El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

034
FXUS64 KEPZ 090456
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1056 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1036 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

 - Low to mid-grade monsoon conditions expected for Wednesday,
   with storms enhanced in intensity to some degree by northerly
   flow aloft and increased wind shear. Some lowland storms could
   bring gusty winds and blowing dust as low level moisture
   becomes limited.

 - Expect decreasing thunderstorm coverage Thursday into Friday,
   but storms will still attempt to drift into the lowlands in the
   evenings.

 - High temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
   through the end of the week.

 - An uptick in thunderstorm coverage is expected this weekend as
   moisture and upper level support improves.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1036 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Storm coverage turned out a little higher than expected 24 hours
ago. But northerly flow and increased bulk layer shear aided in
storm intensity as expected. Several strong wind gusts were
reported, with blowing dust east of Lordsburg later spreading to
the playa, and likely pushing south towards Highway 9. Also
impressive, but highly localized flash flooding off San Augustin
Pass in Dona Ana County, and urban flooding in parts of El Paso.

Tomorrow (Wed) looks somewhat similar, but overall PWAT values
will be down slightly, and 0-6 km wind shear a little weaker, but
still around 30 knots in the afternoon, with northerly mid-level
flow bringing pockets of cooler air aloft associated with weak
disturbances. Expect storm coverage will be down slightly, but
lowland propagation is still favored, and wider dewpoint
depressions will again support stronger downbursts and outflow.
We`ll probably have dust issues in SW New Mexico yet again.

On Thursday, the subtropical ridge will drift westward and become
elongated on an east-west axis as a shortwave trough moves across
the northern Rockies. The ridge axis will be more or less right
over us, with warmer air aloft diminishing, but not eliminating,
precip coverage. An inverted trough will be moving into NE
Mexico, with a tongue of drier, subsident air stretching from
Oklahoma into the Big Bend region Thursday morning. Best precip
chances will be over the Gila during the afternoon, dropping into
SW New Mexico in the evening.

Friday looks similar to Thursday, but the inverted trough looks to
bring increased moisture to the area Saturday as it drifts south
of the area. A weak surface trough may increase low level
convergence as well. These conditions look to persist through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Variable, and generally light winds will persist overnight as
leftover outflow boundaries work themselves out. Northeast flow
will favor thunderstorms and outflow reaching the lowlands again
on Wednesday afternoon and evening, but with a slight downtick in
thunderstorm coverage. DMN most favored for thunder, followed by
LRU, both carrying PROB30s, though with no mention of dust for the
time being.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Daily thunderstorm chances will continue, especially over the area
mountains but drier air will be filtering in through Friday.
Expect high temperatures on the lowlands to get into the upper 90s
to around 105 by Thursday which will lower RH`s into the mid
teens, but the mountains will generally remain in the 20s. Winds
will be on the light side through Thursday and a slightly breezy
day with west to northwest winds for Friday. Moisture starts to
return for the weekend with an uptick in thunderstorm chances and
RH`s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77 100  78 103 /  20  20  20  10
Sierra Blanca            67  92  66  94 /  10  10  10   0
Las Cruces               71  98  72 100 /  30  30  30  20
Alamogordo               69  97  72 100 /  20  20  20  10
Cloudcroft               53  75  54  77 /  30  60  30  30
Truth or Consequences    72  99  75 101 /  20  20  20  30
Silver City              66  93  68  95 /  40  50  30  50
Deming                   72 100  73 103 /  40  40  50  20
Lordsburg                72 101  73 101 /  40  50  50  30
West El Paso Metro       77  97  77 100 /  20  20  20  10
Dell City                70  96  70  98 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             74 100  73 101 /  10  10  10   0
Loma Linda               69  92  70  94 /  10  20  20  10
Fabens                   74  99  75 101 /  10  10  20   0
Santa Teresa             74  98  74 100 /  20  20  20  10
White Sands HQ           75  99  77 101 /  20  20  30  10
Jornada Range            70  98  72 100 /  20  30  30  20
Hatch                    71 102  73 103 /  30  40  30  30
Columbus                 74 100  76 102 /  40  30  50  20
Orogrande                71  96  71  97 /  20  30  30  10
Mayhill                  57  85  59  88 /  20  50  30  30
Mescalero                58  85  60  88 /  30  60  40  30
Timberon                 56  82  57  84 /  20  50  20  20
Winston                  61  92  63  93 /  30  50  40  50
Hillsboro                68  98  70  99 /  30  50  30  40
Spaceport                69  98  70 100 /  20  30  30  30
Lake Roberts             61  95  63  95 /  40  60  30  50
Hurley                   67  96  68  97 /  40  50  30  50
Cliff                    69 101  70 102 /  40  50  30  50
Mule Creek               66  98  68  98 /  30  40  30  40
Faywood                  69  95  70  96 /  40  50  30  50
Animas                   72 101  74 101 /  50  40  50  30
Hachita                  71  99  72 100 /  40  40  50  30
Antelope Wells           71  99  71  99 /  40  30  50  40
Cloverdale               71  95  69  94 /  50  40  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman