Arlington, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

952
FXUS64 KFWD 150607
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
107 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance (20-30%) for isolated severe thunderstorms
  Thursday and Friday evenings for portions of central and
  northeast Texas.

- Thunderstorm chances continue this weekend with some potential
  for severe weather.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through next week, with
  daily highs largely remaining in the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday through Friday Evening/


...Thursday and Thursday Night...

Current water vapor imagery continues to show a ridge positioned
over the southern Great Plains with troughing over the western
CONUS. Over the day on Thursday, the ridge overhead will slowly
shift east into the southern Mississippi River Valley. The trough
out west will take on a positive tilt, with a shortwave first
ejecting into the central/northern Great Plains before the primary
trough axis pivots into the High Plains. This will result in the
primary surface low developing far to the north, somewhere in the
central Great Plains/upper Midwest. Extending south-southwest from
the low center, a cold front will surge south towards our area,
with the front reaching the Red River by late Thursday morning. In
the absence of strong synoptic forcing, the cold front is expected
to slow down, and ultimately stall out from southeastern Oklahoma
into central Texas sometime Thursday afternoon.

While the front slowly pushes southeast Thursday morning and
afternoon, a weak upper-level disturbance is expected to give the
region a glancing blow to the north, providing enough forcing for
ascent for scattered clouds and isolated rain showers to develop.
Forecast soundings show very little moisture between the boundary
layer and mid-levels (around 600 hPa). As such, rain for the most
part should evaporate before hitting the ground. The only area
with a tangible risk to see surface precipitation with this
activity will be the Texoma area closer to the upper-level
disturbance. Here, a shower or two might be strong enough to get
precip to the surface, resulting in a very low chance (15%) for
rain during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

Thursday evening during peak heating, a stout EML will slowly
erode over the stalled frontal boundary. Forecast soundings show
CIN may drop below 50 J/kg along and just ahead of the boundary in
northeast Texas. This may be sufficient enough to get a storm or
two to develop (15-20% chance). The airmass east of the boundary
will be very unstable, with CAPE on the order of 3500-4500 J/kg.
Flow aloft will also be strengthening as the upper-level trough
approaches the region from the west, resulting in deep layer shear
of 55-70 knots. This environment will be favorable for severe
weather should storms develop, with large hail and damaging winds
being the primary hazard. Though a tornado can`t be ruled out, the
potential is very low given weak low-level shear (0-1km SRH less
than 75 m2/s2), veered surface winds, and storm motion relatively
parallel to the boundary.

Pulling all of this together, the most likely scenario would be
one or two discrete severe thunderstorms developing somewhere
along the front northeast of the DFW Metroplex sometime between
4PM and 7PM with the primary hazard being large hail, and a
secondary hazard of damaging winds. These storms would quickly
dissipate after sunset before being able to grow upscale, likely
by 10 PM.


...Friday Morning into Friday Evening...

By Friday morning, the stalled cold front will begin to behave
more like a dryline, as the boundary will retrograde west of the
I-35/35W corridor by Friday morning. Moving forward into Friday
afternoon, the dryline will mix east, with a NNE-SSW configuration
roughly from southeast Oklahoma into the Texas Hill Country. By
peak heating, the dryline should be further west than what it was
on Thursday, likely bisecting the DFW metroplex. Flow aloft will
be more zonal, as the trough axis by this time should be
positioned directly over the southern Great Plains. Ahead of the
dryline, rich low-level moisture return will bring surface dew
points into the mid-70s. This coupled with 700-500 hPa lapse rates
around 8 C/km will result in extreme surface based instability,
with CAPE in the 4500-6000 J/kg range just east of the dryline.
NAM and RAP models both show the cap nearly, if not completely
eroding by Friday evening, presenting a scenario favorable for
isolated severe thunderstorms to develop along the dryline
sometime Friday evening. The primary hazards will be large hail
and damaging winds, with the most likely region to see storms
along and east of the I-35 corridor (including Waco and DFW).
Analogous to Thursday, low-level wind profiles appear to be
unfavorable for tornadoes on Friday.


