Memphis, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

514
FXUS64 KMEG 061901
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
201 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through the next several
  days, with afternoon heat indices generally between 100 and
  105.

- An upper level trough will move through the mid-Mississippi
  River Valley during the midweek. This system will bring
  increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms to the Midsouth,
  as well as a slight moderation in daytime heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Typical early/mid summer weather will prevail over the Midsouth
this week. Some weakness in the upper level ridging will result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms north of I-40 into this
evening. Additional rain chances will extend from north central
MS to the TN River, associated with a weak inverted low pressure
trough. This activity should mostly dissipate in late afternoon.

Similar conditions will largely persist Monday and Tuesday, but
with enough amplification in the pattern to increase rain chances.
A 500mb ridge over the 4-corners region will amplify to 598dm, as
a downstream trough over the MS River Valley deepens and phases
with a weak easterly wave over the western Gulf. Midlevel height
anomalies over the Midsouth will fall into the slight negative
range, as precipitable water values edge up to around 2.2 inches,
nearing the 99th percentile of July climatology. The net result
will be increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms, peaking
Wednesday and Thursday.

The upper trough will lift slowly east and deamplify by early
Friday, as upper ridging builds across the Gulf. Despite weakening
kinematics, ample daytime instability will support scattered showers
and thunderstorms, particularly east of the MS River during the
heat of the day.

Headed into next weekend, an upper level ridge will remain over
the western U.S. while a progressive northern branch trough
tracks across the upper Midwest. Weak west/northwest flow aloft
will prevail between these features, extending from the central
high plains to the lower OH River Valley. PWAT values near 2
inches, and ample daytime instability will support continued
chances of showers and thunderstorms across the Midsouth next
weekend. Next weekend`s temperatures should be within a degree or
two of this weekend`s, averaging 1-3 degrees above normal.

Except for slightly cooler midweek periods, heat indices may
briefly reach 105 over parts of the delta, southwest of Memphis.
Otherwise, the chances of reaching Heat Advisory criteria over the
Midsouth remains limited.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Main aviation forecast concern will be the potential for
convection this afternoon and later this evening. Early afternoon
radar imagery showing a cluster of showers and storms across NE
AR with isolated activity over NE MS. Despite fairly limited
coverage, PROB30s appear warranted at JBR and TUP. Several runs of
the HRRR have also been hinting at additional development in NE
AR after 03z and have included a PROB30 for this potential. At
MEM/MKL, confidence is too low to mention any thunderstorm
potential. Outside of any storms that develop, VFR conditions are
expected with southerly and southwesterly winds generally 5 knots
or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Hot and humid conditions will prevail this week, accompanied by
light winds. Wetting rainfall will be possible each day, with peak
rain coverage expected Wednesday and Thursday, during the afternoon
and early evening hours.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS