Austin, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

049
FXUS64 KEWX 111124
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
624 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Key Messages:

- 10% chance of isolated showers late this afternoon and early
  evening across the western Hill Country and southern Edwards
  Plateau

- Near-critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon across the
  Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and portions of the
  Hill Country

At midnight a weak cold front was located across the northern Hill
Country. Areas of fog will be possible early this morning across the
Coastal Plains, south of the front. The weak front will gradually
slide south into the region today, with a farther southward push
through eastern areas. By late afternoon the front will be located
roughly from the Coastal Plains to near San Antonio and northwest
into the southern Edwards Plateau. Behind the front, drier air will
filter into the area. A thin cumulus field may develop near and
southwest of the front this afternoon, and in fact a few CAMs are
now generating isolated showers late this afternoon and early
evening across the western Hill Country and southern Edwards, mainly
around Edwards and Kerr counties, where just enough low level
moisture and convergence resides. We have included a very low chance
(10%) of showers across this area late afternoon and evening.

The weak front is forecast to wash out Saturday with a breezy
southerly wind developing, especially west of the I-35 corridor. Low
afternoon reactive humidity values 15-25%, winds gusting to 20-30
mph, and dry to extremely dry fuels per the Texas A&M Forest Service
will combine to produce near-critical fire weather conditions across
Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and portions of the
Hill Country.

High temperatures today and Saturday are forecast to be slightly
cooler than yesterday, but still above normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A persistent mid-level ridging pattern will keep dry weather around
next week. In fact, GFS and ECMWF time-height plots suggest that
relative humidity values at 700mb aloft might never reach 50 percent
throughout all of next week, which is a testament to the lack of
good deep-layer moisture advection into our area. Southerly flow
ahead of trough well to our north will bring a low-level thermal
ridge across South-Central Texas to start the week. Highs above 90F
are likely across the entirety of South Central Texas, with highs
above 100F in the forecast for parts of the Rio Grande Plains.
Models remain in good consensus that a decent meridional pressure
gradient Sunday will result in breezy conditions with peak gusts
around 30 to 35 mph. Breezy winds could continue into Monday, though
Sunday looks to be the breeziest of the days in the forecast period.
This could lead to some fire weather concerns continuing into
Monday, especially for areas along the Rio Grande which have not
received much rain lately.

A weak cold front then pushes through our area north to south Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Model cross sections indicate this will
be a shallow front without much support aloft to help generate
rainfall. Northerly winds behind the front will help bring slightly
cooler weather for Tuesday with highs decreasing about 5 to 10
degrees relative to Monday with possibly a more noticeable drop in
the Rio Grande Plains. The front weakens and rebounds northward as
southerly flow returns Wednesday, resulting in a warming trend with
the warmer pre-frontal temperatures returning by as soon as Thursday.
The front and the subtropical jet should help bring some
intermittent clouds throughout next week, mostly in the form of high
cirrus, but otherwise models have soured on the prospects for rain
within the long-term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period for most locations. The
exception is ongoing low stratus and fog across the Coastal Plains,
producing IFR to LIFR conditions. This should gradually dissipate
13Z-15Z. There is also a very low chance (10%) of isolated SHRA/-TSRA
between 20Z-02Z across the southern Edwards Plateau, near ECU-ERV,
along a weak frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  88  55  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  56  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            86  57  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  64  95  64 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        86  56  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             91  57  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        88  55  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  54  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  60  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           91  60  90  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...76