Darrah

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1242 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025/
Update:

Dryline activity will begin to ramp up as early as Friday
afternoon and evening, although overall coverage of showers and
thunderstorms appears lowest on this day. Regardless, slightly
increased shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected
starting at the end of this week, picking up through the weekend
on both Saturday and Sunday. Strong capping is likely to limit any
activity to a brief window through the afternoon and evening each
day over the weekend as well. The best forcing for ascent still
appears to be over the weekend, with conditional potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threat for any
thunderstorms that manage to develop will be large hail and
damaging winds, with a low but non-zero tornado threat on
Saturday. This slightly more active weather period may continue
into the start of next week, and will be worth watching.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Night through Tuesday/

A dryline should be positioned across our western counties during
the day Friday as a shortwave trough spreads out of the Central
Plains into the Midwest. A trailing cold front will extend
southwestward and should be draped near the Red River during this
time, but will likely be ill-defined and may not serve as much of
a focus for convective development. Weak synoptic scale ascent is
likely to be present, but persistent southwest winds aloft will
advect a deep elevated mixed layer eastward resulting in strong
capping across the region. It`s a little uncertain if any
convection will develop during peak heating but there is at least
a some model signal indicating the potential. We`ll keep PoPs at
15-20% Friday afternoon with any storms developing likely becoming
severe in the strongly unstable airmass.

Convection is likely to be a little more widespread on Saturday as
an embedded shortwave ejects out of the Desert Southwest and into
the Southern Plains. With the dryline expected to make a push a
little farther eastward, modest forcing for ascent and strong
afternoon heating should weaken the cap sufficiently for scattered
severe thunderstorms to develop. Uniformly weak low level wind
fields and relatively high LCLs suggest a low tornado threat, but
strong deep layer shear, steep lapse rates, and strong instability
indicate the potential for large hail and a few instances of
damaging winds will be possible. Coverage of afternoon/evening
storms is expected to be 30-40%.

A similar setup is expected on Sunday although weaker synoptic
forcing may keep convection tied closer to the dryline itself and
generally north of I-20 through the late afternoon. A few severe
storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening with PoPs 20-30%. Continued troughing to our
west into early next week will likely keep the dryline active with
periodic severe storms developing during peak heating and
continuing into the late evening hours. We`ll maintain PoPs each
afternoon through Tuesday to account for this activity.

Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal
through the weekend with afternoon highs in the lower 90s and
overnight lows in the low 70s.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z Thursday through 12Z Friday/

Southerly surface winds (170-200) of around 10 knots will veer to
north-northwesterly (320-360) between 13 and 17Z for DFW
Metroplex TAF sites with the passage of a cold front. Though
southerly flow is expected to return by 22Z, virga/light rain near
the Red River may result in brief periods of light
north/northeasterly winds (350-040) embedded in large scale
southerly flow through 02Z Friday. Uncertainty is high with
location and timing of any potential wind shift in this time
frame, so have kept out of TAFs for now. A stray severe
thunderstorm may also develop in northeast Texas after 21Z, but
this activity should remain northeast of DFW Metroplex TAF sites.

Darrah

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  92  73  91  72 /   5  30  20  30  30
Waco                75  93  72  92  73 /   5  30  10  30  20
Paris               73  87  69  84  69 /  20  30  20  30  40
Denton              71  92  68  89  69 /   5  20  10  30  30
McKinney            73  90  70  88  71 /  10  30  20  30  30
Dallas              75  92  74  90  73 /   5  30  20  30  30
Terrell             75  89  72  89  71 /  10  30  20  30  30
Corsicana           76  92  75  92  74 /  10  30  10  20  20
Temple              74  93  72  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  20
Mineral Wells       69  94  69  93  70 /   5  10  10  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$