Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

145
FXUS64 KAMA 111110
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
610 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

- Above average temperatures expected to continue, especially this
  coming weekend where the entire area will likely see highs in
  the 90s.

- Elevated to critical fire weather may be present Saturday
  afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

The dry trend looks to continue for the Panhandles with present
model agreement not seeing the ridge going anywhere for the end of
the work week. Warmer temperatures will also follow for today with
most locations returning to the 70s to low 80s this afternoon.
Moving into this weekend this dry and warm pattern looks to its
hits peak with latest trends continuing to see afternoon high
temperatures near or in the 90s for Saturday. However, as a trade
off for the warmer temperatures and the continue dry condition,
the potential for critical fire weather will look to return that
afternoon. At this time, chances are heavily relying on the
presence of a lee-side surface low that day, which would set up
our typical down-sloping event from the southern Rockies. This set
up will aid in keeping very low RH across most of the Western
Panhandles with the area seeing minimum RH values below 10%.
However, latest from the CAMS have suggested that the lee-side low
may detach from the Front Ranger sooner thanks to the expected
northerly system pushing in Sunday. This detachment, would see the
winds much weaker in the west (speeds peaking at 15 to 25 mph),
where latest is suggested the drier fuels are still present, but
keep speeds up in the east (speeds peaking around 20 to 30 mph)
where fuel conditions are more green. Given this possibility has
push conditions more towards a marginal set up for the west and
the potential green that has been occurring from last weeks
precipitation, have chosen to hold off any products for now.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Sunday continues to trend as the end of our stagnate period with
model agreement seeing a northerly system brush the Northern
Panhandles that afternoon. With this passage expect for an upper-
level jet to move over the area ahead of the associated cold
front. At this time, latest trends have seen 500mb winds peak at
around 50kt, which, given the dry conditions, could easily bleed
down to create gusty conditions alongside potential critical fire
weather for the Western Panhandles. However, recent runs have also
seen a weak disturbance, in the form of a surface low, move
across at the low-levels that may lead to difficulty in seeing
these winds fully realized in the west for Sunday. Added to this,
latest model runs have continued to trend for the cold frontal
passage to arrive much earlier than originally expected, which
would also kill winds and above normal temperatures for the day.
If current trends continue, then the window for any critical fire
weather may be only during the late morning with some elevated
condition following that afternoon. Of course, these conditions
will also have to rely on present fuel status which may or may not
be primed after the last weeks precipitation event and ongoing
green up.

Regardless, the presence of this northerly system is expected to
lead to the break down of the the upper-level ridge, which with
the aid of the cold front, will see temperatures drop down into
the 60s to low 70s for Monday. Beyond this break down, models do
hint at a more southerly system building off the west coast and
stalling, which could lead to flow shifting to more northwesterly
direction and inviting chances of active weather in the Panhandle
for all of next week. However, any current chances of
precipitation are only sitting at around 10 to 20% for each
afternoon. For now, look for slightly cooler temperatures to
follow for Monday and Tuesday with most places looking to be in
the 60s to 70s, while Wednesday will see our first chances of the
80s returning.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A slight increase in surface winds is likely this afternoon which
could see terminal gust to around 25kt. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected to hold over the Panhandles allowing all terminals
to stay VFR for the present package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                79  51  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  80  50  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              80  49  95  54 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  83  53  99  59 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              82  51  96  54 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  79  49  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               77  50  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 80  46  95  49 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  80  49  95  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                80  49  95  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                78  52  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   77  51  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                78  49  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              78  49  90  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11