Kingsport, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

645
FXUS64 KMRX 221545
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1045 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

A shortwave can be noted over south Mississippi River Valley on
mid-level water vapor imagery this morning, with a mid-level
cloud shield just off to our west ahead of the impulse. Made some
minor adjustment to hourly sky cover grids with the morning
update, otherwise, the forecast and key messages remain in good
shape. Increasing clouds as the shortwave translates east this
afternoon with cool but warmer temperatures relative to previous
days.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Key Message:

1. Increased cloud cover is expected through the day with
temperatures remaining cool but warmer than the past few days.

Discussion:

Currently early this morning, a weak shortwave is approaching from
the west with surface high pressure across the area. The continued
subsidence has promoted another very cold morning. As the shortwave
moves over the area through the day, an increase in cloud cover will
be expected. With very dry air remaining in place, any precipitation
chances will stay well south of our area near the Gulf. This, along
with some southerly flow, will also keep temperatures fairly cool
but still warmer than recent day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 346 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Key Messages:

1. A gradual warming trend will continue into early next week with
temperatures likely rising into the 60s by Tuesday.

2. By Wednesday onward, rain chances return with colder temperatures
and a transition to light snow possible in the mountains. Overall,
rain or snow totals look to be light.

Sunday through Tuesday

At the start of the period, another weak shortwave will be centered
over the Southern Plains. High pressure will also still be in place
but weakened from the short term period. Continued southerly flow
and additional height rises will allow for further warming of
temperatures further in the 40s to around 50. This shortwave will
move over the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Moisture will
still remain to our south with the result being another increase in
cloud cover. By Tuesday, the upper-level flow will become more zonal
with additional height rises promoting a further increase in
temperatures, likely into the 60s.

Wednesday through Friday

By Wednesday, another shortwave will come into view with a
developing surface front located just north of the Ohio River
Valley. Moisture transport ahead of the front will be sufficient for
a return in rain chances as the front moves through the area
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Behind the front, colder air
will arrive with the rain changing over to light snow in the
mountains. A lot will depend on how much moisture lingers and how
the low-level flow is oriented with the terrain, but current
model guidance suggests some potential for high elevation snow. By
Friday, even deeper upper-level troughing is expected, which will
likely drop temperatures even further across the region. With
varying indications of additional moisture moving in, some more
light snow showers are possible in the mountains. But in most
places, a light rain or rain snow mix is the most likely outcome.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

A quiet TAF period is expected through the day. Winds will
generally be from the southwest around 10 kts. Clouds will move
in during the middle of the day with some ceilings possible around
10,000 feet AGL. Fog is also unlikely again tonight into Sunday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             50  27  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  47  24  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       47  23  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  21  46  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION...BW