Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

350
FXUS64 KLUB 150705
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
205 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warm and mostly dry conditions continue into early next week.

 - Low chances of thunderstorms off the Caprock Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Westerly winds will gradually diminish and veer northwesterly
overnight as a cold front approaches. Outside of the far SW
Panhandle, low temperatures should remain on the mild side given the
stubborn cloud cover and remaining ahead of the front, only falling
into the 60s. The front will push through the entire area during the
day Thursday, however high-res models still show the mid-to-high
level clouds holding on for much of the morning. Some virga may
actually occur around sunrise, however lower levels look too dry for
it to reach the ground. Skies will eventually clear and winds will
shift back to SW in the afternoon. High temperatures will range from
the upper 70s in and around Muleshoe to the upper 80s off the
Caprock. Light SW winds will continue into the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Broad SW flow both aloft and at the surface will lead in part to
increasing temperatures into the weekend, generally ranging from the
mid 80s over the far SW Panhandle to the mid-to-upper 90s off the
Caprock. A deep upper low will depart eastward across the northern
Great Plains while another trough digs into the Mountain West. A
series of shortwaves within the broader flow between these features
will track across the area through the weekend. As with the previous
several forecasts, the associated QPF looks to remain completely
east of the CWA, however slight thunderstorm chances still cannot be
ruled out off the Caprock if things slightly shift between now and
then. The aforementioned trough to the west will turn into a closed
low over the Desert Southwest Monday, before it quickly departs to
the northwest. The GFS/ECMWF are several hundred miles apart with
the latter showing the associated surface low much farther south by
early Tuesday morning. Ensembles are generally somewhere in the
middle. In any case, both solutions would again tend to favor storms
remaining off to the east, with best chances off the Caprock. A more
zonal flow/capping looks to develop behind this system and as of now
Wednesday and much of next Thursday looks to be hot and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A bit more dust is moving in from southeastern New Mexico again
tonight and could result in a brief period of vsby below 6SM at
KLBB and KPVW early this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07