Frisco, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

983
FXUS64 KFWD 180905
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
305 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With the arrival of the arctic cold front, much colder weather
  is expected through the upcoming week.

- Wind chills in the single digits to teens are expected each
  morning Sunday through Wednesday.

- Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated 3 inch
  totals, are possible across parts of Central Texas Monday night
  into Tuesday morning. Minor travel impacts are possible across
  Central Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1241 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/
/Through Saturday Night/

A shortwave trough and an attendant arctic cold front are now
making their way across North and Central Texas. Winds out ahead
of the front continue to be out of the southwest with a slight
haze in the air due to West Texas dust. Behind the front, winds
have quickly become northwesterly between 15-20 mph with a few
gusts approaching 30 mph.

Cold air advection will lead to sunrise temperatures in the 30s
for all but the Brazos Valley, where lower 40s are expected. A
slight warm-up is anticipated late tomorrow morning into the
early afternoon before a reinforcing shot of much colder air
arrives closer to sunset. Strong cold air advection will draw
temperatures into the 20s with a few teens along the Red River by
sunrise Sunday. Wind chills will largely be in the single digits
with the exception of the Brazos Valley where 10-13 degrees can be
expected. If anyone plans on heading out late tonight/early
Sunday morning, bundle up because it`s going to be cold!

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/

Bitter cold will persist through the first half of next week as a
deep longwave trough remains entrenched over North America and an
arctic airmass settles across Texas. Nighttime temperatures will
fall into the teens and 20s Sunday night through Tuesday night
with daytime highs in the 30s. It is possible a few locations fail
to climb above freezing for a couple of days, particularly along
the Red River where low to mid 30s are currently in the forecast
for max temperatures. Wind speeds should only be 5 to 10 MPH, but
will still be enough to drop minimum wind chill values in the
single digits and teens each night.

We continue to monitor the potential for winter precipitation
early in the week as a shortwave swings around the base of the
main upper trough. Cold air will not be a problem this go around;
the question then shifts to the strength of the lift and how much
moisture will be available. Fluctuations in model guidance have
been fairly minor up to this point, with the best moisture/lift
combination being over Central and Southeast Texas. A sub-freezing
column should keep all precipitation in the form of snow, with
enough moisture available to produce 1 to 2 inch accumulations
across the Central Texas counties, with isolated 3 inch amounts
possible. Higher accumulations should remain just south of the
forecast area, with trace amounts to a few tenths expected across
North Texas.

Despite the somewhat consistent operational models, there is
still some uncertainty with regard to the northward extent of
accumulating snow. We are starting to get within range of higher-
resolution guidance, some of which indicates minor accumulations
well north through both the I-20 corridor and Red River. Will need
to keep an eye on how things evolve this weekend. The good news
is that even if light accumulating snow reaches the Metroplex,
the cold, dry airmass and "dry" nature of the snow would likely
prevent any significant impacts. Areas across Central Texas will
likely experience minor travel impacts, particularly where the 2+
inch accumulations occur. After a good bit of collaborating and
grid editing, it was decided that an overall increase in forecast
snow totals across the region was necessary. The latest map for
the CWA shows a max of around 2.7 inches along our bordering
neighbors to the south, where some travel issues may occur, to a
few tenths of an inch along and north of I-20 where impacts are
unlikely. Some adjustment in either direction may be necessary in
the coming days depending on future guidance.

Timing for snow will be Monday night into Tuesday as the shortwave
drops southeastward across Texas, with all precipitation pushing
south and east into the Gulf Coast region Tuesday night. After yet
another bitter morning, a slight warm-up will occur during the day
Wednesday as the arctic high shifts to our east and return flow
develops. Temperatures will climb well into the 40s Wednesday
afternoon. Another shortwave is progged to pass overhead on
Thursday, providing more opportunities for precipitation across
the forecast area. Thursday morning will start below freezing, but
it looks like any precipitation that occurs will be of the warm
advection variety and after temperatures have climbed above 32.
Weak ridging aloft will then provide dry and warmer weather (near
normal temperatures) in time for next weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1241 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/
/06Z TAFs/

A cold front is now moving across the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex,
turning any remaining southwesterly winds to west/northwesterly.
A plume of dust from West Texas moved over the region prior to the
front`s arrival, however, most of this dust is moving east of the
TAF sites providing little to no impacts.

As we continue through the rest of the night, VFR skies with gusty
northwesterly winds will persist. High clouds AOA FL250 will
stream from west to east providing minimal impacts to regional TAF
sites.

Tomorrow, a reinforcing shot of cool air will arrive allowing for
the gusty northerly winds to continue. Similarly, high clouds
will continue throughout North and Central Texas. Winds are
expected to become less gusty as we approach sunset tomorrow,
however, the sustained wind speeds are still going to range
between 15-20 knots.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  23  35  20  34 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                50  25  38  20  37 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               45  21  34  18  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
Denton              45  16  35  13  33 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            45  20  35  16  33 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              46  24  37  21  35 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             47  22  36  18  36 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           49  25  38  21  37 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              52  23  40  16  38 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       45  19  36  16  35 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$