Irving, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

908
FXUS64 KFWD 160010
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
710 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms will continue through this evening.

- Scattered storms are expected late Friday afternoon and evening
  for areas near and east of I-35. Some could become severe with
  large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

- Thunderstorm chances will continue this weekend and early next
  week with some severe weather possible.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through next week, with
  daily highs largely remaining in the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Saturday Morning/

Isolated elevated showers with the occasional lightning strike
will continue to develop this evening along and east of a
dryline/cold front draped near a Hugo-Burleson-Llano line. The 00Z
FWD sounding shows cloud bases at a height of ~550mb (around 15
kft), with a substantial dry layer from this height down to the
surface. Due to this stout dry layer, the majority of
precipitation will continue to evaporate before it reaches the
surface. There is increased 0-1km MLCAPE between 1500-2500 and
mid-level lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km near and east of the
boundary, which should aid in continued convective development
through the evening hours. This activity has remained quite tame
so far, but the environment could still produce a stronger
storm or two. If a storm were to become more robust, hail and
wind gusts would be the main threats. Convective coverage will
wane with the loss of daytime heating, eventually coming to an
end just prior to midnight as the dry line/front begins to recede
back into our west and northwestern counties tonight. Overnight
into Friday morning, expect another warm start to the day, with
morning low temperatures only dropping into the mid 60s west of
the boundary to the mid 70s east. A deck of low-level stratus is
expected to move overtop the region by the early morning hours,
but will gradually lift and scatter out during the day on Friday.

Another minor disturbance will round the base of the upper low
well to our north, pushing the dryline/front east over the day
Friday. Around the time of peak heating, we`ll observe additional
storm development along the dryline, which looks to be located
near or just east of the I-35 corridor late tomorrow afternoon.
0-6km flow is a bit more orthogonal to the boundary, which would
promote an initial discrete mode, but will become more clustered
as they move off of the boundary. Latest CAM guidance forecast
soundings have abundant instability (between 3500-4000 MLCAPE),
lapse rates ~8 C/km, and deep layer shear ~50 kts. This kind of
environment would easily allow a storm to become severe, with a
main threat of large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat
is low at this time as 0-1 km SRH and shear are underwhelming.
Once again, coverage will wane over the evening hours, eventually
coming to an end around midnight as the boundary slides back west.

With North and Central Texas remaining within the warm and moist
sector as we head into the weekend, expect another warm morning on
Saturday with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1242 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025/
/Friday Night into Next Week/

Any leftover activity from Friday evening will quickly weaken and
dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. A warm and humid
airmass will be left behind in their wake, which will help to
contribute to the next round of thunderstorm activity on Saturday.
A shortwave trough will quickly eject out of the Desert Southwest
amid zonal flow aloft, racing toward the Central Plains through
Saturday afternoon and evening. The atmosphere will be quite
destabilized with surface based CAPE values upwards of 4,000-4,500
J/kg with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Strong capping
is expected initially on Saturday morning, but this will likely
erode quickly as forcing for ascent increases with the shortwave
passing by to our north. The dry line will also be in place,
serving as an additional focus for thunderstorm development
through the early to late afternoon hours on Saturday. The severe
threat appears to be greatest through this timeframe, with large
hail and damaging winds being the main threats. There is a low but
non-zero tornado threat as well which will be worth watching.
Once again, all activity will wind down through the late evening
and overnight as the shortwave departs from the region. The best
placement for the activity on Saturday will be along and east of
the I-35 corridor and upwards toward the Red River. A similar
pattern will continue through Sunday with another round of severe
weather expected across portions of North and Central Texas. The
main threats once again will be large hail and damaging winds,
with a low tornado threat too. Storm mode through the weekend will
favor discrete supercells to small clusters which will attempt to
move off of the dry line each afternoon and evening. Stay weather
aware this weekend!

A period of active weather appears to continue through the start
of next week with a couple more days of dry line activity possible
on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening. There is a bit more
uncertainty regarding this activity but the severe weather threat
looks to continue for at least a couple more days. Above normal
temperatures will also continue with highs in the 80s and 90s
through much of next week and even into next weekend.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

A surface boundary remains draped across North and Central Texas
this evening. The boundary currently bisects D10, but remains just
west of ACT. To the east of this boundary, SE winds prevail, but
northerly winds prevail to the west. Scattered showers with an
occasional lightning strike will continue to develop near the
boundary this evening, but coverage will remain spotty and mainly
east of the airports.

The boundary will linger across D10 tonight, but will eventually
begin to slide back to the west and put all D10 airports back in
SE-S flow by 06-07Z. Another nocturnal surge in MVFR stratus will
advance northward overnight, moving atop ACT at 09Z and D10
closer to 12Z. There also is a low chance that cigs could go IFR
at ACT, but this probability is currently too low to include in
the TAF. The cigs will gradually lift and scatter out, with VFR
returning around 16Z.

The boundary will once again slide east through D10 tomorrow
afternoon, putting a majority of airports into north flow through
the rest of the time period. Additional storm development is
possible along the boundary late in the afternoon, but exact
location of initial storms remains a bit uncertain (it could be
within D10 or just to the east), and is dependent on the location
of the surface boundary. For now, have introduced a VCTS between
23-01Z at the eastern 3 D10 sites and ACT, but this will need to
be looked at further.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  92  72  91  72 /   5  20  20  40  40
Waco                75  93  74  93  72 /  10  20  30  30  20
Paris               71  88  67  88  69 /  20  30  30  40  50
Denton              67  92  67  91  69 /   5  20  10  40  40
McKinney            71  91  70  89  69 /  10  20  20  40  40
Dallas              73  93  72  91  72 /   5  20  20  40  40
Terrell             73  90  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  40  40
Corsicana           76  92  75  91  73 /  10  30  30  30  30
Temple              73  96  73  95  72 /   5  20  30  30  20
Mineral Wells       66  93  67  93  69 /   5  10   5  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$