Brownsville, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

467
FXUS64 KBRO 111745 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

I loaded the NBM with no modification. We are in a quiet weather
pattern with high pressure over the Gulf and mid-level ridging just
upstream. A weak cold front will make its way into south Central
Texas today, but the supporting Plains air mass won`t have a strong
southward push and will shift east more than south, leaving the
boundary to stagnate and wash out without much play over deep South
Texas. Mid-level ridging will edge east and more overhead during the
short term. Overall then, we will be left with mostly clear skies,
light to moderate winds, and patchy Ranchland fog overnight. A few
extra clouds will develop in the early morning hours. High temps
will range from the 80s to near 90, except for 70s on the Island.
Low temps will range from the upper 50s to the lower or mid 60s. Rip
current risk should remain low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Mid-level ridging moving over South TX will maintain dry, tranquil
conditions for the long term. The most synoptic excitement looks to
be another approaching cold front early- to mid-week, though this
is likely to stall and wash out before reaching the BRO CWA. An
increased pressure gradient associated with this frontal approach
may elevate winds near the coast. Temperatures through the period
are expected to be near-normal for mid-April.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Sunday and Monday
afternoons. Conditions are more likely to be realized in
Northwestern portions of the CWA (Zapata, Jim Hogg) and
within/along the I-69C/E corridors, where a dry descending airmass
off the Sierra Madres drops RH values to 15-35%. 20-ft winds will
likely be the limiting factor. A thermal gradient will allow for
a >70% chance of surface winds reaching 15 mph in the
aforementioned areas, gusting to around 25 mph. This, along with
abnormally dry to severe drought conditions (D0-D2) across the
CWA, may be grounds for a Rangeland Fire Discussion issuance.
Texas A&M Forest Service`s fire danger Sunday forecast is Very
High in Zapata, Starr, Hidalgo, and Jim Hogg counties, and High in
Brooks, Kenedy, Willacy, and inland Cameron counties. A surface
high pressure behind the stalling cold front next week will shift
east mid-week and allow for return flow, increasing moisture in
the atmosphere and lower the chance for elevated fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Through 18z Saturday....The main weather concern for the terminals
during the 18z TAF cycle will be the potential for fog/mist/low
stratus developing once again tonight.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of
the day under mostly clear skies as a sfc high pressure system
remains anchored over the region. Strong radiational cooling amid
mainly clear skies and light winds will support the potential for
fog/mist development tonight. Forecast models and BUFKIT soundings
are also signaling at this potential development once again
tonight. The 08z-15z timeframe appears to the primary window for
development. Any fog/mist/low stratus that develops will have the
potential to reduce cigs/vsbys down to MVFR-LIFR levels. Flying
conditions should begin to improve around or shortly after
daybreak and return to VFR for the remainder of the day on
Saturday.

Light and variable winds this afternoon will trend towards calm
later tonight. A light southeast wind component between 5-10 kts
will develop on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Today through Saturday...High pressure will favor good marine
conditions with light to gentle breezes and low seas.

Saturday night through next Thursday...Generally favorable marine
conditions with southeast flow are expected in the long term.
Small Craft should Exercise Caution (SCEC) headlines may be
necessary Sunday and Monday as winds and seas increase in response
to a stalled frontal boundary to the north. Favorable conditions
expected Tuesday until mid-late week. Lower confidence in SCEC
conditions at the tail end of the period as yet another stalling
boundary off Deep South Texas waters increases winds and seas with
a tightened pressure gradient. Less than 5% chance of
precipitation is expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             61  84  66  84 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               58  86  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 62  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         60  91  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      64  76  68  78 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     60  81  65  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma