Denton, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

074
FXUS64 KFWD 091014
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
514 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected again today, mainly in the
  afternoon and evening. Some storms may be on the stronger side,
  with the risk for gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
  rain.

- Storm chances decrease Thursday and Friday before increasing
  again this weekend.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected through
  the start of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025/
/Through Thursday/

A weak southwest-to-northeast oriented upper trough will be the
primary weather feature of note for the next few days as it works
its way slowly southeast through the region. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be the result again both
Wednesday and Thursday, with activity focused a little farther
south and east each day. An exception may be any storms which
originate in Oklahoma and move south in the north flow aloft,
which could affect northwest portions of the CWA before
dissipating. One such storm complex is ongoing and just grazing
our western-most counties, and another will be possible Wednesday
night.

Otherwise, convection will likely develop in the mid afternoon
hours, reach peak coverage and intensity 6 to 9 PM and dissipate
by midnight. There is no one particular surface focus for
convection, so activity will likely be disorganized and initiate
on remnant outflow boundaries from Tuesday night`s storms. Weak
flow aloft will preclude any significant threat for severe
weather, though 2000-3000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE may allow
for 50+ MPH gusts in the stronger storms. The more prominent
hazard will likely be heavy rain and localized flooding.
Otherwise, temperatures should be near to slightly below normal
for the next week.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025/
/Thursday Night Onward/

By Friday, the shortwave and associated convection will be mainly
along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, though a lingering
weakness aloft may still generate a few isolated afternoon
thunderstorms. A mid latitude trough will then sweep through the
Plains over the weekend, sending a cold front into the Red River
region. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the
southward push of the front, which would have an impact on weekend
temperatures. As it stands now, showers and storms which will
likely develop along and ahead of the front (and the associated
cloud cover) would keep temperatures at least a couple degrees
below normal, even if the front stays north of the Red River. By
Monday, the weakness aloft will have shifted into West Texas while
a mid/upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley builds in from the
east. This would shift rain chances to areas mainly near and west
of I-35, while returning temperatures closer to normal values for
mid July.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

A deck of stratocumulus over Central Texas has been more
aggressive with its northerly surge than previously anticipated,
so a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs has been added to the DFW Metroplex
TAFs through 15Z. Ceilings will improve late morning into the
afternoon, followed by more scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. VCTS has been included at all TAF locations
starting 20-21Z based on recent convection-allowing model data,
but timing at any airport is too uncertain at the moment for a
TEMPO group. Storms will weaken late in the evening and should be
gone by midnight. Additional MVFR is possible mainly across
Central Texas overnight into Thursday morning, which may need to
be assessed in later forecasts.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  76  95  77  94 /  20   5  10   0   0
Waco                89  73  91  73  90 /  40  10  10   0   5
Paris               90  73  94  75  94 /  30   5  10   0   0
Denton              94  73  96  75  94 /  20   5   5   0   0
McKinney            92  75  95  76  94 /  20   5  10   0   0
Dallas              93  76  96  77  95 /  20   5  10   0   0
Terrell             91  73  94  74  94 /  30   5  20   0   0
Corsicana           92  75  94  75  94 /  40  10  20   0   5
Temple              89  73  92  72  91 /  40  10  10   0   5
Mineral Wells       94  73  95  74  94 /  20   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$