Denton, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

300
FXUS64 KFWD 111045
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny, warm, and rain-free weather will prevail through the
  weekend before low rain chances return over the latter half of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No noteworthy changes were needed through the short term period
with sunny and dry conditions forecast through Saturday.
Visibilities across Central Texas have improved overnight with the
gradual arrival of drier post-frontal air. A very pleasant end to
the week is in store with highs in the 70s and lower 80s this
afternoon.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday/

The weak frontal boundary that passed through yesterday continues
to sag slowly southward through parts of Central Texas tonight.
Pooled moisture in the vicinity of this boundary characterized by
dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s is contributing to
patchy shallow fog development in portions of Central Texas as of
midnight. However, continued weak cold/dry advection should
prevent visibility reductions from falling below 1 mile through
the morning, and no issues with dense fog are anticipated at this
time. The slightly cooler post-frontal air now in place will shave
a few degrees off of afternoon highs compared to yesterday, with
most areas ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. When combined
with low humidity, it will make for a pleasant spring day to close
out the workweek with a light northeast breeze.

Southeasterly low-level flow will resume overnight into Saturday,
leading to slightly warmer overnight lows and the return of 50s
and 60s dewpoints. A few CAMs are trying to indicate the
development of isolated showers on Saturday morning within the
warm/moist advection axis, but moisture content/depth through the
column appears woefully insufficient to support precipitation.
For this reason, we`ll maintain a rain-free forecast with PoPs of
less than 10%. The return of breezy south winds at 10-20 mph will
aid in sending highs into the upper 70s and 80s area-wide for
Saturday afternoon.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 308 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/
/Saturday Night Onward/

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern
over the latter half of the weekend, leading to mostly sunny skies
and southerly winds. On Sunday, deepening lee cyclogenesis to our
north/northwest in response to an amplifying closed low swinging
into the Central Plains will result in increased wind speeds around
15-25 mph gusting to around 35-40 mph over the afternoon. As both
upper and surface low advance east, the system`s attendant cold
front will be ushered south. Out ahead of the approaching front,
winds will gradually veer a bit more southwestward, aiding in
downslope compressional warming. This warming under full sun will
promote afternoon highs soaring into the mid 80s to mid 90s,
around 10-20 degrees above normal for this time in April. This
heat will be temporary as the aforementioned upper low flattens
the ridge as it moves into the Plains.

The cold front is expected to move through North and Central Texas
on Monday. While increased clouds will accompany the front, the
mid and low-level moisture will remain rather meager and the
better lift offset to our north/northeast. This will keep FROPA
dry as it moves through the region. The biggest changes to our
sensible weather will be the northerly wind shift and cooler
temperatures over the first half of the new work week. Expect
morning lows mainly in the 50s and afternoon highs to peak in the
70s and 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Ridging will once again build in across the central CONUS in wake of
the departing system and southerly winds return. However, this is
where guidance begins to somewhat diverge in their solutions. Over
the latter half of this next week, the overall synoptic pattern
looks to be a trough to our east and ridging to our west, putting
North and Central Texas underneath northwest flow aloft. A zippy
disturbance is progged to move through this flow just to our north
late Wednesday-Thursday, but its strength differs between the GFS
(stronger) and ECMWF (weaker). Additionally, guidance is
beginning to home in on another digging shortwave trough and front
towards the end of the week. Cluster guidance keeps a general
consensus of some precipitation Wednesday onward in portions of
North and Central Texas, but is not in agreement with regards to
more specific locations and timing. We`ll continue to monitor this
potential and refine the forecast as we get closer in time.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

VFR/SKC will prevail today with a north/northeast wind at 10 kts
or less. Winds will veer to the southeast after ~03z this evening.
Speeds will increase to near 15 kts on Saturday morning, with
daytime gusts of 20-25 kts.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  54  82  62  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                81  53  84  61  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               76  47  76  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              79  49  81  59  90 /   0   5   0   0   0
McKinney            78  49  78  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              80  54  82  63  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             78  49  79  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           80  52  81  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              83  53  86  59  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       82  51  88  59  96 /   0   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$