Fort Worth, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

672
FXUS64 KFWD 130525
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1225 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record-breaking heat is expected by midweek, with many areas
  expected to reach 100 degrees on Wednesday.

- Thunderstorm chances return this weekend, and some severe
  weather is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night through Wednesday Evening/

As a large cut-off low continues to slowly drift east towards the
Appalachians, ridging will build into the Great Plains. Large
scale subsidence aloft and the absence of any pronounced frontal
boundaries or storm systems will keep rain chances near zero
through the middle of this work week. There is one very low, but
non-zero chance (<10%) for a few light rain showers to develop
between I-20 and the Red River Tuesday morning. A few CAMs are
resolving isolated weak convection tied to convergent flow at the
exit region of a southwesterly 850 hPa jet. While the moisture
fetch for these parcel trajectories are unfavorable, low-level
convergence and PWAT between 0.7 and 0.9 inches may yield just
enough lift and moisture for a brief light shower or two to
develop. Working against this will be strong synoptic scale
subsidence associated with the ridge building in from the west,
which will work against any potential updrafts and keep our rain
chances near zero. As such, probabilities are too low to include
in the forecast itself, but still warrants addressing here in the
AFD.

Otherwise, near-record to record heat will build into central and
northern Texas this week. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will
be in the 90s, approaching 100 west of I-35/35W and south of I-20.
Upper 90s and low 100s are expected Wednesday afternoon, with the
hottest temperatures again being west of I-35/35W and south of
I-20. Winds will be out of the south/west and gusty at times, with
a few isolated wind gusts up to 30 mph possible Tuesday afternoon.
Lighter winds of 15-20 mph are expected for Wednesday afternoon.


   Location    Forecast High     Record High
  ----------  ---------------   -------------
   DFW(Tue)         94            95(1956)
   DFW(Wed)         99            95(1955)
  Waco(Tue)         96            96(1925)
  Waco(Wed)        101            96(1925)



Darrah

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1258 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025/
Update:
Record-breaking hot temperatures are expected Wednesday and
Thursday across North and Central Texas. Make sure to plan
accordingly as these will be the hottest days of the year thus
far. Make sure to remain hydrated over the coming days!

The forecast itself remains largely unchanged compared to this
morning`s forecast. Temperatures will remain fairly warm through
the end of the week. Low storm chances arrives Friday afternoon
and continue through the weekend, especially across North Texas.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Tuesday Night Onward/

A streak of above normal temperatures will be well underway as a
mid/upper ridge becomes planted over Texas and the Southern Plains
during the midweek period. Temperatures should remain mostly in
the 70s Tuesday night before climbing into the 90s and triple
digits on Wednesday. In addition to the high pressure aloft, a
weak disturbance rounding the top of the ridge will aid in the
eastward surge of the dryline Wednesday afternoon. Sunny skies,
downslope flow and dry air should push temperatures to record
values at both DFW and Waco, where forecast highs are around 100
while record highs are 95 and 96 respectively.

The ridge will shift east Wednesday night and Thursday as an
upper low over the Rockies lifts northeast through the Central
Plains. This pattern shift will force a weak cold front about
halfway into North Texas on Thursday, while shoving the dryline
east again ahead of the front. Southwest winds and more downslope
flow will push temperatures well into the 90s south of the front,
while mid and upper 80s are still expected on the north side of
the boundary. Despite the presence of the front and dryline, a
deep elevated mixed layer around 700mb will likely preclude
thunderstorm development.

A similar set-up will be in place on Friday, though the front
will have lifted north to near the Red River. In addition, a
trailing shortwave moving east across Texas may provide the added
lift necessary in eroding the cap. Isolated thunderstorms will be
the likely result Friday afternoon and evening, with development
being along and east of the dryline and along/south of the surface
front. The latest guidance pushes the dryline to near the I-35
corridor Friday afternoon, which is where convective initiation
would likely occur. Storm coverage may be low, but any storm which
forms will have a good chance of becoming severe based on the
highly sheared and unstable environment in place. Storms would
spread east of I-35 in the evening, eventually dissipating Friday
night.

The dryline will again be the focus for convective development
Saturday afternoon and evening as a second disturbance passes
overhead, with any storm which develops potentially becoming
severe. A lull in thunderstorm development may then occur Sunday
and next Monday, followed by more widespread showers and storms
next Monday night or the following Tuesday as a larger scale
trough and cold front sweep through the Southern Plains.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z Tuesday Through 12Z Wednesday/

Weak southeasterly (140-160) winds at 5 to 10 knots will veer to
become southerly/south-southwesterly (170-210) at 10-15 knots by
16Z Tuesday. Frequent wind gusts of 20-25 knots are expected
between 16Z and 22Z, and have been included in the TAFs
accordingly. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
all TAF sites for the duration of the forecast period.


Darrah

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  94  72  99  74 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                61  96  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               59  86  69  94  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              60  94  69  98  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            61  90  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              64  94  72 100  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             61  89  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           63  91  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              61  97  72 102  72 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       60  99  69 100  68 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$