Barre, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

274
FXUS61 KBTV 030521
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
121 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dynamic low pressure system to our west will spread
widespread, and occasionally heavy, precipitation along with areas
of strong winds tonight into Thursday. As temperatures climb,
snow will quickly become a wintry mix and then all rain by the
daytime hours for most locations. Much warmer conditions during
the afternoon will give way to a cold front, bringing
temperatures back down to more seasonable values to end the
week ahead of another wet period over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Wednesday...Winter weather and wind headlines
are unchanged as a potent warm air advection scenario unfolds
tonight through tomorrow morning.

Fcst remains in decent shape given the complexity acrs our cwa.
Winds have increased with Lake Placid gusting to 45 mph last
hour. Band of moderate precip is at our doorstep with some
embedded heavier convective elements, so a rumble or two of
thunder looks good thru 12z this morning. Greatest potential for
additional ice accumulation wl be acrs central/eastern VT where
temps are holding in the 28-32F range. Meanwhile, most obs are
at or above freezing acrs the CPV and northern NY, so not
anticipating much additional ice. Previous discussion below...

All winter weather types are expected across the region tonight
before temperatures warm well above freezing tomorrow amidst
impressive dramatic warming aloft; 850 millibar temperatures
will surge from roughly -5 Celsius to 10 Celsius within 6 hours
in much of the area (about 25 degrees Fahrenheit of warming up
to a few thousand feet above the ground). Generally as the cold
air erodes, precipitation type should trend from snow to sleet
to freezing rain and plain rain. Unusually high probabilities of
sleet as the primary weather type amongst model guidance exists
for a substantial period of time tonight. This precipitation
type is consistent with how high aloft the strong warm nose is
expected to be and the resulting large refreeze layer with our
antecedent cold air. That being said, as that refreeze layer
shrinks with continuing low level south winds, precipitation
will go over to freezing rain and rain overnight.

Given how strong the southwest jet is, even the more vulnerable
eastern mid-slope locations in the Greens should warm above
freezing within a few hours of that wintry mix period. Before
that happens though, the precipitation rates associated with
convection, and pre-dawn timing, are looking significant in
terms of frozen precipitation. Higher elevations will have a
shallower cold layer such that ice will accumulate in some of
the same areas that saw significant ice last weekend. With this
forecast, we did bump up ice accretions a bit in these areas for
this forecast although confidence in sub-warning levels is high
(under 0.5" flat ice). So while the duration of freezing rain
looks brief, potential for icy conditions is high in much of the
Winter Weather Advisory area through daybreak.

In addition to winter weather, we also have an unusually high
probability of thunderstorms through the overnight period associated
with rich moisture at the top of an elevated mixed layer several
thousand feet above the ground. The timeframe continues to look
largely in the early morning hours, roughly between 2 AM and 8
AM, and this could be overlapping with precipitation in the form
of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain as surface temperatures
remain marginally cold. Given the strong inversion, don`t be
surprised to be woken up to loud thunder as convection may be
rather widespread overnight.

After the winter weather, we will move into a period of strong
winds. Peak south winds still look to be coincident with rain
showers early in the morning, which will limit the spatial
extent of the gusts outside of the northern Champlain Valley and
northern slopes of the Adirondacks. Winds will be unusually
strong for this time of year on Lake Champlain with sustained 40
40 MPH winds possible, especially around or a bit before
daybreak. Then the potential for strong wind southwesterly wind
gusts throughout northern New York through the afternoon hours
remains high as cooler and drier air aloft moves into the
region. Mean mixed layer winds will easily be in excess of 45
MPH and upwards of 55 MPH in northwestern portions of northern
New York, especially in the late afternoon, given 60 to 65 knots
at 850 millibars and steepening lapse rates.

