Draper, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

257
FXUS65 KSLC 070929
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
329 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Continued unsettled conditions are expected through
early next week across southern Utah, with a warming and drying
trend across northern Utah. Dry southwesterly flow will increase
the threat of critical fire weather conditions late in the week
across southwestern Utah.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Monday)...Early morning upper air and
satellite analysis indicates a weak upper level low off the
California Coast, with broad ridging over the eastern Pacific. A
trough is riding around the top of this ridge into the Gulf of
Alaska, with northwest flow shifting into the PACNW. A weak
shortwave trough continues to shift south and east across the
Great Basin and Snake River Plain.

Looking at the latest mesoanalysis, precipitable water values
have fallen from around 0.60-0.80" across southern Utah 24 hours
ago to around 0.60" or so. HREF 25th to 75th percentile SBCAPE
values are expected to range from around 300-500 J/kg or so. With
slow storm motions, expect another round of slow moving convection
this afternoon and evening. With little in the way of deep layer
shear, the most significant threat from this convection will be
isolated flash flooding particularly across the Capitol Reef
National Park and Grand Staircase areas. Elevated the flash flood
potential for these areas to "Possible" today.

Expect similar conditions with perhaps slightly less coverage
Sunday afternoon with a continued threat of isolated flash
flooding across Capitol Reef, the Grand Staircase and Glen Canyon
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Across the north, expect drying and warming conditions to be the
rule, with temperatures warming 5-8 degrees over Friday for
Saturday...and another couple degrees for Sunday.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Monday)...Relatively quiet weather is in
store for the long-term period, though residual moisture will
result in afternoon showers/thunderstorms across higher terrain
through at least Wednesday, despite high pressure overhead. On
Monday and Tuesday, these showers will be focused across the
southern mountains, though by Wednesday, a grazing shortwave
trough will expand these chances to mainly northern Utah/southwest
Wyoming, including across valley locations. PoPs will remain
fairly low through at least the rest of the work week...with
isolated afternoon showers at best. No large temperature swings
are anticipated, with temperatures hovering around 5-10 degrees
above normal.

Although forecast confidence is relatively high, there is still
some question as to how much moisture will move into northern Utah
along the shortwave, with ensemble PWATs ranging between
0.6-0.8". This will ultimately influence the spatial coverage of
any storms as well as development of any locally heavy rainfall.
Forecast confidence starts to decrease later in the work week with
the development of a longwave trough over the PacNW, resulting in
dry, southwesterly flow increasing across the area (see Fire
Weather section). However, ensemble guidance suggests this trough
remains fairly stagnant, with the main impact here in Utah being
that dry southwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light, southeasterly flow will transition to
northwesterly around 17-18z today, with VFR conditions and FEW-SCT
high clouds persisting through the valid TAF period.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Largely terrain-driven
winds can be expected today across most locations, with a slight
preference for a westerly direction, particularly across higher
elevations. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop after 20-22z across southern Utah, predominately sticking
to higher terrain. Stronger storms may be capable of producing
gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 25-35kts. VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...With a lack of a substantial system to sweep out
moisture across southern Utah, sufficient instability will exist
through at least Tuesday to bring a daily threat of thunderstorms
across southern Utah. Across northern Utah, a drying and warming
trend is expected through early next week. By Tuesday,
temperatures will average around 7 to 15 degrees above normal,
with minimum humidities near 10 to 15%.

Deep and dry southwesterly flow ahead of a slow moving upper
level system off the PACNW coast will bring the threat of critical
fire weather conditions for portions of southwestern Utah as
early as Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Cunningham

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