Plano, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

154
FXUS64 KFWD 071741
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant damaging wind event is becoming more likely Sunday
  evening and Sunday Night across North Texas as a complex of
  storms races through the region. Widespread severe weather is
  expected.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected this weekend with heat
  index values up to 105.

- Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week
  with near or below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Sunday Afternoon/

An outflow boundary made its way into North Texas earlier this
morning and should stall near the I-20 corridor this afternoon.
Diurnal destabilization will allow for some scattered showers and
storms near both the boundary and a quasi-stationary cold front
north of the Red River. There will be enough instability and deep
layer shear to promote strong to severe storms, with a hail and
wind threat. The tornado threat will remain low as the low-level
wind field are not very supportive of tornadogenesis. The caveat
to this is the lack of large-scale lift, which will limit overall
coverage. The best chances for any overnight precipitation will be
confined to near the Red River and our northeastern counties. Any
lingering activity will dissipate later Sunday morning as the
upper-level shortwave moves off to our east.

North and Central Texas will observe hot and humid conditions
today and tomorrow, with afternoon highs reaching the low-mid 90s.
60-70+ degree dewpoints will push heat index values up to around
105 both today and tomorrow. Our Heat Advisory criteria is high
temperatures of 103+ or heat indices of 105+ for two consecutive
days. There may be a few areas that reach the heat index criteria
today and/or Sunday, but it will be very spotty and isolated in
nature. As such, we will continue to forego any heat headlines.
Nonetheless, make sure to drink plenty of water, and avoid excess
time outdoors in the heat of the afternoon.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025/
/Sunday Night and Beyond/

By Sunday evening, rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place
across much of North Texas with moderately steep mid-level lapse
rates contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg along and north of the I-20
corridor. It is uncertain if more discrete activity will be able
to develop late Sunday afternoon/evening in the vicinity of any
outflow boundaries laid out by the Sunday morning activity with
the greater synoptic-scale ascent remaining northwest until later
in the evening. However, if any isolated activity can initiate
near the Red River Sunday evening, it will have the potential to
produce severe weather. High-resolution guidance is in larger
agreement that a rather substantial mesoscale convective system
will make its origin over the OK/TX Panhandles and shift southeast
through the evening. A 30-40kt low-level jet will maintain this
thunderstorm complex into North Texas generally after ~8PM and
then East Texas by early Monday morning. The environment will
support bowing segments capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
isolated hail, and even a few QLCS tornadoes. The severe threat
will likely maximize along/north of I-20 and along/west of I-35
before the complex encounters less instability and more convective
inhibition.

A remnant outflow boundary will likely remain settled over parts
of Central Texas and provide a focus for additional thunderstorms
late Monday afternoon and evening. The overall weather pattern
looks to remain quite active through the remainder of the week
with potentially another period of heavy rain and severe weather
returning by the late Tuesday-early Thursday timeframe. Make sure
you are tuned in to the forecast over the next several days as we
navigate this active, early-June pattern.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

An outflow boundary has made its way into the D10 airspace, and
is currently bisecting the DFW Metroplex. Winds behind this
boundary have shifted to the north-northeast, but will gradually
return out of the south later this afternoon. Wind speeds have
been light enough to forego a flow change at the airports. VFR and
southerly winds will then prevail through the rest of the period
with cloud heights around 4 kft. There is potential for isolated
storms late this afternoon into the overnight hours, but this
activity should remain to the north-northeast of D10 and have not
included any VCTS in the 18Z TAF. A surge in MVFR cigs will
blanket Central Texas early tomorrow morning, impacting ACT near
daybreak for a few hours until clouds lift and erode over the
morning.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  76  96  71  86 /   5  20  10  70  50
Waco                93  75  95  72  90 /   0   5   0  30  30
Paris               91  70  90  68  83 /  30  50  10  70  50
Denton              94  72  94  68  84 /  20  30  10  80  40
McKinney            93  74  94  69  84 /  20  30  10  70  50
Dallas              96  76  97  71  86 /   5  20  10  70  50
Terrell             93  74  94  70  86 /   5  30  10  60  50
Corsicana           94  76  95  73  89 /   0  10  10  40  40
Temple              95  75  97  73  92 /   0   0   0  20  20
Mineral Wells       96  73  96  69  86 /   5  20  10  70  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$