precipitation ending
overnight. Have maintained slight chances of snow showers in
northeastern Vermont into the day tomorrow with lingering cyclonic
flow and shallow moisture, but no measurable snow is expected beyond
tonight. Interestingly once this system departs very dry air will
arrive under a deep layer ridge, which along with lingering
northwesterly flow will produce quite low humidity levels as skies
clear tomorrow. Superadiabatic lapse rates along with downsloping
will lead to temperatures recovering into the mid 40s to mid 50s as
wintry weather becomes just a memory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 412 AM EDT Wednesday...Ridging crests Thursday night with the
region under high pressure with clear skies and light winds. This
will be a good night for radiational cooling with temperatures
likely dipping below model means. In general, lows will be in the
lower 30s with some spots in the mid/upper 20s. Furthermore,
locations that received snowfall and maintain some snow cover will
likely dip below the first quartile values with lows around 20
degrees; coldest hollows in the Adirondacks could see the upper
teens, but will be largely dependent of how much snow falls and
extent of snow cover. Cloud cover will begin to increase near
daybreak on Friday from southwest to northeast ahead of the next
system.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 412 AM EDT Wednesday...Model guidance favors the next system to
move into the region late Friday with widespread rainfall Friday
night through Saturday morning. It should be noted that the national
blend of models is earlier with precip onset early Friday afternoon
while deterministic guidance has slowed to Friday evening/Friday
night. Its feasible that subsequent forecasts may shift towards
global guidance if this trend continues. CAMs are even later and
hang onto the dry air into early Saturday, but held off using these
solutions until we move more solidly into the mesoscale time window.
As such, current consensus shows increasing instability overnight
with ample southerly flow providing warm air advection ahead of this
system. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected over Friday
night over northern New York, spreading eastward after midnight
through daybreak Saturday. A few rumbles of thunder will be
possible. The St Lawrence Valley has the best chances of
thunderstorms with this system with MUCAPE exceeding 400J/kg
promoting more scattered coverage. South/southwest flow will help
temperatures warm to around/above 60 degrees for most locations,
potentially reaching 70 degrees towards southern Vermont and
portions of the Champlain Valley.

Pattern evolution past Saturday progs generally focus on a stubborn
Bermuda Ridge over the mid-Atlantic States with a deep moisture feed
around its western periphery pointed towards the Northeast. This
cold lead to a period of wet conditions with a quasi-stationary
boundary draped near the North Country. After a surface boundary
pushes through Saturday with drier conditions likely Sunday,
ensembles are somewhat split on where this boundary will end up, so
kept mainly 30-50% chances of showers Monday through Tuesday night.
Deterministic GFS is quite optimistic that the Bermuda Ridge will
move by midweek, but this forecaster`s experience and other guidance
like the EC suggest a slower pattern evolution with potential for
continued showers. On a positive note, temperatures shouldn`t
sharply drop, so precipitation type should be mostly rain. Highs in
the 50s to lower 60s seem reasonable given the expected longwave
setup. Lows warm from the 20s/30s Sunday night to 30s/40s early next
week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...All flight categories will be possible at
all terminals for the remainder of the day. As a shortwave
tracks from the northwest, snow showers will bring visibilities
as low as 1 1/2SM at times. Particularly at SLK/MSS/BTV. These
snow showers will be periodic and as such have used TEMPO
groups. Even through Froude numbers suggest supercritical flow,
snow showers have prevailed at BTV and should continue through
00Z, before weakening by 02Z. Ceilings will remain MVFR outside
of RUT/PBG across all sites with some improvement towards VFR
once snow showers taper off in the lower elevations by 02Z. Low-
level moisture looks to remain in the overnight period with
most sites returning to MVFR ceilings between 2000-3000 ft agl.
Snow showers will remain in the higher elevations obscuring
mountains overnight. Winds will continue to be from the
west/northwest 5-15 knots with periodic gusts to 25 knots
possible through the taf period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Danzig/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Danzig