Irving, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

522
FXUS64 KFWD 232054
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
254 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and breezy south winds are forecast
  this weekend.

- Thanksgiving Day`s forecast is trending cool, dry, and breezy.

- North Texas`s first widespread freeze is becoming more likely
  Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1201 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024/
/Through Sunday Afternoon/

A pleasant and mild weekend is in store for all of North and
Central Texas after the chilly morning the region experienced
earlier today. Southeasterly to southerly winds will pick up this
afternoon, which coupled with nearly full sun will result in highs
warming into the low to mid 70s. A few cirrus clouds will pass by
overhead, with a mostly clear night expected. Lows tonight will
dip into the 50s region-wide, with perhaps a couple of locations
cooling into the upper 40s. Isolated instances of fog along river
valleys will be possible as well, which may result in reduced
visibilities near bridges over water.

Increasing surface moisture will likely bring in a stratus
intrusion early tomorrow morning near daybreak. Breezy southerly
winds and boundary layer processes will mix out these low clouds
through the late morning hours on Sunday. This will give way to
partly sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the upper 70s
and even lower 80s across portions of Central Texas. A tightening
pressure gradient will lead to breezy conditions through tomorrow
afternoon, with wind gusts approaching 25 to 30 mph at times.
Otherwise, expect rain-free conditions as we close out the
weekend.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday through Saturday/

North Central Texas faces a roller-coaster ride of day to day
temperature changes throughout the upcoming Thanksgiving week,
culminating with a sustained period of below normal conditions
that will persist through the early part of the following week.
The one constant is that the pattern (as of now) appears
precipitation free for the next 7-10 days.

Following an exceptionally warm late November day on Sunday (as
discussed above), the first of two significant cold fronts will
push southward through the region on Monday. Counties north of
I-20 will naturally experience this frontal passage first, in the
morning hours, with strong cold advection acting to limit
midday/afternoon temperature rises in these areas. The front will
take a bit longer to penetrate the Central Texas zones, and this
will allow daytime readings in the southern third of the forecast
area to climb through the 70s, into the lower 80s in the Cameron
through Centerville regions.

Cool, dry Canadian air will dominate the region Monday night, and
this will allow temperatures to dip into the mid/upper 30s across
the western/northern counties by Tuesday morning. A few of the
naturally colder spots may actually reach the freezing point by
sunrise. We`ll see scattered frost throughout this area
regardless. Lows in the 40s will dominate elsewhere. Plenty of
sunshine and a return to southerly flow by afternoon will
facilitate a late day temperature rebound into the 60s in most
areas.

The pendulum will swing powerfully back into the warm category
Wednesday, as the Southern Plains experience zonal upper level
flow, a strong surface trough in the lee of the Rockies, and hence
a healthy south to southwest (partial-downslope) wind flow during
the day. This will enable afternoon highs to vault back into the
70s and 80s across North Central Texas - some 15-20 degrees above
normal. These balmy conditions will be short-lived, however, with
another marked change evolving by Wednesday into Thanksgiving
morning.

Another pronounced cold front will push southward across the Red
River after sunset Wednesday, clearing all our North Central
Counties by daybreak Thursday. This boundary, working in tandem
with a fast moving upper level trough transiting the Plains
states, will deliver extensive cloudcover to our area Wednesday
night and much of Thursday. Coupled with gusty north winds,
the clouds and cold advection will constrain readings to the 50s
from I-20 northward, with 60s across the south. Undercut the NBM
max temperature guidance a few degrees for Thursday, but in fact,
we may need to adjust highs for Thursday downward a bit more in
future forecasts. While not bonechilling by any stretch of the
imagination, the cool conditions (especially north of I-20) will
feel noticeable on Thanksgiving, creating an inviting atmosphere
for post-feast touch football games in the backyard.

Conditions still look favorable for many of our outlying counties
west through northeast of the Metroplex to see freezing, or near
freezing, lows by Friday morning. Daytime temperatures at or
somewhat below seasonal norms will continue Friday on through the
rest of the Thanksgiving weekend, with little or no indications of
precipitation into the first portion of December.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1201 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...Medium chance for MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning.

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites through most of the
period. Generally clear skies with a few cirrus clouds and
southerly to southeasterly winds around 10-15 knots will persist
through today and into tomorrow. Ceilings will likely deteriorate
to MVFR for all D10 sites starting around 13-14z tomorrow morning
before scattering out and improving by around 17-18z. Occasionally
breezy conditions can be expected tomorrow as well with gusts
upwards of 25 knots expected through the afternoon.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  79  60  64  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                57  81  61  77  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               51  76  61  68  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              54  78  55  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            54  78  58  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              57  79  61  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             54  78  61  69  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           56  80  63  74  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              55  82  59  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       54  82  54  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$