Saratoga Springs, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

932
FXUS65 KSLC 111020
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
420 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the area today will result in very
warm temperatures. A strong, but largely dry cold front will cross
the region later Saturday into Sunday, bringing a return to more
seasonal temperatures over northern Utah.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...An upper ridge is in place over
Utah this morning, its axis currently overhead. As this ridge shifts
east through the day, southwesterly flow will increase. This,
combined with a warm airmass under the ridge (H7 temperatures reach
between +7C along the Idaho border this afternoon to +12C across
central/southern Utah), will result in a continued warming trend.
Most valleys across Utah will see highs today in the upper 70s to
mid 80s, around 90 across lower Washington County and Glen Canyon.
These values reflect anomalous warmth of 15-25 degrees above normal
for this time of year. There is a good chance for temperature
records to be broken at a number of sites today.

The warmth will not last, as a cold front associated with a
splitting trough is expected to push into northern Utah late
tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon, reaching southern Utah
tomorrow night into Sunday. Temperatures across northern Utah will
cool up to around 10 degrees compared to today, while southern and
central Utah, being mostly ahead of the cold front tomorrow
afternoon, will see highs only cooling around 5 degrees or less.

South winds will increase more tomorrow ahead of the front,
strongest across west-central and southwest Utah. However, models
have continued to trend a bit weaker with the prefrontal winds, with
less than a 10% chance of reaching advisory criteria. This is due to
the parent northern branch trough pulling farther north over Idaho,
with the cold front not as strong as models had been indicating
earlier in the week. Additionally, this front continues to look
fairly dry, with little if any precipitation expected.


.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...By Sunday morning, a cooler
airmass will exist over Utah and southwest Wyoming as a broad trough
continues to scrape by the region. For the northern half of the
area, temperatures will return to right around the climatological
normal for this time of year while the southern half of Utah remains
about 5-10 degrees above average. Limited moisture will exist in the
lower levels on Sunday, bringing only a low chance (20% or less) of
light showers over the high terrain of central Utah during the
afternoon on Sunday. No significant weather impacts are expected.

The broad trough quickly departs to the east through late Sunday
with a ridge building into the region during the overnight hours
into Monday. This sets the stage for another week of well above
normal temperatures across the forecast area. Temperatures quickly
rise day by day through Tuesday across the northern area, with more
limited warming in the southern area as a potential weak low
progresses through the Southwest. Would anticipate at least a low to
medium probability (20-40% chance) of seeing convection developing
over the high terrain and adjacent valley areas during the afternoon
hours on Tuesday as this feature progresses through the area.
Thinking that the overall risk of flash flooding will be low as
moisture in the lower levels will be lacking... but low-to-mid level
flow is generally less than 20kts... so isolated cases cannot be
ruled out. Will need to monitor the threat for strong outflow winds
as well since sufficient lower level moisture will be lacking.

Moving through the remainder of the week, expect further warming on
Wednesday and Thursday... especially across the southern half of
Utah.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions prevail through the operational
period under increasing high level cloud cover. South winds will
remain in place through much of the day today, with northerly flow
attempting to regain control after 21-22Z. If/ when northerly flow
takes over, wind speeds will be under 7kts. A possible (20-30%
chance) scenario is that light and variable winds exist from 22Z to
03Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail across
the entirety of the forecast area through the next 24 hours. Gusty
southwest winds are expected today across much of the region, and
especially in southwest Wyoming. Afternoon wind gusts are expected
to peak between 20-25 kts. Otherwise, high level cloud cover will be
on the increase through the day.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Webber

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