Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

354
FXUS64 KLUB 041729
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1229 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Severe storms and localized flash flooding possible late tonight.

 - Severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon.

 - Severe thunderstorm chances remain forecast each afternoon from
   Friday through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The surface map at 3 AM featured brisk northerlies on the heels of a
cold front pressing south toward I-10. A field of stratus along the
frontal inversion was arcing from the far southern TX Panhandle
through the Rolling Plains and this is expected to slowly expand
over the South Plains through the early morning even as surface
ridging builds south on drier northeast winds. Aloft, westerly winds
underneath a branch of a subtropical jet were host to a shortwave
trough over northeast NM complete with a line of thunderstorms, but
this activity should track to our north as steering winds turn more
southwesterly by daybreak following a H7 ridge. This process also
spurs an uptick in moist isentropic ascent around 310K over the
South Plains later this morning which may garner a few light showers
or even a brief rumble of thunder before clouds erode by late
morning. Even with clearing skies this afternoon, highs will fair
below normal as cool surface ridging lingers and winds veer ESE.

Conditions turn more interesting tonight as the aforementioned cold
front retreats north through the Permian Basin ahead of impressive
moisture advection. Although the surface warm front will remain
south of the forecast area all night, the elevated warm front will
make healthy progress north thanks to a southerly LLJ. Models are in
good agreement in this 850-800 mb warm front residing just south of
the Highway 70 corridor by 09Z, so this favors the highest PoPs
along and north of this area along an axis of stronger isentropic
lift. A few factors that could shift this corridor of highest PoPs
farther south overnight is if upslope convection later today in
eastern NM forms farther south or its outflow simply becomes more
progressive. Regardless, the environment tonight will trend
increasingly favorable for elevated hailers as MUCAPEs soar to 2500
J/kg with effective shear around 50 knots. Although storm motions
will be swift, a concern exists for some flash flooding after
midnight as storms grow upscale and move parallel to the elevated
warm front aided by a rich feed of PWATs running as high as 0.7"
above normal. This threat could easily be thwarted by stronger
outflow that serves to outpace convection thereby limiting the
potential for training cells, so we will refrain from flood
headlines at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A highly conditional potential for significant-severe thunderstorms
is forecast Thursday across portions of the CWA. At the beginning of
the period, a decaying MCS will be ongoing and is forecast to exit
into the Permian Basin during the late morning hours as it weakens,
with localized flooding remaining possible. In the mid/upper-levels,
broadly cyclonic flow will encompass most of the Lower 48, with the
base of a longwave trough pivoting over the Medicine Line/49th
parallel, and a southern-stream shortwave trough pivoting towards
the Pacific coastline. Farther south, a longitudinally-elongated,
subtropical ridge will continue to amplify over Mexico and into the
Caribbean, with its apex eclipsing the southern Great Plains. This
will cause the northern- and southern-stream jet streaks to phase
over the central U.S., with 500 mb flow intensifying to near 45 kt
beneath a 250 mb jet streak at around 70 kt. The broadly cyclonic
flow will keep the low-level jet backed throughout the day Thursday,
with substantial cloud debris in the low- and mid-levels from both
the MCS and the Pacific moisture advecting in aloft. Convective
overturning from the MCS further complicates the forecast for
Thursday afternoon and evening.

At the surface, the synoptic warm front will have transitioned into
a quasi-stationary front along the OK/KS state line, with a lee
cyclone located near the Raton Mesa. A well-defined dryline will
branch southward along the edge of the Mescalero Escarpment,
keeping the entire CWA within the moist/warm sector. The surface
pattern across the CWA is expected to be contaminated by potentially
several outflow boundaries generated from the theta perturbations
associated with the overnight MCS, but the prevailing wind will be
backed towards the southeast otherwise. Temperatures will struggle
to warm across most of the CWA Thursday, and highs were cooled
substantially from the NBM as diabatic heating should be restricted
from thick overcast atop the convectively-overturned airmass. Highs
are forecast to peak in the middle 70s across most of the CWA, with
the exception of the far southern and eastern zones. Forecast
soundings upstream of the CWA and behind the dryline indicate that
intense dry-bulbing will occur, with a plume of steep lapse rates
continuing to advect northeastward and over the CWA throughout the
afternoon and evening hours (i.e., the EML will remain very much
intact atop the overturned airmass), which will keep the dryline
sharp and well-defined to the west of the overturned airmass. PoPs
were nearly halved from the NBM initialization, and capped at 40
percent, as coverage of storms Thursday afternoon will be highly
contingent on the rate of airmass recovery and the orientation,
vertical depth, and location of the residual outflow boundaries
relative to the dryline to serve as foci for initiation.

Rapid airmass recovery will be possible Thursday, especially near
the NM state line. The extremely favorable kinematic and thermal
environments, characterized by MLCAPE/MUCAPE values near 3,000 J/kg,
and effective shear magnitudes increasing to 50 kt in the presence
of supercell-tornado hodographs, will foster the potential for the
development of significant-severe thunderstorms. The primary hazards
will be extremely large hail in excess of baseball size, damaging
downdraft gusts in excess of 70 mph, and tornadoes; and the tornado
threat will be focused in the evening hours as the low-level jet
intensifies. Torrential rainfall will accompany right-moving
supercells, posing a localized risk for flash flooding. Confidence
in the development of supercells Thursday afternoon is low. It is
possible that no storms develop at all, but this will be contingent
on the intensity and longevity of the overnight MCS. Confidence in
the storm-scale hazards is high otherwise. Storm chances will
diminish after dark from diabatic stabilization and as the low-level
jet veers southwestward. Muggy conditions will follow beneath a
clearing sky, with lows ranging from the upper 50s across the far
southwestern TX PH to the upper 60s in the Rolling Plains.

Severe storms remain forecast each afternoon from Friday through
early next week, with the subtropical ridge slowly translating
poleward Friday and orienting mid-level flow westward. Broadly
cyclonic flow will persist over the north-central U.S., while the
southern-stream trough meanders off the coast of California. Hot
temperatures are expected Friday, with highs breaching 90 degrees
across most of the CWA. The dryline is forecast to remain to the
west of the NM state line, and the veering of mid-level flow towards
the west will maintain the cross-boundary component to the shear
vectors and supercell wind profiles. The airmass will have recovered
by Friday, with much higher confidence in scattered development of
storms in the afternoon hours, posing similar hazards as listed
above for Thursday. By the weekend, a substantial shortwave trough
is forecast to dive southeastward out of central Canada while
becoming closed over the Great Lakes region, causing mid-level flow
to transition to the northwest beneath zonal 250 mb westerlies. MCS
potential exists Saturday and Sunday nights, with severe-caliber and
flash flooding hazards lasting into the overnight hours. Slightly
cooler temperatures are forecast by the beginning of next week, with
storm chances reloading as the amplification of the subtropical
ridge is dampened by a progressive flow to the north of the region.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

VFR and generally light SE winds will continue through early
Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are expected at all sites
(slightly higher chances for KLBB and KPVW) thereafter through the
end of the TAF period. Heavy rain may lead to periods of reduced
visibility and gusty/erratic winds could occur within storms.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...19