Murray, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

845
FXUS65 KSLC 052200
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
400 PM MDT Mon May 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A cool unsettled pattern will persist into the middle
of the week as a low pressure system slowly moves through the
region. High pressure will bring a warming and drying trend for
the latter portion of the week through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Thursday)...Afternoon satellite shows a
broad area of low pressure centered atop the Four Corners region
this afternoon. As this gradually shifts east into midweek, a more
compact reinforcing shortwave will dive southward around the
western periphery of the broad low, gradually cutting off as it
does so.

Area radars this afternoon have continued to show a fairly
persistent band of stratiform rain from Southwest Utah
northeastward up along much of the I-15 corridor, which has
lingered since morning. In comparison to yesterday, this seems to
have resulted in a bit more in the way of stable conditions, and
thus less convective development has been noted thus far. That
said, mesoanalysis in addition to satellite trends show a bit more
convective development ongoing across the eastern half of the
forecast region, with an uptick in lightning also being observed
in a few spots. Like yesterday, think one or two stronger storms
will be possible, capable of gusty winds, small hail, frequent
lightning, and periods of heavy rain. Overall though, short of a
more persistent convective band setting up over a localized area
(something some CAMs have suggested, but CAMs have somewhat been
overdoing it a bit today), think the primary impacts will be to
rain sensitive areas such as slot canyons, typically dry washes,
slickrock areas, and burn scars.

Tonight on into Tuesday, the prior mentioned compact shortwave
will dig through along the UT/NV border. In addition to enhancing
overall forcing for ascent, this will also help pull some extra moisture
back into the region from the broader departing low. As a result,
precipitation chances remain elevated areawide. Like with the
broader low, areas nearer this secondary low`s circulation as it
cuts off will see the best odds. Like the prior days, anticipate a
fairly similar evolution through the day with daytime heating
leading to some pockets of convection during the afternoon hours.
Once again, expect higher threat areas to be those that would
respond quickly to heavier periods of rains. A bit of showery
activity will be maintained Tuesday night into early Wednesday,
with Wednesday seeing influences from the departing low(s) one
last day. With moisture clearing, expect isolated to scattered
convective development along/east of Utah`s high terrain.

For other impacts, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for
the southern Utah mountains above 9000 feet, and this advisory was
extended a bit further out through Tuesday morning. Overall the
forecast hasn`t changed significantly, with roughly an additional
3" to 9" or so expected, with those higher amounts particularly
expected in localized higher areas such as the higher portions of
the Tushar Range. In general, this is more likely to be impactful
to any of the more high elevation passes such as SR-12, or to
those who might be out recreating at high elevations. Some high
elevation snow showers will continue on through Tuesday and into
Wednesday, but given the lighter and more scattered nature, did
not extend the advisory this far out.

One final threat that remains worth monitoring is that of
potential downslope/canyon wind formation, primarily Tuesday
evening into early Wednesday morning. Deterministic guidance has
continued to evolve the cutoff lows in such a way that an easterly
gradient is imparted along the northern terrain, and at least some
include a bit of cold air advection as well. High resolution
models are also starting to pick up on potential for a period of
gusty winds. That said, the evolution of cutoff lows is often
precarious and lower confidence in nature, and given that some of
this scenario includes a shortwave cutting off and then interacting
with another cutoff low, confidence in
occurrence/duration/magnitude is still a bit low. As such, opted
to hold back for now on any Wind Advisory issuance to allow at
least one more set of guidance to come in.


.LONG TERM (After 00Z Thursday)...Minimal change is noted
throughout much of the long term forecast period. Following the
departure of the upper level low(s), a fairly strong ridge will
start to build into the region. This will result in a fairly
marked warming trend late week on into the weekend, with forecast
highs set to run about 10 to 15 degrees above climatological
normal. Drier and more subsident conditions are also expected in
general, though models do keep just enough moisture to trigger a
few isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms that largely remain
tied to the higher terrain. Saturday and Sunday see a bit of an
uptick in coverage of this convection as a weak mid level impulse
sneaks by beneath the ridge Saturday, and subsequently the ridge
axis begins to shift a bit east Sunday.

Ensembles continue to show favorable odds for a more active period
following the weekend, but certainty in details is low. About 15%
of members maintain a ridge (dry/mild) into midweek or so. Around
60% show a more amplified and slower moving trough
(cooler/wetter) moving through sometime early in the week. The
final 25% or so show a lower amplitude and more progressive trough
(briefly/modestly cooler and wetter) quickly shifting through
early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of
the day today, however, a reduction to CIGs at, or below, 3,000ft
AGL are anticipated early Tuesday morning as shower activity is
forecast to develop over the valley. There is about a 30-40% chance
that these MVFR CIGs do not develop, but still remain around
6,000ft or lower. Winds maintain a northerly flow through the TAF
period.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Widespread scattered showers
will continue across Utah and southwest Wyoming through the evening
and overnight hours, especially for areas near significant terrain
features (i.e. I-15 corridor). For the southern half of the area,
expect MVFR to IFR/LIFR conditions due to low CIGs. Northerly winds
are anticipated to persist across western UT through the overnight
hours, with variable/ terrain driven flows over the eastern area.
Along the Wasatch Front, expect easterly canyon winds and localized
downslope winds with peak gusts around 35-40 mph between KBTF and
KBMC from about 09-10Z through the late morning Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A large and slow moving area of low pressure will
continue to gradually shift eastward through midweek. This will
result in cooler than normal temperatures and fairly widespread
wetting rains at least into Tuesday. By Wednesday, the low and
associated moisture shift far enough east to have afternoon
precipitation favor areas along/east of Utah`s high terrain. Any
accumulation of snow with this system still appears most likely
above 9000 feet. Later in the work week on into the weekend a
stronger area of high pressure builds in, resulting in a drying
and marked warming trend. Friday on into the weekend afternoon
highs are forecast around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Low end
chances of isolated terrain initiated/tied showers remain though,
with a slight uptick noted over the weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Tuesday for UTZ125.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Warthen
AVIATION...Webber
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity