Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

464
FXUS64 KAMA 230842
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
242 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 218 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

-Mild, more springlike weather conditions with near to above
 normal high temperatures are forecast through Sunday.

-A series of cold fronts drop through the region starting Monday,
 which should cool temperatures down to average or below average
 through much of the week.

-Low chances (10-20 percent) for light rain and/or light snow mix
 to occur in the middle of the week and possibly Thanksgiving
 morning.

-Morning winds chills for Friday into next weekend could dip to 20
 degrees or or into the teens, with a range of 20-50 percent
 chance of this occurring across the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 218 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

A beautiful weekend is in store for the Panhandles as southerly
flow, plenty of sunshine and the influence of upper ridging will
bring almost springlike weather. Highs will continue to gradually
increase through the weekend with all sites ranging from the mid to
upper 60s and lower 70s today. Tomorrow will be a tad warmer as the
low level temperatures increase. Highs are forecast to be around the
lower 70s in the north to the upper 70s/near 80 in the southeast.
There remains a low chance(20-40%) that the southeast parts of the
forecast area reach above 80 degrees on Sunday. The better
probabilities remain just to the south of the forecast area, where
probabilities are closer to 60%.

Culin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

The upper ridge axis pushes further to the east as we start the new
work week and the ridge broadens over our region, becoming a bit
more zonal in nature. A front will drop south through the area
Sunday, bringing in cooler air Sunday night and into Monday, with
highs being about 20 degrees cooler on Monday. Surface high pressure
moves in quickly behind this front and return flow resumes for mid-
week, bringing back more mild temperatures.

The next system to monitor comes around mid-week and Thanksgiving
time period. An upper trough will swing across the Plains just to
our north, bringing another front down toward our region. Unlike
the first front, this one seems to continue to have some moisture
associated with it. While models continue to suggest the northern
Panhandles could see some influence from this during the Wednesday
afternoon through Thanksgiving morning time period, models
tonight have backed off on precipitation chances and it appears
this might be more of a glancing blow than anything else. The
Oklahoma Panhandle would have the best chance to see any rain or
rain/snow combo, but even then chances have decreased to around
20% or less. Still, given the impacts of the holiday and travel,
will continue to monitor to see if the weakening trend continues.

The upper trough will be east of the region by Thursday afternoon.
Even if precipitation is not in the cards with this system, it looks
like we do have a return to more seasonal weather. Highs are
forecast to remain the 50s through the end of the week and overnight
lows should give us solid freezes each night, with some locations in
the northern Panhandles dipping close to the low 20s. Wind chills
Friday morning and into the weekend could be quite chilly,
especially for those who might be tackling shopping sales early
Friday morning. Forecast values around 20 degrees looks possible,
especially in the northern Panhandles where a 30-50 percent chance
of this looks to occur. Chilly conditions Friday morning are
possible still across the rest of the Panhandles with even a 15-20
percent chance of this in southeast Texas Panhandle. Wind chills
could be even lower during the weekend, with teens even possible
in the northwest.

Culin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

All terminals are expected to stay at VFR levels for the next 24
hours with model agreement continuing to see dry weather across
the Panhandles. Winds are expected to rather light at the surface
for the overnight period but look for KAMA to see speeding
increase heading into tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                72  45  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  66  35  69  29 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              70  39  70  28 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  71  46  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              72  42  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  73  44  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               69  45  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 70  36  72  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  68  35  71  29 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                75  43  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                67  41  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   70  47  75  34 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                67  41  77  37 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              70  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...11