Cleveland, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

142
FXUS64 KMRX 290150 AAB
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
950 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Some isolated showers continue in parts of the forecast area this
evening, but fully expect these to diminish with time for a mostly dry
overnight period. Towards daybreak, isentropic ascent will begin
to spread back into the region from the southwest which will spark
off additional shower activity as we head into the daytime hours.
NBM PoPs looked ok with regards to where it had rain chances for
the rest of the evening (central TN valley mostly) so I went
largely with that, but did undercut the values bit. Otherwise no
notable changes seemed necessary for the evening update.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

.Key Messages...
1. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm through this
evening and again Thursday afternoon/evening.
2. Fog development overnight some locally dense.

Discussion:

- Currently an area of convergence along the Plateau with MLCAPES
  of 500-800 J/Kg. Limited shear and forcing but enough for
  scattered convection. This area will showers and possibly a
  thunderstorm will move across the area through this evening.

- For Tonight, the vertical profile will dry out except for the
  surface and boundary layer. This will allow for greater coverage
  of fog development through early Thursday morning. Some of the
  fog will likely be dense. Drizzle or light showers will be
  possible.

- For Thursday, fog and low-clouds will slowly erode in the
  morning allowing for the return of afternoon sunshine.
  Convective development mainly near area terrain features is
  expected. Instability is marginal with CAPES of 500-1000 and
  limited shear so strong to severe storms are not anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

Key Messages:
1. Widespread showers and possibly a thunderstorm late Thursday
night and Friday morning.
2. Scattered mainly afternoon and early evening showers Saturday.
3. Drier and warmer conditions return for early next week.

Discussion:

- A short-wave trough will move across the Tennessee valley and
  southern Appalachians late Thursday night and Friday morning
  with associated frontal passage. Instability is rather limited
  with CAPES of 500. Strong synoptic forcing with jet structure
  enhancing fronto-genetic forcing along the front will produce
  widespread showers with an embedded thunder possible. A rather
  cool, cloudy and rainy day is in store. Ensemble QPF
  probabilities favors 0.5 inch over much of the area with higher
  amounts across the mountains.

- An upper trough will remain over the area Friday night through
  Saturday night. The unseasonably cool air aloft will produce
  enough instability for Saturday to produce scattered showers and
  possible a thunderstorm by late morning through the early
  evening. Greatest coverage will be across the far east Tennessee
  mountains and areas along and north of interstate 40.

- For early next week, upper trough moves slowly east allowing for
  upper and surface ridging to build into the area. Drier airmass
  and eventually rising heights will allow for warmer
  temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

A few showers remain across the area this evening, through
lightning has remained along and south of the TN/GA border. HREF
probabilities of fog and/or low cigs increase overnight into early
Thursday morning. Probabilities of low cigs are generally greater
than those for fog, and highest confidence in reduced flight
categories are for the northern and central valley locations(TRI &
TYS). VFR conditions return late Thursday morning into the
afternoon with light winds 10kts or less out of the west-
southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  79  64  76 /  20  50  60  90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  64  79  62  72 /  30  50  60 100
Oak Ridge, TN                       63  78  62  72 /  20  50  60  90
Tri Cities Airport, TN              61  78  60  70 /  30  50  50 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...KRS