Barre, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXUS61 KBTV 251334
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
934 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will begin the day with high pressure
briefly ridging in.  A frontal boundary will lift back north as a
warm front with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late
this afternoon into tonight. A low pressure system and a warm front
will bring periods of rain with a few thunderstorms tonight into
Saturday. A widespread wetting rain will occur with expected
rainfall amounts generally between a half an inch and an inch.
Much cooler and brisk conditions occur late Saturday into Sunday
as the upper low moves overhead bringing scattered rain and
snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 934 AM EDT Friday...Early update to show scattered
showers along a narrow corridor of northern New York and
northern Vermont that has persisted this morning. Radar trends
show it is dissipating; however, an area of showers moving
northeastward into the southern Adirondacks is a bit ahead of
schedule with light rain probably reaching Essex County, New
York and western Addison/Rutland counties within the next couple
of hours.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front will become stationary near the I-90 corridor of
upstate NY and across central New England. High pressure will
briefly ridge southward from James Bay with fair weather for
much of northern NY and upstate VT. Max temps will run near to
slightly above normal with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s in
the valleys, and 50s to lower 60s over the higher rain.

Clouds begin to thicken and lower in the mid to late pm, as the
frontal boundary begins to lift back northward as a warm front.
Low to mid level warm advection increases with some elevated
instability over the forecast area. Isolated to scattered
showers increase across central VT and norther NY in the mid pm
and expanded northward over the northeast Kingdom of VT. Some
weak elevated instability is implied on the 3-km
NAMnest/HRRR/WRF ARW. We included a slight to low chance of
thunderstorms over the St Lawrence River Valley and northern
Adirondacks late in the day.

Showers become more numerous tonight, as the isentropic lift
increases ahead of the warm front, and a wave of low pressure
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes Region. PWATs rise above
normal as the strong QG lift with the cyclone enhances the
precipitation. Showalter values fall slightly below zero, so
with the elevated instability we kept a slight to low chance of
thunderstorms and increased PoPs into the categorical range
especially after midnight. The rainfall will become moderate to
locally heavy at times. Lows due to wet bulb cooling will fall
into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...Periods of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall continue in the morning. A stratiform rain shield with
embedded with thunderstorms persists from the northern
Adirondacks/Champlain Valley eastward. A dry slot may briefly
swing into the western portion of the forecast area. The wrap
around rain showers will swing to the region in the afternoon.
Total rainfall will be generally in the half an inch to inch
range based on the NBM. South winds will shift to the southwest
and be brisk in the 10-20 mph range with some gusts 25-40 mph
over the higher terrain.

The cold front moves through in the late afternoon, as the upper
level trough will approach. Colder air will filter in from the
west. Highs will be in the 50s to mid 60s over most of the
region. Temps will fall off quickly in the afternoon from the
west to east. As the cyclone moves towards the Gulf of Maine,
mid and upper level deformation zone rain to snow showers will
continue. The snow levels will be dropping to 2-2.5 kft AGL.
Expecting some light snow accumulations over the higher terrain
of the northern Adirondacks and northern Greens possibly in the
half inch to two inch range. It will be blustery and colder with
the upper low overhead. Lows fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s
in the valleys with 20s to lower 30s over the higher terrain.

The close of the weekend will be partly to mostly cloudy and
cool with the mix of rain/snow showers lingering into the
afternoon as the cyclone moves towards Nova Scotia. It will be
blustery due to the strong sfc pressure gradient, as high
pressure will be building in from the Great Lakes Region with a
drier trend Sunday night...but chilly. Highs will be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s over the higher terrain and upper 40s to
mid 50s in the valleys. Lows will be on the cold side for late
April Sunday night with lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 333 PM EDT Thursday...Ensembles are quite bullish with
the approach and passage of a high amplitude ridge as the flow
pattern becomes unblocked and progressive. Temperatures are
projected to warm sharply Monday and Tuesday with well above
average highs favored in the mid/upper 70s. Should the axis of
the ridge passing Tuesday just east of the North Country and
warm air advection maximizes at peak daily heating, then
temperatures will exceed 75 percentile guidance approaching the
first 80s of the year for some locations in broader valleys.

Variability increases late Tuesday across model suites with blended
guidance remaining earlier Tuesday than latest deterministic trends.
Latest trends favor an evening/overnight passage of a strong frontal
system with potential for a convective line forming along the
prefrontal and frontal troughs. Should passage be closer to blended
guidance, chances for stronger convection will be possible. Leaned
the forecast more to the consensus of an overnight passage, but
maintained at least a slight chance of thunderstorms for now.
Temperature projections after the frontal passage remain mild with
guidance indicating more zonal flow aloft across Canada and moderate
amplitude ridging replacing the long wave trough by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Predominately VFR conditions are expected
at area TAF sites through this afternoon with SCT/BKN ceilings
ranging from 3.5-7 kft. MVFR ceilings are forecast to build into
the region after 06Z accompanied by showers. Winds will be from
the N/NE to the E/SE at less then 10 knots through the late
afternoon before shifting to the S/SE this evening.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night to Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX Tuesday: VFR.
Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NWS ALY
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/NWS ALY
SHORT TERM...NWS ALY
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...JMG/NWS ALY