Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

455
FXUS64 KAMA 180921
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
321 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the northwestern
  Panhandles with snowfall upwards of 1 to 2 inches forecast for
  this area. Lesser amounts of snowfall are expected across much
  of the area.

- A prolonged stretch of temperatures remaining below freezing
  will begin today and will last into early next week. Very cold
  overnight lows are likely and wind chill values below zero are
  forecast each morning through Tuesday.

- Additional snowfall will be possible on Monday but confidence in
  snowfall amounts remains low at this point. The northeastern
  Panhandles have the higher potential for accumulating snow at
  this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Early this morning, light snow has formed across east/southeastern
Colorado and is starting to extend as far east as western KS. Snow
is currently being observed at La Junta and Lamar up in Colorado
and looks to be at least a few hours away from even reaching the
northern Panhandles. Temperatures are slowly cooling across the
north as colder air begins to move over the area today and will
last through early next week.

The base of a H500 longwave trough is forecast to move across the
CWA today. The lift provided by this feature will aid in
developing light snow across the Panhandles later this morning and
will move south throughout the day. Not much has changed with the
model guidance over the last 12 to 24 hours, the better mesoscale
lift remains off to the west of the Panhandles and may have even
shifted a bit further west. For locations close to the New Mexico
state line across the northwestern Panhandles, the potential for
an inch or two of snow remains higher. Most locations across the
Panhandles will likely see at least light snowfall today, but the
majority of the area should have totals less than an inch. Terrain
effects from the Canadian River Valley may lead to some localized
higher totals along I-40 west of Amarillo but confidence in that
scenario panning out remains low at this point, especially since
drier air will be starting to move in in the mid levels as snow
moves further south. Another area of uncertainty is southern Deaf
Smith county, where model guidance suggests an area of H700
vertical velocity may be in place over the area which would allow
for slightly higher snowfall rates for a brief period before snow
comes to an end this evening. With both of these scenarios being
low confidence, no changes to the Winter Weather Advisory will be
made at this point. Snow will dissipate by late this evening
across the south.

In addition to the light snowfall today, the first day of below
freezing temperatures is very likely for most locations. The
colder air mass will continue to move in over the Panhandles
tonight and temperatures will drop into the single digits across
the north with lower teens further south. Even though winds will
only be around 10 mph or less, with temperatures being as cold as
they are forecast to be, wind chill temperatures will drop below
zero across the northern Panhandles. A Cold Weather Advisory may
be needed for the far northwestern Panhandles if wind chills drop
any further. Highs for Sunday will be very comparable to today,
reaching the 20s across the region. Another cold night is Sunday
night into Monday morning and additional cold weather highlights
may be needed as wind chills will once again drop below zero
Monday morning.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Large scale troughing will remain over much of the CONUS on Monday
and Tuesday. This will keep much of the United States under the
influence of an arctic air mass which will lead to temperatures
well below average for most of the country. For the Panhandles,
this cold air mass will remain in place through at least Tuesday
before the trough shifts off to the east. A positively tilted
trough will be embedded in the longwave trough and will move
towards the Southern High Plains on Monday. The lift provided by
the trough should be able to develop light snow showers across the
High Plains. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this
system, especially with moisture quality and snowfall amounts.
Even with that being said, the northeast has consistently had the
higher potential for snow with this system and the 18/01z NBM
probabilities for 1 inch or more of snow have increased upwards of
50 to 60 percent for the far northeastern Panhandles. Will keep an
eye on this potential as we go through the weekend and there
should be a more consistent signal from the models as we get
closer to Monday.

Regarding the arctic air mass, the coldest temperatures of the
season thus far are very, very likely on Monday and Tuesday. A
secondary push of even colder air is forecast out ahead of the
positively tilted trough with H850 temperatures dropping down
below minus 15 Celsius by Tuesday morning. For both Monday and
Tuesday mornings, ambient and wind chill temperatures will be
dangerous for those outside for extended periods of time. Tuesday
morning will be the coldest morning, with wind chills dipping
below zero for most locations and in the double digits below zero
for the northern half of the CWA. Would not be surprised if Cold
Weather Advisories will be needed early next week.

The longwave trough moves off to the east which makes way for west
to northwest flow to prevail on Wednesday and temperatures should
warm up above freezing for the entire area on Tuesday or
Wednesday. This subtle warm up may be short lived, as model
guidance suggests another trough may bring another push of colder
air back to the Panhandles on Thursday, but guidance diverges on
how far south that trough will dig to end the next work week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 955 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through about 15-20z as we await the
onset of some light snow. Thereafter MVFR/IFR conditions, mainly
at KGUY and KDHT are expected. Right now prob30s set up for snow
from 15-02z. Better chances for KAMA will be after the 18z time
period, but right now not enough confidence for a PROB30. Winds
out of the north northeast around 10-15kts for most of the TAF
period.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                29  10  27  11 /  30  30   0  10
Beaver OK                  27   7  26  10 /  40   0   0  10
Boise City OK              24   1  25   7 /  70   0   0  10
Borger TX                  30  11  29  13 /  30  10   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              29  10  29  13 /  40  20   0  10
Canyon TX                  30  11  28  12 /  20  30   0  10
Clarendon TX               33  11  28  12 /  20  20   0  10
Dalhart TX                 26   2  26   8 /  50  10   0  10
Guymon OK                  25   5  25   9 /  50   0   0  10
Hereford TX                32   9  28  11 /  30  40   0  10
Lipscomb TX                27  10  26  13 /  20   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   28  10  26  12 /  20  10   0  10
Shamrock TX                32  13  29  12 /  20  10   0   0
Wellington TX              35  14  29  13 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ001-
     006.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...89