Gallatin, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

221
FXUS64 KOHX 180759
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
159 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 156 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

 - Rain showers changing to scattered snow showers tonight. A
   dusting to half inch possible by Sunday morning. Up to an inch
   on the Upper Cumberland by noon Sunday.

 - All of Middle TN will experience dangerously cold conditions
   with temperatures below freezing for 72+ hours starting tonight.

 - Wind Chills Monday morning will be 0 to -10 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 156 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Widespread light to moderate rain is abound at forecast time as our
latest weather system starts to swing through the region.
Expectations are for these showers to continue pushing eastward over
the next several hours and after 6 am, I think most of Middle TN
will be rainfree. However, this shouldn`t be the case all day. CAMs
show development of light rain/drizzly conditions this afternoon
east of I-65. Of course, no one cares about the liquid stuff.
Everyone wants to know about the snow, ammiright?

Shortly after sunset, temperatures are going to start falling from
west to east as the cold air rushes into the mid-state behind the
front. As it does tonight, a changeover from the liquid stuff to all
snow is expected as atmospheric profiles become supportive of ice
nucleation. This is where we start to see a change from last night`s
forecast. If you`ve been following along, we`ve been adjusting
snowfall totals up slightly with each forecast package. Let it be
said, there are a couple of CAMs that are suggesting 3-4 inches in
one or two spots on the Upper Cumberland. Here`s why: since last
night, models have introduced another impulse rounding the base of
the overall trough across the eastern CONUS. This allows for snow
chances into Sunday afternoon, especially on the Plateau. A longer
period of time for snow chances is what`s accounting for the higher
amounts. At this time, I have low confidence on 3-4 inches, mainly
because even LREF probs through Sunday afternoon only have a 30%
chance of more than an inch total on the Upper Cumberland. NBM is
even lower. With surface winds shifting to the northwest Sunday
morning (which allows for better upslope lifting and potentially
more snow) I`m going to bump totals from what we had yesterday. That
means up to an inch of snow on the Upper Cumberland with maybe 20%
of that region seeing upwards of 1.5 inches. For the rest of Middle
TN, I will maintain a dusting for most of the area with an outside
chance a few spots could see up to 1/2". With the low confidence of
1+ inches, I`m going to refrain from issuing any Winter Weather
headlines at this time and let the day shift have one more set of
model runs to decide if they want the headline for the Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 156 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

I`ve squabbled over 1 inch of snow for an entire paragraph and
haven`t even gotten to the real threat: the arctic air. That part of
the forecast has not changed. When we fall below freezing
tonight, we will remain below freezing through at least Wednesday
afternoon. During that time frame, morning lows are going to be
downright bitter. Combined with the cold, it`s going to be breezy
Monday morning. This is going to drive Wind Chill values close to
zero for a majority of the area and those east of I-65 could get
close to -10 degrees. Will likely need a headline for this, but
let`s get through the snow potential before we start issuing
those. Bottom line: these are going to be dangerous
temperatures/wind chills Monday morning.

Most of the rest of the week, other than being cold, should be dry.
Models are still leaving us out of the winter weather potential on
Tuesday (should be south of us) and our next weather system should
start rearing its head by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Rain is moving in from southwest to northeast with the heaviest
falling through the overnight hours. MVFR cigs and vis can be
expected during this time with cigs dropping to IFR by daybreak.
Southerly winds will remain gusty overnight with gusts between
20-25 kts. Winds will shift out of the north behind the cold front
around 18Z. Light showers and low cigs will linger through the
remainder of the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      53  27  31  11 /  50  30  40   0
Clarksville    48  25  28   8 /  30  30  30   0
Crossville     48  25  30   3 /  60  50  50   0
Columbia       53  26  31   9 /  60  30  30   0
Cookeville     49  26  30   7 /  50  60  50   0
Jamestown      47  24  28   4 /  50  70  70   0
Lawrenceburg   54  27  31   8 /  70  30  30   0
Murfreesboro   53  27  31   8 /  60  30  40   0
Waverly        50  24  29   9 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Baggett