Bartlett, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

458
FXUS64 KMEG 061753
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1247 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Warm and humid conditions will continue each day, with high
  temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the
  upper 90s to low 100s.

- Heat headlines may be needed heading into the workweek,
  especially across the delta regions, where heat index values
  could exceed 105 degrees.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon (20% to 40%)
  with even greater chances (40% to 60%) for the start of the
  workweek, mainly in the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Another muggy night is on display at this hour with current
temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s under mostly clear skies
with calm winds across much of the of the area. Given the
aforementioned conditions along a present low-level inversion, a
few locations have begun to fog. Fog will spread across mainly
low-lying river areas as we edge closer to sunrise. Fog should
lift shortly after sunrise as a slight uptick in winds occurs.

Another warm and humid day is on tap for our Sunday with highs in
the low to mid 90s. As the NBM continues to slightly overdue
dewpoints, we opted to hold off on the issuance of any heat products
today. A few locations in the delta regions could see heat index
values around 105F this afternoon, though the LREF and HREF continue
to hint at a less than 20% chance of heat indices exceeding 104F
across any part of the Mid-South today. As far as precipitation
goes, confidence has increased in isolated pop-up summer-time
convection for this afternoon as a weak shortwave ejects from the
Upper-Mississippi Valley. Greatest chances for thunderstorm
development (20-40%) will be confined to mainly along and north of I-
40 given the orient and location of the aforementioned shortwave.

Heading into the workweek, dewpoints do look to pull along return
flow and an increased moisture profile ahead of an ejecting
shortwave from the Middle Mississippi Valley. As dewpoints
increase, so will apparent temperatures.. As such, heat products
will likely be needed beginning tomorrow and continuing through
the latter part of the week. Decisions on such will be evaluated
on a day to day basis, though something to keep an eye on.
Monday`s shortwave will also give lift to diurnal pop-up afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Come Tuesday, increased upper-level
support in the form of a weak upper-level low moving into the
Upper-Mississippi valley will lead to yet another day of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms (40-60%). Coverage will begin
to dwindle around sunset.

A stationary boundary setting up over the cusp of the Upper
Mississippi and the Ohio River tomorrow afternoon and remaining
through much of the workweek will aid shower and thunderstorm
chances through much of the latter half of the week. Wednesday and
Thursday look to be the wettest days of the week as the
aforementioned trough edges closer to the Mid-South and
eventually centering over our area by Wednesday evening. Bottom
line, keep those umbrellas handy each day this week. On a good
note, flooding is not expected to be a concern this week as 5 day
rainfall totals equate to around an inch. Looks like this hot and
humid pattern will be here to stay as the latest 8-10 day
temperature and precipitation outlook have us slightly above
normal.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Main aviation forecast concern will be the potential for
convection this afternoon and later this evening. Early afternoon
radar imagery showing a cluster of showers and storms across NE
AR with isolated activity over NE MS. Despite fairly limited
coverage, PROB30s appear warranted at JBR and TUP. Several runs of
the HRRR have also been hinting at additional development in NE
AR after 03z and have included a PROB30 for this potential. At
MEM/MKL, confidence is too low to mention any thunderstorm
potential. Outside of any storms that develop, VFR conditions are
expected with southerly and southwesterly winds generally 5 knots
or less.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum for the foreseeable
future as minimum relative humidity values remain greater than or
equal to 50%. Increased fog potential along light winds cannot be
ruled out each morning heading into the workweek. Afternoon
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon,
through much of this week, though amounts will be generally less
than a tenth of an inch.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...TAB