Houston, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

362
FXUS64 KHGX 030817
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The normal high temperature for this time of the year is in the
upper 70s...temperatures when you walk out the door later this
morning will be within a couple of degrees as we`ll only bottom out
in the low to mid 70s. We`ll count this as pre-heating for what`s to
come later this afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will keep 850mb
temperatures at or above the 90th percentile and some of that
anomalously warmer air will mix down to the surface. This will lead
to widespread temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s...which means
we`re going to be in record breaking territory (see the Climate
section below for the daily records). Speaking of that, with low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s...we`ll be in record breaking
territory overnight once again for record high minimum temperatures.
A frontal boundary will still be meandering just north of Southeast
Texas both today and tomorrow, but it`ll be just close enough to
keep storm chances in for portions of the Brazos Valley and the
Piney Woods. There`s a low chance that an isolated storm or two
could become strong to severe in the afternoon to evening hours in
parts of Houston County (NOT the city). SPC`s latest day 1
outlook only has Houston County in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather today.

We`ll be keeping the windy theme in for both today and Friday as
strong LLJ`s (45-50+ kt at their peak) pass overhead. As a result, a
Wind Advisory is in effect today for southern and eastern portions
of Southeast Texas through 5pm...and you can expect another one on
Friday as well. Friday will be a bit similar, but with slightly
"cooler" temperatures (by a degree or two) and increasing rain
chances up north as the frontal boundary gets a bit more southward
movement. This is due to the advancement of an upper level trough
with an embedded upper low over in the southwestern CONUS. The
marginal risk of severe weather extends further south on Friday and
includes areas north of a Columbus-Conroe-Livingston line. The
timing for a few storms to potentially become strong to severe would
again be in the afternoon to evening hours.

The placement of the front Friday night will be the main factor in
low temperatures. In front of the...front, low temperatures will be
in the low to mid 70s. Behind the front, low temperatures will be in
the 60s...but that`s most likely to be relegated to the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods. With low temperatures in the 70s in the short
term period, you can imagine how humid it`ll be...so you wouldn`t be
entirely surprised to hear that patchy fog will be possible along
the coast overnight into the mid morning hours.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

KEY POINTS:
- Severe weather and locally heavy rainfall risks possible Saturday
with the highest probabilities north of I-10.
- Drier and cooler conditions expected early next week, following
the front.

The cold front that has been stationary during the week, will
finally make its way to southeast Texas by early Saturday morning as
the main upper trough pushes to western TX. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead and along the
boundary. Southwest flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface
will keep surging deep Gulf moisture inland. The combination of deep
moisture, decent low to mid level instability on the nose of a 40 to
50 knots LLJ, and strong bulk shear (40-50 kt), could potentially
lead to strong/organized updrafts as the boundary moves through. At
the moment, the greatest potential for strong to severe weather is
for areas north of I-10, towards Piney Woods areas. All type of
severe hazards will be possible if strong/severe storms develop
(damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes and locally heavy
rain). Latest guidance brings the front near the Brazos Valley by
early Saturday, close to the Houston metro around midday and along
the coastal zones by mid/late afternoon. Will continue to monitor
trends as global models show some lingering showers continue into
Sunday; however, most ensembles show little to no precipitation
after Saturday night. For now, will continue with rain tapering off
from west to east by Saturday night.

Behind the front, cooler conditions are expected with well below
normal high/low temperatures. 850mb temperatures drop into the
single digits degC by Sunday, suggesting surface highs in the upper
50s and 60s. Overnight lows will drop significantly into the 40s and
low 50s (coast). A drier pattern with a gradual warming trend during
the day, and cooler nights can be expected through mid-week next
week.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

MVFR conditions will continue into Thu and some locations may
lower to IFR at times during the overnight to early morning
hours. Coastal areas may have some reduced vis due to patchy fog
during the overnight to morning hours. There may be some periods
when clouds scatter out a bit during in the afternoon, however,
the low BKN/OVC ceilings should return Thu night. S-SE winds at
around 08-15 KTS expected tonight with gusts of around 20 KTS on
occasion. Winds will strengthen again to 15-22 KTS with gusts of
around 25-30 KTS Thu morning as the llvl jet strengthens again.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A long fetch of moderate to strong winds across the western Gulf is
resulting in seas around 6 to 10+ ft across the Upper TX coast.
These conditions along with moderate to strong onshore winds will
persist through early this weekend as a cold front enters the waters
on Saturday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Rain and
storms will be on the increase by Saturday along and ahead the cold
front.

Hazardous beach conditions also continue through the week with a
high rip current risk and coastal flood risk. High water levels
during times of high tide will potentially lead to minor coastal
flooding along Gulf-facing beaches. Areas more prone to be impacted
by minor flooding could be those near Highway 87/124 along the
Bolivar Peninsula, Western Galveston Island, Bluewater Highway  and
Surfside. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect.

JM

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

On Wednesday, April 2, four out of five climate sites (all except
Galveston) broke their records for daily high minimum temperature.
There is potential today for the double...both record high maximum
and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy for a few
locations. Here are today`s daily records:

Record High Maximum Temperatures:
- College Station: 90F (1939)
- Houston/Bush: 87F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 88F (2023)
- Palacios: 87F (1974)
- Galveston: 84F (1998)

Record High Minimum Temperatures:
- College Station: 72F (2014)
- Houston/Bush: 74F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 74F (2023)
- Palacios: 75F (2023)
- Galveston: 74F (2023)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  88  73  88  67 /  10  10  50  70
Houston (IAH)  90  75  87  74 /  10  10  20  30
Galveston (GLS)  80  75  80  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this afternoon
     for TXZ178-179-199-200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
     335>338-436>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...JM