Afternoon deep convection remains very unlikely due to warm and
dry air aloft. So despite some steep lapse rates and warm and
humid air at the surface ahead of the cold front, any showers
that develop and shift south and east should not grow
sufficiently tall to produce lightning. Post frontal west winds
have trended a bit stronger with the latest data. However, even
in eastern slopes winds do largely taper off after 8 PM so the
end time of the wind advisory looks reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 PM EDT Wednesday...The short term begins rather seasonable
with dry conditions between weather systems this week. Friday will
feature sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 40s, with low 50s
in the valleys. Winds will generally be light with some breezy
conditions across the Northeast Kingdom. By Friday night,
temperatures will fall into the upper 20s/low-to-mid 30s, with
clouds increasing ahead of our next weather system tracking out of
the Ohio Valley.

Sandwiched between a sub-tropical high off the Carolinas, and
another high centered over the northern Plains, a stationary front
will set up from the Gulf into our region. Rounds of precipitation
over the weekend look likely as moisture and repeated lows track
northeastward. Precipitation will move in by Saturday morning as
mainly rain for most locations. Higher elevations in the Adirondacks
and along the spine of the Greens could start off as a wintry mix of
freezing rain and sleet before changing over to all rain. Little to
no snow is currently expected, but the Adirondacks and the spine of
the Greens could see a glaze of ice from freezing rain Saturday
morning. Temperatures on Saturday will rise into the mid to upper
40s which will see precipitation change completely over to rain
areawide. The Northeast Kingdom could see wintry mix conditions
return by late Saturday afternoon from potential wet-bulbing and
normal diurnal cooling towards the evening. A low-level jet looks to
accompany the moisture which could mix down to the surface gusty
winds with 30 to 40 knots winds at the top of the boundary layer.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 313 PM EDT Wednesday...A pair of blocking highs looks to keep
the remainder of the weekend and start of next week on the wet side.
Rain will continue Saturday night with some locations still holding
on to a wintry mix, especially in the Northeast Kingdom. Rain will
continue throughout the day Sunday becoming more showery by Sunday
afternoon. The uncertainty in precipitation amounts lies in the
location of where the boundary sets up. The GFS, which is running
cooler than consensus firstly, is more progressive with the system,
becoming more showery with less overall QPF. Whereas the ECMWF is
slower in its progression yielding more precipitation, and given the
typical slowing trend for these large-scale systems, this solution
looks more favorable. Temperatures on Sunday will be fairly
persistent from Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, and
lows overnight in the upper 20s to mid 30s in the valleys.

By Monday, the main weekend storm finally is able to move eastward
as steering flow aloft increases. The upper-level trough associated
with this unsettled weather will slowly begin to traverse across
Canada with high pressure building in behind across the northern
Plains. A cold front will pass through the region Monday morning
with some back-end snow showers possible as temperatures Monday
morning hover near freezing. Behind the front, temperatures look to
remain below average for the start of the work week as a broad area
of high pressure builds in across the eastern third of the country
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...A wide range of precipitation types and
associated flight categories currently across our taf sites with
a mix of VFR/MVFR. Light freezing rain continues at KMSS with on
and off snow at MPV, while other sites have limited impacts from
precip attm. However, a band of moderate to locally heavy precip
wl lift from south to north over our taf sites in the next 1 to
3 hours with vis trending toward MVFR and a mix of MVFR/IFR
cigs, especially MPV/SLK. A rumble or two of thunder is likely
given upstream lightning activity thru 12z. Precip wl fall
mostly in the form of rain, except some freezing rain/sleet
possible at EFK/MPV and MSS, before changing to all rain by 12z.
Winds continue to strengthen at 2500 to 4500 ft agl with values
in the 45 to 55 knots range, per latest TYX and CXX VAD
profiles. These winds wl result in areas of moderate turbulence
and wind shear thru this morning, with localized gusts up to 35
knots likely at BTV btwn 10z-15z. As mixing improves this aftn,
especially northern NY taf sites, expect localized gusts 35 to
45 knots at MSS/SLK and 25 to 35 knots at PBG/BTV/MPV and EFK.
The mix of MVFR/IFR should trend toward VFR by 18z as drier air
aloft mixes toward the sfc. Winds decrease after sunset with VFR
conditions prevailing.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite RA,
Slight chance FZRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-002-005.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-018>021.
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Taber