El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

659
FXUS64 KEPZ 071735
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1135 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Temperatures steadily climbing through the weekend, with highs
    in the lower deserts climbing to 100-105 degrees, the hottest
    days will be Saturday and Sunday.

 -  Slight cool down on Tuesday and Wednesday, back into the
    middle to upper 90s.

 -  Rain chances increase significantly for the Sacramento
    Mountains and areas east of the Rio Grande for Tuesday with a
    few lingering storms for Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Forecast period starts out with hot and dry conditions through
Monday. El Paso hit 102 on Friday and based on H85 temps, should
see about 103 for Saturday. Most areas in the lowlands will stay
just below 100 degrees. Going into Sunday, not quite so confident
in temps. H70 and H50 heights lower slightly as weak trough
approaches from the west but H85 temps are warming. Still have a
westerly wind over the area and NBM 50th percentile is 104 and it
was close Fri. Since there is a Heat Advisory out, will keep it
going and raise KELP high to 105, the lower RGV I have a much
higher confidence in getting to criteria.

Going into Monday, the trough to the west starts to get closer and
there will be a little cooling noted. GFS/EC and ensemble means
are fairly close, but the NAM is pushing moisture into the area
much quicker and in turn, brings much cooler temps. MET guidance
only going 94 for KELP while the MEX/ECX both have 102. Will keep
NBM temp of 101 going for now but this will need to be watched
since the NAM in the cooler months does do a better job with these
moisture/cooler air pushes. By Tuesday, the moisture will make it
to at least the RGV and with the upper trough over the area will
bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the Sacs with
scattered coverage to about KELP-KTCS. NBM PoPs are on the
increase from previous runs and looked reasonable, although did
drop the 80 PoPs in the mountains down slightly.There`s some decent
instability and some shear out east, may see a couple strong/severe
storms. High temperatures will drop about 5 degrees west to 10
degrees east for Tue/Wed. Trough moves into northern TX by Wed,
but some lingering moisture and low level convergence will keep
some storms around in the afternoon over the north and east.

Moisture pushes out by Thursday with a stronger ridge than this
weekend building into the area. Looks like 100+ degree temps by
Friday for El Paso and the lower RGV with upper 90s elsewhere with
continued warming going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions persist with SKC through the TAF period. Expect
southwest breezes of 10-15G18-25KT this afternoon but will
diminish to AOB 10KT after 02-03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 520 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Near-critical fire danger through the weekend with very dry and
hot conditions. Temperatures slightly above normal for early June
with midday RH 5 to 10%. 20-foot winds out of the WSW each
afternoon 5 to 10 mph, below critical thresholds and thus no fire
headlines expected. Strong mixing will lead to Excellent
ventilation rates with transport to the ENE.

Scattered thunderstorms over LNF each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday. Possible new wildfire starts due to lightning, but
forest ERCs are near normal for peak fire season. Likely
remaining dry for GNF and western NM as moisture stalls along Rio
Grande valley. Dry and warm weather Thursday into next weekend
with winds remaining light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72 105  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            65 100  63  96 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               64  99  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               64  99  62  97 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               52  78  49  74 /   0   0   0  30
Truth or Consequences    67 100  67  96 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              59  91  58  90 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   62 101  61  99 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                61  97  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       71 101  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                64 104  62  97 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             69 107  67 103 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               69  96  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   68 104  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             66  99  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           74 101  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            62 100  61  97 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    62 102  61  99 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 68 101  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                65  99  64  95 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  56  91  51  81 /   0   0   0  40
Mescalero                56  88  52  84 /   0   0   0  30
Timberon                 55  86  52  82 /   0   0   0  20
Winston                  53  91  53  87 /   0   0   0  20
Hillsboro                63  99  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                60  99  60  96 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             54  93  54  92 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   58  94  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    57  97  57  98 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  63  94  60  93 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   63  98  61  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  62  98  60  97 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           63  99  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               63  93  62  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Eastern/Central
     El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher